Familiar foes, Nottingham Forest and Manchester United, meet for the fourth and final time this season at the City Ground today where the two patched-up outfits will pursue points for different reasons.
Forest have won only once in ten attempts in the Premier League since their elimination at the hands of United in the Carabao Cup semi-finals in February, though the Red Devils have had issues of their own to contend with, particularly on the road where they have recovered a win just once in five outings in the top tier.
Below, you can dive straight into my stats pack for today’s fascinating tussle which has everything you need to attack the bet builder markets with confidence later on. Read through my Stats Pack Guide for some more bet builder pointers.
Predicted Lineups
The treatment room at Nottingham Forest is filled to the brim with walking wounded at the moment and Chris Wood, Willy Boly, Giulian Biancone, Omar Richards, Ryan Yates, Cheikhou Kouyaté and Moussa Niakhaté are all out of action.
With Serge Aurier, Emmanuel Dennis, Renan Lodi and Gustavo Scarpa also considered doubtful, it will be interesting to see what kind of XI manager Steve Cooper manages to get on the pitch. Former United starlet Jesse Lingard will be desperate to feature against his former employers.
Man Utd lost both first-choice centre-halves, Varane and Martinez, to injury on Thursday evening against Sevilla and Harry Maguire should earn a start at the City Ground in their absence alongside Victor Lindelof or Luke Shaw, if the latter shakes off an injury in time to play.
Casemiro is back from suspension and will anchor the midfield, while Christian Eriksen and Anthony Martial will be also pushing to start. Bruno Fernandes could reprise his slightly deeper role alongside Casemiro. Marcus Rashford remains a major doubt in the final third.
Team Stats
Forest dropped into the relegation zone following their 2-0 reverse at Aston Villa last weekend, though several of their underlying stats seem to suggest they might be sitting in a false position.
Four teams have poorer shots against per 90 figures, while seven different outfits have been shipping more attempts on target. However, just one side in the division (Everton) has notched fewer goals than Forest so far. Interestingly, BTTS has landed in six of Forest’s last eight assignments, an option that can be added to coupons at 3/4 today.
United continue to hit peaks and troughs in Erik ten Hag’s first campaign at the helm and while the Red Devils’ stats across the board are above average in the main, they haven’t excelled at much.
The Manchester giants rank sixth for xG per 90, and fifth for both shots and shots on target, while they are all the way down in eighth position for xG against (p/90), and David de Gea has been a bit overworked at times. United have at least, been improving their disciplinary record, whereas Forest have jumped to the top of the pile for bookings collected. The hosts are a generous 8/13 to amass over 1.5 cards this afternoon.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
21-year-old Welsh winger Brennan Johnson has been a real bright spark for Forest this season and he tops the rankings in the shots on target per 90 arena for the Tricky Trees. Johnson had landed an accurate blow when Forest last played United in February, and he is priced at 5/6 to test David de Gea with at least one strike again today.
Jonjo Shelvey doesn’t make the list in terms of raw numbers, however, the 31-year-old routinely enjoys a punt from long range and he’s had at least one speculative effort in four of his last five runouts. Shelvey is available to back at 2/5 to lodge just a single shot later on.
With Marcus Rashford sidelined, United have had to change tack a little in the final third, and their players seemed to take it in turns to have cracks on goal against Sevilla on Thursday evening.
Brazilian Antony had four attempts, with Casemiro (three) and Marcel Sabitzer (two) next in line. Austrian Sabitzer, who has been deployed in a more advanced role of late, is of interest at 5/6 to clock another shot on target against Forest, while Casemiro – who is a magnet for the ball from set plays – is a big price at 17/10 in the same market.
Player Goals and Assists
Brennan Johnson has been Forest’s most incisive attacker by some distance in 2022/23, chipping in with eight goals and two assists in 28 Premier League starts since August. The 21-year-old seems likeliest to do some damage at 15/8 in the score/assist market this afternoon.
Morgan Gibbs-White hasn’t been hitting the heights expected of him this term, though the 23-year-old did notch an assist when Man City visited the City Ground in February and he has the capabilities to trouble another Manchester giant today. Gibbs-White can be added to dockets at 7/2 if you think he can provide another assist.
Much has been made of Marcus Rashford’s recent injury and the possible derailment effect in might have on United’s campaign, however, despite their bizarre late capitulation, the Red Devils did look like a threatening attacking force for much of Thursday’s UEL tie against Sevilla.
