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Nottingham Forest are embroiled in a fierce relegation scrap and have a possible points deduction looming in the background, as they prepare to host Newcastle United.
Newcastle, meanwhile, are battling to get back into European contention. They head into this clash following a crazy 4-4 draw vs Luton last week. Under the floodlights, this has the feel of a pulsating Premier League clash.
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Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle predicted lineups
Midweek extra time endeavours could hurt Forest
Nuno Espirito Santo continues to be short-handed this month with some players still on international duty. Serge Aurier and Ibrahim Sangare remain out along with Ola Aina. Top striker Taiwo Awoniyi should at least spearhead the attack with Chris Wood potentially injured for 1-2 months. Morgan Gibbs-White hobbled off in midweek vs Bristol City, a match which went all the way to penalties. He will face a late fitness test but might be risked. Right back Gonzalo Montiel also picked up an injury in that game so Neco Williams is likely to start in a potential 3-4-2-1 system.
Harvey Barnes boost for Newcastle
Two important players Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon are more than likely ruled out here due to injury. The Toon Army still have long term casualties Joe Willock, Nick Pope and Matt Targett who won’t be available. Callum Wilson should start upfront after a full week of training. One good piece of news for Eddie Howe has been the return of left winger Harvey Barnes, who should make his first start since late September. Dan Burn’s position in the team at left back must surely come under threat from Tino Livramento following a shocking performance against Luton last week.
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle team stats
Forest continue to concede goals and corners
Forest have struggled for goals this season although they have a better record since Nuno Espirito Santo took charge. Of greater concern has been their defensive performance, conceding a hefty 1.78 goals per game on average. The Tricky Trees have consistently been giving up corners at an average of 6.74 per game.
Newcastle backline has been overachieving
Newcastle average over two goals per game which is backed up by their impressive xGF numbers. Newcastle have defensive issues and conceded four times vs Luton last week. Their xGA of 1.75 per game is worrying. The Toon Army have conceded over five shots on target per game. Corners and cards are just at a mediocre level for Newcastle fixtures.
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle shots and shots on target stats
Forest could struggle for shots
Forest average less than 11 shots per game and are more of a counter-attacking side who don’t shoot that freely. Taiwo Awoniyi and Morgan Gibbs-White are the primary players to look at in the shooting markets. Awoniyi is 1.40 to have a shot on target which should be within his reach. The 1.20 that he has two or more shots could be decent bet builder material. Gibbs-White is always a danger and should be on set pieces so another bet builder addition could be him to have two or more attempts at 1.36.
Wilson to seize the moment
With Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon injured, this is a chance for Callum Wilson to shine and make an impression. He has a high shot count per 90 (3.38) and his accuracy is well over 50%. He is the shortest price of any player in this game to have at least one shot on target (1.29) which should be easily achievable. The same can be said for him to have three or more shots at 1.44. Harvey Barnes would like to mark his starting return with some success so the 1.36 that he has two or more shots looks like cracking bet builder material. Youngster Lewis Miley just to have one shot or more at 1.20 is another possibility.
Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle goals and assists stats
Be alert for Awoniyi value
Taiwo Awoniyi is always such a massive threat for Forest when he is in the side and the Nigerian should fancy his chances against this Newcastle defence. He netted vs Arsenal at home and is priced at 2.75 to do it again here. If he is fit enough to start then Morgan Gibbs-White should cause Newcastle plenty of problems, he’s 2.50 to score or assist.
Barnes threat can’t be ignored
Harvey Barnes looked like an excellent signing for Newcastle back in the summer but he suffered a bad injury at the end of September which has kept him out for several months. He made a scoring return off the bench vs Luton last week and he must fancy his chances again here. He is 3.50 to score at anytime or 2.10 to score or assist. Callum Wilson is 2.40 to hit the back of the net which is always a price worth considering for a starting Newcastle striker.
Nottingham Forest CARDS AND FOULS stats
Yates to be late on some challenges
Forest are mid table for cards received in the Premier League this season with 49 yellows and 3 reds. They are middle of the road for fouls at 11.20 per game. Due to his high numbers Ryan Yates should be backed to commit two or more fouls at 1.36. This looks highly likely considering his persistent fouling and a decent bet builder addition. Moussa Niakhate returns from AFCON duty and stands out at 4.0 to be carded.
Newcastle are the third most fouled team in the Premier League at 12.70 per game. They’ve drawn nearly three cards per game from the opposition and several of their players will create a significant challenge. Bruno Guimaraes is a total foul magnet in the middle of the park managing to draw a huge average of 3.06 fouls per 90. This adds significant weight on Yates to commit multiple fouls or even go in the book. Harvey Barnes has had limited minutes this season but could be a bag of tricks on the left wing. Neco Williams might be in for a tough match.
newcastle cards and fouls stats
Bruno Guimaraes booking looks value
Newcastle have improved their discipline this season and only average 2.35 cards per game. They are one of just two teams in the Premier League yet to pick up a red card this campaign. The Magpies have also significantly reduced their foul count to just 10.70 per game. With Joelinton out injured all eyes are on Bruno Guimaraes who leads Newcastle for cards obtained. Guimaraes is 3.25 to be carded and 1.91 to commit two or more fouls. Both could be added to your Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle bet builder.
Forest are only fouled 9.70 times on average in each game which is the fifth lowest rate in the Premier League. If Morgan Gibbs-White starts then it would give them a major boost and also enable them to draw more fouls. The battle between Bruno Guimaraes and Yates in midfield could be explosive with both worth a look for a card.
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