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PSG vs Dortmund
1st May
kick off 20:00 Achraf Hakimi to commit 1+ fouls
The Moroccan averages 1.03 fouls per 90, a figure that increases to 1.60 in the Champions League. Potentially up against Karim Adeyemi, Jadon Sancho or Donyell Malen. Adeyemi draws 1.68 fouls per 90.
Lucas Beraldo to commit 1+ foulsHe is set to replace Lucas Hernandez in the side and there will be a lot of eyes on him. Dortmund could target Beraldo and he averages 1.06 fouls per 90. Up against a clever operator in Niclas Fullkrug who draws 1.55 fouls per game.
Ousmane Dembele to have3+ shotsHe fired in four shots in the first leg and is facing Ian Maatsen who sometimes gets out of position. Dembele has been in good form recently so should be confident enough to try his luck a few times.
Niclas Fullkrug to have 2+ shotsThe German international averages 2.06 shots per 90 and as the starting striker for Dortmund he should get chances. Scored in the first leg so his confidence should also be pretty high.
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The stage is set in Paris for the Champions League 2nd leg and Dortmund travel here with a slender 1-0 advantage to hold onto.
The stakes are as high as they can possibly get with a place in the Wembley final up for grabs. Both clubs know this could be their best chance to win the flagship UEFA competition for quite some time.
PSG won the group game here 2-0 earlier this season and will hope for a repeat performance.
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PSG vs Dortmund predicted lineups
Lucas Hernandez set for a long spell on the sidelines
PSG defender Lucas Hernandez suffered an ACL injury in the first leg and is now ruled out for a long time. The Parisians will have to re-jig their defensive line with Lucas Beraldo coming in as a replacement. PSG misfired in the first leg so there might be a temptation to change the midfield or attack. Bradley Barcola could make way for Randal Kolo Muani with Kylian Mbappe switched to the left wing.
Adeyemi is a possible Dortmund doubt
Edin Terzic will be tempted to stick with the same XI that beat PSG in the first leg. Karim Adeyemi is a doubt on the left wing and could be replaced by Donyell Malen. The visitors will be without left back Ramy Bensebaini and striker Sebastien Haller. Ian Maatsen continues to do a good job at left back in his absence and Niclas Fullkrug should be confident leading the line after scoring in the first leg.
PSG vs Dortmund team stats
Individual brilliance helping PSG
PSG average a hefty 2.45 goals per game. They have overperformed both their xGF and xGA. This is a team with exceptional ability and from an offensive perspective they can score from pretty much anywhere. The Parisians have nearly a 40% accuracy rate with their shots which is very impressive. PSG average more cards in this competition than they do domestically.
Kobel heroics continue to bail out the defence
Borussia Dortmund average 1.90 goals per game which correlates with their xG metrics. They continue to enjoy a significant defensive overachievement though. Their goals against per game of 1.26 contrasts to their xGA per match is 1.59. Dortmund allow a lot of shots per game and over four on target. They have been indebted to goalkeeper Gregor Kobel who has made some brilliant saves this season.
PSG vs Dortmund shots and shots on target stats
Dembele could have his shooting boots on again
Kylian Mbappe of course stands out averaging a massive 4.66 shots per 90 with over two on target per game. He can be backed at 1.36 to have two or more shots on target which could be a decent bet builder addition. Ousmane Dembele fired in four attempts in the first leg with one on target. He’s priced at 1.67 to have three or more shots which seems very possible for him again. Achraf Hakimi averages around two shots per 90 minutes and is 1.36 to have two or more shots.
Sabitzer to cause PSG problems
Dortmund don’t have anyone on the projected starting list who is averaging more than one shot on target per 90 minutes. Niclas Fullkrug scored in the first leg and looks a big price at 1.57 to have one or more shots on target. Marcel Sabitzer fired an impressive three shots last week, all of which were on target. He is a clever player who gets into some good positions. The 2.40 price on offer that he hits the target at least once could be considered and he is as big as 2.0 just to have two shots.
PSG vs Dortmund goals and assists stats
Main man Mbappe short price to score
Kylian Mbappe is as short as 1.50 to score anytime but he must be considered due to the significant threat he offers. The France captain will be desperate to deliver on the big stage and would merit consideration for any PSG vs Dortmund bet builder. The other PSG options are simply too inconsistent and unreliable. Randal Kolo Muani at 2.70 or Ousmane Dembele at 3.75 could be considered for those who are feeling brave.
Fullkrug to strike again?
Fullkrug has a knack of producing in the Champions League and in big matches. He took his goal brilliantly last week and is a huge 4.0 to score anytime at the Parc des Princes. He can also be backed in the ‘to score or assist’ market at 3.20 which might be the more sensible option. Fullkrug has a combined 3 goals and 2 assists in the Champions League this season. Julian Brandt is always a danger in this market as well and is priced at 3.50.
PSG cards and fouls stats
Beraldo to feel the heat coming into the side
PSG only average 1.61 cards per game but that number rises to over two per game in the Champions League. They have committed 11.5 fouls per contest in Europe this season. Achraf Hakimi and Warren Zaire-Emery are always vulnerable in the fouls market, averaging 1.60 and 1.30 fouls per 90 minutes in the UCL this season. They can be backed at 1.33 and 1.40 respectively to commit at least one foul. Lucas Beraldo coming into the side at centre back is sure to see him come under pressure. He is a generous 1.62 to commit at least one foul.
Dortmund draw an average of 2.06 cards per game from their opponents. If Karim Adeyemi plays then he will be a huge menace because he tends to be a foul magnet with his physical skills and flair. Both PSG full backs Hakimi and Mendes could be vulnerable. Dortmund have several players who are experienced enough to win cheap free kicks with Fullkrug also standing out in this way.
DoRTMUND cards and fouls stats
Can lead Dortmund into midfield battle
Dortmund only average 1.97 cards per game and rank inside the bottom five for cards picked up in the Bundesliga. Dortmund only average 9.5 fouls per game domestically. However, at this stage of the Champions League with everything on the line then some players can be targeted. Karim Adeyemi is a foul machine but might not be on the field for sufficient minutes. Ian Maatsen at left back and Emre Can in midfield could both be looked at here.
PSG only draw 1.55 cards per game from their opponents which is a surprisingly low rate when you look at their attacking options. The likes of Mbappe and Dembele will both command plenty of attention, while the possible addition of Randal Kolo Muani will offer a physical presence and another dimension.
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