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Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Olympiacos vs Fiorentina

Calendar 29th May
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Olympiacos to have 4+ shots on target
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Olympiacos have averaged 4.60 shots on target per game in their eight Conference League games.

They have hit 4+ shots on target in seven of their eight Conference League games, and took 12+ shots in each of their six games prior to the semi-final win over Aston Villa.

Football icon Over 4.5 Fiorentina corners
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Fiorentina have had 5+ corners in ten of their last 11 Conference League games, and average 7.15 per game for the tournament.

Olympiacos have conceded 4.37 per game in the Conference League, and have allowed 6+ corners in four straight games in the competition.

Football icon Konstantinos Fortounis to have 1+ shots on target
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Fortounis averages the second-most shots on target per 90 of any Olympiacos player in the competition at 0.89 per 90.

He has had at least two shots in all eight of Olympiacos’ games in the Conference League this season, and has had 1+ shots on target in six of these eight.

Football icon Francisco Ortega to commit 1+ fouls
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Ortega has committed 0.88 fouls per 90 in this competition, and has fouled at least once in five of his last six European games.

He is up against Nicolas Gonzalez, who draws 3.56 fouls per 90 in the Conference League, and has drawn 2+ fouls in nine straight European games.

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The Europa Conference League final is upon us, and after last week’s thrilling Europa League final in Dublin we could be in for a treat.

Last season’s beaten finalists Fiorentina are once again one game away from a first European title since their 1961 European Cup Winners’ Cup triumph, while a win for Olympiacos would be a first continental title of any kind for the club.

The side from Piraeus would in fact be the first Greek side to win a European title, and are only the second team from their nation to reach a European final after Panathinaikos lost out in the 1971 European Cup final.

Not only are we expecting some great football but we also see plenty of intriguing betting angles, so have a read of our carefully researched bet builder tips and pick your favourites to craft yourself a Wednesday night winner.

The Stats Pack Guide is a great resource at this stage of the season with titles being decided and the Euros ahead of us, the article explains how to find value in the data.

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Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Predicted Lineups

Only two changes from Jose Luis Mendilibar

Veteran Spanish coach Mendilibar did have to play a full-strength side for Olympiacos’ last game of the season as they fought back from 2-0 down with ten men to draw with fourth-placed Panathinaikos and beat their opponents to the third and final European spot in the Greek Super League. The players have, however, had a week and a half to rest since that game, meaning only two changes are expected here. Joao Carvalho will drop to the bench as Vicente Iborra returns in midfield, meaning a slight shift in formation from 4-2-3-1 to 4-3-3. One more change is expected in the backline, coming at left back.

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Back to full-strength from Italiano

Fiorentina rested many of their starters for the final game of the season, and Vincenzo Italiano is expected to ring the changes here. In defence, Lucas Martinez Quarta will return in place of Luca Ranieri at centre-back, while the forward line should see just Andrea Belotti retain his place, as Christian Kouame, Lucas Beltran and Nicolas Gonzalez are recalled to play in front of Giacomo Bonaventura and Rolando Mandragora in a 4-2-3-1 shape.

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Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Team Stats

Overall shots on target a nice option for Olympiacos

The Greek side have averaged 4.60 shots on target per game across their Conference League campaign, having at least four shots on target in seven of their eight games since dropping into the competition from the Europa League. They had four and five shots on target in their two games against Aston Villa in the semi-finals and had taken at least 12 shots in total in each of their six games earlier in the competition. Backing them to have four or more shots on target here at 1.67 looks to offer great value.

Team Stats1 1

Corners look a solid bet for La Viola

Fiorentina have averaged 7.15 corners per game in the Conference League so far this season. Vincenzo Italiano’s side have taken at least five corners in ten of their last 11 games in the competition and have had seven or more in four of their last five, including a ridiculous tally of 19 in the home leg of their quarter-final clash with Viktoria Plzen. Olympiacos meanwhile have conceded 4.37 corners per game and have allowed six or more corners in each of their last four games in the Conference League. Overall then, backing Fiorentina to have five or more corners at 1.53 looks like great value, while backing them to have six or more at 2.0 could be a solid option to boost your odds.

Team Stats 11 1

Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Players to Watch

Ayoub El Kaabi the favourite for a reason

El Kaabi is far and away the most prolific Olympiacos player when it comes to shots on target here, his 1.63 per 90 in the Conference League far outperforms the contributions of anyone else. The Morocco international takes 2.75 shots per 90 in this competition and has had a shot on target in six of his eight games so far this season. He can be backed at 1.33 for a single shot on target but having had two or more in five of these eight Conference League games to date, it may be worth backing him to have two or more at 2.63 instead.

Konstantinos Fortounis offers the best value

Right-winger Fortounis also has a strong claim in the shots on target markets, having hit 0.89 per 90 in the Conference League this season, the second-most of any Olympiacos player. Having played the full 90 in each of his last five games in the competition he should have plenty of time to notch a shot on target here and looks a good bet to do so at 1.57. Fortounis has had at least one shot on target in six of his eight games in the Conference League and has taken at least two shots in all eight, suggesting he is unlikely to be kept out of the game by Fiorentina here.

