Arsenal v Burnley
Wolfsburg games see an average of 3.00 goals, 67% get over the 2.50 mark.
Each of Wolfsburg’s last 3 Bundesliga games have seen 3+ goals, an average of 4.00 goals over this sample.
Werder matches see 3.56 goals, 67% O2.5. These numbers are fairly consistent away from home too – 3.50 goals and 50% O2.5.
Bremen have seen 5/7 Bundesliga games exceed 3 goals, averaging 3.85 goals over this period.
The two most recent games have seen just 3 goals combined against Dortmund and Union, however a combined xG of 4.41 across these two games suggests that those lower scores were due to poor finishing as opposed to a lack of chances created.
Head to head, 5/6 matches have seen O2.5, averaging 4.00 goals per game.
Heidenheim vs Stuttgart
Arsenal welcome the PL’s joint bottom club Burnley to the Emirates which, on paper, looks to be a pretty one sided affair.
Being on of the most attacking teams in the league, Arsenal don’t have a problem scoring goals. They’ve scored 23 goals in 11 games (2.09 goals scored per match).
At the Emirates, they’re even more ruthless having scored on average 2.5 goals per game (15 in 6 games).
With an xG of 1.84 in the PL, to which they’re over performing, it’s no wonder that Arsenal score so many goals.
Arsenal have shown that goals can come from anywhere. Their top scorer is Nketiah with 5, but then you have Saka (4), Ødegaard (3) and even Delcan Rice is chiping in (2).
Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in every game at the Emirates bar the narrow victory over Man City earlier in the season. A game where they actually could have scored 2-3 but not for some strong City defending or goalkeeping.
Burnley are laying joint bottom of the PL for a reason. They’re just not very good. They’ve conceded on avg. 2.45 goals per game (2nd highest in the PL) and have the 4th highest for xG against too.
Leeds v Plymouth
The Wrexham fairytale continues. Having finally been promoted back into league football, they’re continuing the drive forward to reach even higher levels.
What has been the most entertaining factor about Wrexham (other than the Hollywood links) is their high scoring games. There have been some absolute crackers over the last few seasons.
Boasting 3 of league football’s most ruthless finishers in Elliott Lee (10 goals in 16 games), Ollie Palmer (4) and Paul Mullin (4), it’s no surprise that we see plenty of goals scored by Wrexham.
League Two’s 4th highest scorers, they score on avg. 2 goals per game in L2.
It’s at home where we really see them flourish. They avg. an astonishing 3.1 goals per game when playing at The Racecourse Ground. Free flowing stuff.
Gillingham surprisingly find themselves in 9th place despite having one of the highest negative goal differences in the league with -6. Only 4 teams have a worse GD than the Gills. When they lose, they lose heavily.