Man City vs Man United Bet Builder Tips, Stats, Best Bets, Predictions

Neither Manchester club will be at all happy with their start to the season, but the red side of Manchester at least ended on a high, securing their solitary win in the final game before the international break. Man City, by contrast, come into the derby off the back of consecutive league defeats, so there are likely to be some serious nerves around the Etihad Stadium on Sunday.

With City’s attackers offering little value, it makes sense to back United’s forwards instead, with the bookies heavy favouring of Man City being tough to justify based on their last two showings.

Bryan Mbeumo is the obvious selection, with the former Brentford man having performed admirably despite the struggles of the team around him. He has had at least one shot on target in 3 of his 4 competitive starts for the club, including two in their opening weekend defeat to Arsenal.

He averages 1.31 shots on target per 90 for United so far this season, and averaged 1.10 shots on target per 90 for Brentford in all competitions last season, a campaign which included a shot on target in his last meeting with Man City.

Bruno Fernandes has had at least 2 shots in all 4 of his starts for the Red Devils so far this season, despite concerns that he is being played too deep to make the most of his talents. The United skipper has also now had at least 2 shots in 5 of his last 7 competitive games against Man City, including 3 of his last 4 at the Etihad.

He is continuing a strong vein of shooting form from the back end of the 2024/25 season, where Fernandes had 2 or more shots in 7 of his last 8 starts for United. With the Portugal international therefore hitting this line in 11 of his last 12 starts for the club, it looks like a very promising selection against an extremely weak Man City defence.

The 31-year-old is averaging 2.62 shots per 90 in all competitions for United so far this season. Last season that number was even higher, at 2.80, so this is no early-season statistical fluke. Fernandes shoots often, and that is unlikely to slow down in a high-stakes game which he will be desperate to win.

Another player who relishes the big occasion is Erling Haaland. The City striker had a field day on international duty, plundering 5 goals in an 11-1 win over Moldova for Norway, and will be keen to keep that winning feeling in what is always one of his club’s biggest games of the season.

As shown most notably by his antics in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal at the Etihad last season, Haaland loves to get stuck into the big fixtures, and this one is unlikely to be an exception. He has already amassed a fair few fouls this season, fouling in all 3 league games to date.

At the end of the last campaign, the 25-year-old also fouled in all 3 Club World Cup games in which he played at least 44 minutes, as well as in 4 of his last 6 league fixtures. That means he has fouled in 7 of his last 9 Premier League matches.

The Haaland family has a long history in this fixture, the most notorious moment coming when his dad, Alfie Haaland, was seriously injured by a challenge from Roy Keane. As such, Haaland is keenly aware of just what this game means, which should bode well for this selection.

The hero of Man United’s last-gasp derby victory on this ground last season, Amad Diallo, is likely to play a key role here. It is an open question whether or not he is being best utilised by being shoehorned into a right-wing-back role under Ruben Amorim, but his threat on that side will at least give Rayan Ait-Nouri plenty to think about.

Diallo is a surprisingly good price to win just a single foul here, having done so in 6 straight games for United, as well as in 9 of his last 10 starts for the Red Devils. Diallo has won 2 fouls in 2 of his 3 league appearances so far this season, including the 2 fouls he won in just 35 minutes off the bench against Arsenal.

He drew a foul which won the penalty in the 2-1 win at the Etihad last year, and United’s counter-attacking style should give him plenty of opportunities to run at Ait-Nouri on the left. The new City signing averages 1.66 fouls per 90 in City colours, and committed a whopping 4 fouls against a similarly counter-attacking Brighton side last time out, having fouled at least twice in 3 of his 5 City starts so far.