Portugal vs Croatia Betting Tips and Stats

Back Bruno Fernandes to be fouled at least twice when Portugal face Croatia on Friday night.

The Portuguese playmaker tends to find himself in the thick of the midfield battle, which naturally leads to him being on the receiving end of some robust challenges. That was certainly the case during the group stage, with Fernandes fouled in each of his 3 outings, earning multiple free kicks against DR Congo and Colombia. That trait was also evident in each of Portugal’s final two friendlies in the build-up to the World Cup, with Fernandes brought down 2 times against both Chile and Nigeria. The same was also true in a friendly against Mexico in March.

Fernandes is likely to come in for plenty of close attention from Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic during this contest. The experienced Croatian midfield pair committed a combined total of 4 fouls across Croatia’s group games with England and Panama, which only strengthens the case for backing Fernandes to be fouled 2+ times again here.

I think Renato Veiga looks well worthy of support to be fouled at least once.

The Portuguese defender is the more progressive of Selecao’s two centre-halves, regularly driving forward with the ball into midfield. Between that and the physical duels that he is naturally involved in when going about his defensive duties, he is quite adept at drawing fouls. In fact, across his 3 group stage outings, Veiga was fouled once in 2 of those. While Veiga only started 2 games during the qualification campaign, he still earned multiple free kicks in a home game with Hungary. His foul-drawing ability was also on show towards the tail end of last season in La Liga, as he earned Villarreal set-pieces in games against both Mallorca and Sevilla.

Where this selection becomes even more attractive is the likelihood of Veiga being in a direct battle with Croatia’s Ante Budimir. The experienced forward leads the line with plenty of aggression, underlined by the fact he has committed 5 fouls across his 2 outings at the 2026 World Cup thus far. Moreover, Budimir was committing an average of 1.04 fouls per 90 during World Cup qualification.

Look for Portugal’s clash with Croatia to produce over 8.5 corners. This should be a lively encounter, with neither side likely to sit back, and that should result in a steady stream of corners.

The numbers certainly support that train of thought. Two of Croatia’s three group stage matches cleared the over 8.5 line, with their encounter against England producing 10 corners and their meeting with Panama delivering 9. Moreover, during World Cup qualification, Croatia’s matches averaged a whopping 12.38 corners per game, while warm-up fixtures against Colombia and Slovenia generated 10 and 12 corners respectively.

As for Portugal, their clash with DR Congo featured 9 flag kicks, with the Africans winning 4 of those, which suggests to me that Croatia are more than capable of contributing here. It’s also worth noting that 3 of Portugal’s final 4 World Cup qualifiers produced at least 9 corners, with Roberto Martinez’s side single-handedly clearing the over 8.5 hurdle in 2 of those matches.

Adding further weight to the case is the fact that Portugal’s pre-tournament friendly fixtures against the USA and Chile produced 10 and 12 corners.