Longshot hunters should look at David Carmo

Centre-back David Carmo offers an interesting option from centre-back here. Olympiacos may not match Fiorentina for total corners, but they have averaged 4.14 in this competition this season, and Carmo is their biggest set piece threat. The Angola international has averaged 1.15 shots per 90 in the Conference League, with 0.34 shots on target per 90. He has notched three shots on target in the knockout stages so far and has racked up an impressive tally of ten shots, having six against Fenerbahce across the two legs of their quarter-finals. Available at 5.0 for a shot on target here, Carmo looks hugely undervalued as an aerial threat from set pieces.

Andrea Belotti looks a solid choice

Veteran Italian striker Belotti takes the most shots per 90 (4.47) and has the second-most shots on target per 90 (1.06) of any Fiorentina player in this competition this season. Across his six appearances in the knockout stages, Belotti has taken at least two shots in each game, racking up four or more in three of these six. He has notched at least one shot on target in four of his last five games here, and with a slightly better price than Nicolas Gonzalez, with Belotti available at 1.44 for a shot on target here, looks to offer the best reward for the least risk amongst Fiorentina’s attacking options.

Worth a look at Giacomo Bonaventura

Bonaventura has played in a variety of midfield roles this season and will be deployed as a holding midfielder here, alongside Rolando Mandragora. Surprisingly, Bonaventura has had two of his three shots on target in this competition in the two games in which he played as a defensive midfielder, and that is something to consider here. He has taken 3.59 shots per 90 in the Conference League, and with Olympiacos likely to be defending deep for much of the game, he should get chances to shoot from deep. With Bonaventura hitting a shot on target in three of his five appearances in this competition, backing him to have another here at 1.73 looks a solid bet.

Martinez Quarta is undervalued here

Fiorentina centre-back Lucas Martinez Quarta has notched a ridiculous tally of 2.65 shots per 90 in this competition this season, taking two or more shots in all but one of his eight appearances from the group stage onwards. He scored twice in the group stages and has had four shots on target across his nine games in the competition. With Fiorentina expected to rack up a high corner tally in this final, backing the Argentine defender to have a shot on target at 3.75 looks an appealing longshot option here.

Olympiacos vs Fiorentina Matchups to Watch

Panagiotis Retsos vs Andrea Belotti

Greece international centre-back Retsos going up against Italy international striker Andrea Belotti looks like it will become a real battle here. Retsos commits more fouls in this competition than any other Olympiacos player at 1.43 per 90, while Belotti draws the second-most fouls of any Fiorentina player in the competition at 2.55 per 90. Retsos has committed a foul in five of his six games, while Belotti has drawn fouls in each of his last five European games, drawing two or more in four of these five. Retsos can be backed to commit a foul at 1.25, and Belotti can be backed to win two fouls or more at 1.25, or 3+ at 1.83.

Kostas Fortounis vs Nikola Milenkovic

No player has drawn more fouls than Fortounis’ 2.91 per 90 for Olympiacos in the Conference League this season. The Greek winger has won four fouls or more in three of his eight games and has won at least two fouls in six of his eight appearances. He will be up against Dodo and Nikola Milenkovic, the latter committing the second-most fouls for Fiorentina in this competition, at 1.92 per 90, and picking up four bookings along the way. The Serbian centre-back has committed two or more fouls in four of his last five in Europe and can be backed to do so again at 2.30 here, Fortounis can be backed to win two or more fouls at 1.67.

Daniel Podence vs Lucas Martinez Quarta

Ex-Wolves man Daniel Podence is a strong option to win a foul here, with the Portuguese winger having done so in each of his seven appearances in the Conference League this season, and averaging 1.45 fouls won per 90, the third-most of any Olympiacos player. Podence will be up against Quarta and Cristiano Biraghi, both of whom sit in the top five for Fiorentina fouls in the Conference League at 2.21 and 1.44 per 90 respectively. Podence can be backed to win a foul at 1.33, while Quarta, who has fouled in six of his eight appearances in this competition, can be backed to commit a foul at 1.30.

Francisco Ortega vs Nicolas Gonzalez

The best value option for Olympiacos fouls comes from left-back Francisco Ortega. The Argentine full-back has committed 0.88 fouls per 90 in the Conference League, the fifth-most of any player for the Greek side and has fouled in five of his last six in this competition, yet still sits as high as 1.62 to commit a single foul here. His matchups make this an even stronger bet, going up against Nicolas Gonzalez and Fiorentina’s right-back Dodo, who win 3.56 and 1.90 fouls per 90 respectively. Gonzalez is worth backing in the fouls won markets too, having won at least two fouls in nine straight Conference League games. He can be backed to make it ten in a row here at 1.40, great value considering his record to date.

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