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The Champions League resumes for the round of 16 for a clash between German outfit RB Leipzig and Spanish giants Real Madrid. The hosts are as big as 80/1 to win this competition whereas Carlo Ancelotti’s men are generally third favourites to lift the trophy. Real Madrid are also the favourites to win this first leg at the Red Bull Arena. An entertaining clash in Eastern Germany is in store with both teams knowing a first leg advantage would be precious.
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RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Healthy squad for RBL
Everyone knows how the Red Bull teams line up and they will be employed in their traditional 4-2-2-2 narrow formation. The Germans have a squad in healthy condition with their only confirmed absence being midfielder Amadou Haidara. Benjamin Sesko and Lois Openda will lead the line and complete a fascinating attacking quartet with Xavi Simons and Dani Olmo.
Bellingham blow for Real Madrid
Los Blancos registered a crucial 4-0 victory against title rivals Girona at the weekend but at a cost; they lost key man Jude Bellingham to an ankle injury. Early indications are that the England star will miss around 3 weeks of action. Brahim Diaz should get a run in the team now as his replacement. Real also have injuries to Antonio Rudiger and long term absentees Eder Militao, David Alaba and Thibaut Courtois. A 4-3-1-2 narrow system is expected from the Spaniards.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid Team Stats
Corner count low for Leipzig
The home team are an offensive juggernaut and average 2.19 goals per game, backed up by an impressively high xG. They average an impressive 6.38 shots on target per match which proves they are reliably accurate. Corners are on the low side in RBL fixtures, perhaps explained by their traditional narrow formation which doesn’t generate that many flag kicks and a defensive strategy which forces opponents inside.
Defensive record stands out for Real
Real Madrid are another team who have been scoring freely this season and have a similar goals per game average to RBL. The big difference between the two teams comes at the other end of the field though where Los Blancos only concede 0.63 times per match. Their xGA is 0.93 so there is a suggestion of overachievement but this is a strong backline. Real only allow 2.79 shots on target against per game although this will be a more significant challenge. Just like RBL, corners are not high in their fixtures and Real Madrid have kept their discipline well by obtaining few cards.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Red Bulls full of shooting energy
Leipzig average close to 16 shots per game and are usually not shy of chancing their luck at goal. Lois Openda averages a staggering 4.20 shots per 90 minutes and is a name that immediately stands out. He can be added at 1.33 to have three or more shots which is tremendous bet builder material. Dani Olmo is a massive 1.53 just to have two shots or more and Benjamin Sesko is also a decent 1.25 in this category.
Diaz to roll the dice
The Spanish giants average nearly 17 shots per match although one of their main candidates Jude Bellingham will be missing here. Could Brahim Diaz step up in his absence? Diaz currently averages 2.26 shots per 90 but that figure could increase now. He’s 1.36 to have two or more shots which could be added to your RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid bet builder. Elsewhere, Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo are, of course, strong shooting candidates.
RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid Goals and Assists Stats
Openda to carry the can at Red Bull Arena
Lois Openda is a proper stud striker and one of the best in the world in his position. He’s clinical, effective and has massively improved his positioning. The 2.50 on offer that he scores here could look massive come the final whistle. Both Xavi Simons and Dani Olmo can be targeted in the ‘the score or assist’ market at 2.63 and 2.70 respectively. Both are well capable of finding the back of the net and are fantastic creative players who provide a lot of assists.
Who can replace Bellingham?
Jude Bellingham has been amazing this season employed in his role behind the forwards. The England star has netted 16 times and has been Real Madrid’s top scorer. He’s ruled out which is a major blow. Los Blancos are going to need the likes of Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior and even Joselu off the bench to carry them now. Brahim Diaz should play in a similar role to Bellingham and is 3.40 to score anytime. Brazilian international Vinicius will probably be the most popular choice for a Real goalscorer at 2.88.
RB Leipzig Cards and Fouls Stats
Leipzig are squeaky clean
Marco Rose’s men only average 1.76 cards per game which is extraordinarily low. They are yet to pick up a red card this season in either the Bundesliga or the Champions League. It is hard to warrant backing anyone to go into the book considering the stats. Even with the fouls market you can’t really justify backing any player for more than a single foul. Lois Openda or Xaver Schlager are possible options due to their pressing nature.
Real Madrid are the third-most fouled team in La Liga but rank in the bottom third for this category in the Champions League. They regularly respect Real but they have several tricky customers such as Camavinga and Vinicius Junior. Brahim Diaz will also add to the conundrum with his skillset. Benjamin Henrichs could come under pressure on his side of the field but like many others, he offers little value at 1.17 to commit a foul.
Real Madrid Cards and Fouls Stats
Camavinga the prime candidate
Ferland Mendy and Aurelien Tchouameni lead their card count but it’s not significantly high. A man to always consider for fouls is Eduardo Camavinga. He is 1.50 to commit two or more fouls here which looks well within his range. Carlo Ancelotti described Ferland Mendy as the ‘best defensive left back in world football’. He can be backed at 1.73 to commit at least one foul and he might be in a committed mood.
RB Leipzig are the second-most fouled team in the Bundesliga and rank in the top 10 for fouls in the Champions League this season. They have tricky dribblers in their team such as Dani Olmo, Xavi Simons and Lois Openda. The problem in identifying an angle is where they will feature on the field. The RBL formation is quite narrow but players are interchangeable.
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