Marcel Sabitzer, operating as a sort of false nine, scored twice against the Spanish outfit and he could worm his way into some more dangerous positions at the City Ground. The 29-year-old is an option of interest at 16/5 to net anytime again. Antony Martial meanwhile, who followed up a goal against Everton with an assist against Sevilla this week, is 5/6 to either bag or create a goal again this afternoon.
Player passes
Only Bournemouth have been clocking lower possession per game figures than Nottingham Forest this season and the Reds probably can’t be counted on to keep the ball under wraps for large swathes of this afternoon’s fixture.
Centre-half Joe Worrall tends to see more passing action than many of his teammates, though you need to dig into the 50+ passes ranges to hit pay dirt today, a target Worral has beaten just four times in his last eight starts. Neco Williams might be a more palatable pick at 3/10 to top 30 passes. The Wales international has jumped that barrier in two of his last four starts.
With Lisandro Martinez out and Luke Shaw a doubt, United could be without two of their keenest passers today, though Bruno Fernandes has been increasing his distribution output from a deeper role of late and he hit 100 or more passes in each of his last two Premier League runouts.
Bruno is 8/13 to rack up a more modest 70+ passes against Forest, which looks achievable, while Tyrell Malacia, who hit 68 and 50 passes in his last two starts against Everton and Sevilla, could be a nice coupon padder at 4/11 to muster at least 50 again.
Nottingham Forest Cards and Fouls
Midfield at the City Ground should be a hotbed of action today especially with combative Forest duo Orel Mangala and Remo Freuler both patrolling those choppy waters. Hard-working Swiss international Remo Freuler looks a snip at 4/11 to commit 1+ fouls, while Mangala, who has sinned three times in as many appearances, is 2/9 in the same market.
If Renan Lodi fails to prove his fitness in time, Harry Toffolo could feature at left back. The 27-year-old has looked uneasy of late, picking up two cards in his last three apperances, and he won’t relish the prospect of marking United’s livewire winger, Antony.
Fellow Brazilian internationals, Antony and Casemiro, alongside Portuguese star Bruno Fernandes are listed among Man Utd’s most-fouled players this term and each member of that bruise-covered trio could be on the receiving end again at the City Ground.
Casemiro will have Orel Mangala for close company when the 31-year-old is setting the tempo, while Bruno Fernandes will have Remo Freuler on his tail when eyeing up his defence-splitting passes. Antony can frustrate on the right, though he generally drags his marker into a physical battle and Toffolo will have his work cut out on the flank.
Match-Ups to watch
Orel Mangala vs Casemiro
Harry Toffolo vs Antony
Remo Freuler vs Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United Cards and Fouls
Casemiro will probably have his good boy cap on following his recent return from suspension, though small fouls will still be the order of the day for the destroyer and the 31-year-old could be a decent pick up at 1/2 to commit 2+ fouls at the City Ground.
At left back, Tyrell Malacia has become a bit of a serial fouler and his habit of committing to unnecessary challenges saw him give away three free kicks against Everton last weekend. The Dutchman is 8/13 in the same market as Casemiro. Harry Maguire meanwhile, could be worth a look at 4/9 in the 1+ fouls department. The club captain doesn’t thrive against pace and Forest’s frontline is full of it.
Morgan Gibbs-White is often tasked with being Forest’s creative conduit and their link man between midfield and attack and the 23-year-old will be floating in the same spaces Casemiro will be trying to defend. The potential for fouls in that head-to-head feels high.
Brennan Johnson wields a cocktail of acceleration and technique that could extract some more mistimed challenges from Tyrell Malacia in wide areas, while Emmanuel Dennis, who is adept at winning free-kicks from enthusiastic markets, could make Harry Maguire look a little foolish if he manages to isolate the Three Lions regular in one-on-one situations.
Match-Ups to watch
Casemiro vs Morgan Gibbs-White
Tyrell Malacia vs Brennan Johnson
Harry Maguire vs Emmanuel Dennis
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
There are some tasty looking selections on offer in this one, and you can take a look at my thoughts on a bet builder at odds of *** below.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
16th April
kick off 16:30 Antony 1+ shots on Target Over 2.5 Match cards Remo Freuler 1+ fouls Tyrell Malacia 2+ fouls
