The Bundesliga returns after an extended World Cup and winter break. Third placed Leipzig take on table toppers Bayern. There are six points separating the two sides and if the Red Bull outfit are to make a title challenge, they realistically need to win this game. Bayern have won the last 10 titles in Germany and Freiburg are currently their closest challengers, just four points adrift. A run of six straight wins has them in pole position after 15 matches.
Looking for stats from their exploits so far this season to help beat the bookies in the bet builder markets? Look no further. Well keep looking below. I’ve covered xG, goals, shots, corners, and cards from Leipzig and Bayern’s Bundesliga campaigns. Just take a peak at my Stats Pack Guide on how best to use the data.
Leipzig will be without the immense Christopher Nkunku who is still recovering from a knee injury. Captain and #1 goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi is injured so backup man Janis Blaswich will start. Timo Werner might be in line to return following an injury which kept him out of the World Cup, but a spot on the bench might be the best he can hope for.
Veteran keeper Manuel Neuer is ruled out for the rest of the season after breaking his leg in a skiing accident. Bayern have recently signed Yann Sommer but he won’t be available for this game so Sven Ulreich will get the gloves. Senegalese attacker Sadio Mane remains out with an injury which also kept him out of the World Cup. Left back Lucas Hernandez tore his ACL in Qatar for France and his season is over. Noussair Mazraoui is another casualty and won’t be back until at least mid-February.
Leipzig average exactly two goals per match which correlates closely to their xG of 1.82. They concede an average of 1.40 goals against in each fixture. Leipzig certainly fire in the shots, 14.33 per match, of which 5.13 are on target. The opposition only average 3.47 SOT vs Leipzig which has contributed towards their decent defensive record.
The Red Bull club have really been able to restrict corners against at just 3.80 per game. At the other end they themselves have obtained 5.47 corners which is an above average amount. It is noticeable that cards against is high (2.67), which is perhaps explainable by the amount of technical and fast attackers they have in their squad.
Bayern average a mammoth 3.27 goals per game which isn’t a million miles clear of their xG of 2.72. They are an offensive juggernaut, who despite some injuries have immense depth and talent. Bayern have racked up over 20 shots on average per game, with 8.47 on target. At the other end of the field their opponents only average 8.27 shots in each fixture. Bayern have an xGA of 1.14 which is one of the best in the Bundesliga.
Bayern average 6.60 corners per game. It is a high figure but perhaps not as high as you’d expect considering their domination. They only concede 3.87 corners to the opposition. It is no real surprise to see the Bavarian giants well disciplined. Julien Nagelsmann’s men have only obtained 1.40 cards per game. It is a surprise that Bayern have only drawn 1.60 cards against on average considering the skilful players they have at their disposal.
Player shots and shots on target
Timo Werner is probably more likely to start from the bench. Andre Silva will likely assume his position upfront and averages 2.94 shots per 90 mins, of which 1.13 have been on target. Other players worth watching out for in the shooting category are Danny Olmo and Dominik Szoboszlai. Each of those average at least one SOT per 90 mins. Centre back Willi Orban avengers exactly one shot per 90 mins which suggests he is an active piece to consider on set pieces.
Bayern rack up a lot of shots and three players stand out as candidates to fire in the attempts here: Gnabry, Musiala and Sane. Gnabry is probably the most reliable, converting his 4.33 shots per 90 mins into 2.27 on target. Choupo-Moting is set to start upfront and averages 2.42 shots per 90 mins, with an impressive 1.55 on target. He really makes the most of his efforts and will likely test the keeper with a shot. Midfielder Goretzka is another worth keeping an eye on because he fires in close to three shots per 90 mins.
Player goals and assists
Christopher Nkunku has been a goalscoring machine in the last couple of years but is still ruled out with a knee injury. He’s going to be a massive loss because of his 12 goals scored. The next nearest active player scheduled to start is defender Willie Orban who has three goals. Forsberg and Andre Silva have both scored twice. In terms of assists, Dominik Szoboszlai is the clear stand out with seven. Timo Werner has bagged four goals and could be a dangerous option from the bench.
Jamal Musiala leads both the scoring and assist charts for Bayern. He has weighed in with 9 goals this season and is always an obvious candidate to find the back of the net. Musiala had a poor World Cup in terms of end product but is a dual threat having provided 6 assists this season. Serge Gnabry has scored 8 goals and Choupo-Moting has hit the back of the net 6 times. Sadio Mane won’t play this game which gives good opportunities to other players such as Leroy Sane or Choupo-Moting.
RB Leipzig cards
Most of the players on this list are not predicted to start. Henrichs and Kampl are the worst offenders for Leipzig in terms of cards. Whoever players right back, either Simikan or Henrichs could be in danger. They also average over 1.20 fouls per game. One projected starter, Emil Forsberg could be worth keeping an eye on. The physical wide target man fouls on average 1.38 times per 90 mins and obtained two cards. Leipzig are the 5th cleanest side in the Bundesliga and only obtained 24 yellow cards and one red all season.
Bayern have only drawn an average of 1.60 cards from their opposition in each match. Jamal Musiala is going to cause obvious problems to the Leipzig defence and on average dribbles 4.36 times per 90 mins. Leipzig could put star centre back Josko Gvardiol to mark him. Musiala has been fouled 1.55 times on average. Both Alphonso Davies and Leroy Sane are high for dribbling statistics and fouled at least once per match. Both will be doubling up on the Bayern left hand side so could cause issues to Leipzig in that area.
Matchups to watch
Simikan or Henrichs vs Leroy Sane
Emil Forsberg vs Benjamin Pavard
Josko Gvardiol vs Jamal Musiala
Bayern Munich cards
Unsurprisingly, Bayern have the cleanest disciplinary record in the Bundesliga, picking up just 18 yellow cards and one red this season. Only one player on this list, Matthijs De Ligt averages more than one foul per game and his matchup with Andre Silva is one of the most significant of the contest. Elsewhere, Joshua Kimmich has obtained three cards in midfield and will probably be tasked with trying to keep Szoboszlai quiet. It is noticeable that Leroy Sane has obtained three cards. The left winger might have to track back and help deal with Danny Olmo, which could spell trouble for a player not great at tackling.
Leipzig have drawn a lot of cards from their opponents this season. Danny Olmo can be a foul magnet and on average gets taken down 3.22 times per 90 mins. He dribbles close to four times in each game which probably helps contribute. Striker Andre Silva can be a difficult player to deal with and is fouled 2.39 times per 90 mins. Creative midfielder Dominik Szoboszlai is another who can be a foul magnet and will need some special attention from the Bayern defence to prevent him being effective.
Matchups to watch
Matthijs De Ligt vs Andre Silva
Joshua Kimmich vs Dominik Szoboszlai
Leroy Sane vs Danny Olmo
My Picks of the Pack
Whilst putting together this bet builder stats pack, there were a few selections that took my fancy and screamed value. It’s just an idea of the sort of picks you can make from the stats above so feel free to add whichever you’d like. Putting these as a four-fold comes in at 3/1.
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Jamal Musiala has scored 9 and assisted 6 in 14 appearances.
RB Leipzig games average 3.40 goals.
Bayern Munich games average 4.14 goals.
Serge Gnabry averages 2.27 shots on target per 90, from 4.33 shots.
Andre Silva averages 1.13 shots on target per 90, from 2.94 shots.