Portugal vs Spain betting Tips and Stats

Spain may not have looked their free-flowing best during the group stages, but they certainly made a statement against Austria. They very rarely lost the ball, and created chances aplenty; if anyone is going to benefit from those chances, it’s Mikel Oyarzabal, and I think Spain’s frontman can have the final say against Portugal.

I think the Sociedad man’s lack of bite in front of goal can be forgiven somewhat against the likes of Cap Verde and Uruguay, with the Spaniard’s not their usual selves, but the outing against Austria was much more like it. Oyarzabal scored twice in the Round of 32, adding to the two goals he scored against Saudi Arabia. Let’s not forget, he’s a man for the big occasion, having scored the winner in the Euro 2024 Final.

Look back a bit further, and Oyarzabal’s numbers for his country are ridiculous. He’s registered a total of 24 goals and assists combined in his last 16 international starts, and this selection has landed in 14 of those games following the win over Austria.

Now, Portugal are without a doubt Spain’s toughest test yet, but we’ve seen enough to suggest that there are some defensive frailties that can be exploited. Croatia scored once, and had three goals disallowed, against Portugal in the round of 32, whilst Colombia registered an xG of 1.70 off the back of six shots on target against Roberto Martinez’s men.

Let’s be clear, Portugal do present Spain’s toughest test to date, and are arguably one of the strongest nations at the World Cup. However, they really haven’t shown that yet, and I think the biggest question mark for me surrounds the defence. Portugal really struggled to contain the Croatian attack, and the player of focus for me is Ruben Dias.

The Man City centre back certainly wasn’t his usual self last week. He struggled to contend with the physicality of both Budimir and Matanovic, and committed two fouls in the process. That seems a bit of a trend in a Portugal shirt however; no player has committed more fouls in the Portugal squad at the World Cup than Dias despite having played just three games, and he’s committed at least two fouls in his last two.

Dias’ numbers in a Portugal shirt seem to take a sharp rise when playing against stronger opponents as well. He committed a foul in seven of his eight Nations League outings during the 2024/25 campaign against other elite countries, and committed two fouls in four of those games. Against a Spain side with Oyarzabal, who drew two fouls vs Austria, and Olmo driving from the 10, who’s averaging 1.58 fouls drawn P/90, he’ll struggle again.

If Spain dominate anywhere near as much of the ball as they did throughout the group stages, and against Austria, then we could well see a ridiculous corner count once again here. They have everything they need to rack up those numbers; direct wingers that can get in behind and force mistakes, players that will whip crosses in, and it’s a squad that will shoot from every angle. All of those scenarios will lead to corners.

Spain managed a total of nine corners against Austria, with six of those coming in the first half. They’ve won at least six corners in every game they’ve played at the World Cup so far, averaging 8.00 per game. Again, this is nothing new; Spain won at least five corners in five of their six qualifiers, falling just a single corner short away in Turkiye.

As for Portugal, their last two performances do raise some concerns from a defensive standpoint. Croatia managed five corners against them and applied plenty of pressure throughout the 90, whilst Colombia also managed five corners against Portugal in the final game of the group stages. Even DR Congo managed four corners in Portugal’s opener, and that’s despite sitting off for large portions of the game. Spain have even greater levels of quality and should be able to open things up.