The Copa del Rey quarter final draw has delivered a very tasty looking Madrid derby. This is a single straight knockout match between Real and Atletico which will be played at the Bernabeu Stadium. The first meeting between the two sides in the league this season resulted in a 2-1 Real Madrid victory. Can Carlo Ancelotti beat Diego Simeone again?
The stats pack for tonight’s heated clash is filled to the brim with key metrics from the teams’ La Liga seasons so far. Use the data for xG, goals, shots, corners, passing, fouls, and cards alongside my Stats Pack Guide to construct winning bet builders.
Predicted Lineups
Lucas Vasquez is set to miss out with a sprained ankle for Real Madrid. There are doubts surrounding David Alaba, Aurelien Tchouameni and Dani Carvajal. This makes it more likely that Toni Kroos and Luka Modric will be called upon in midfield. Vinicius Jnr and Karim Benzema are almost certain to start in attack, with Rodrygo most likely to make up the attacking trio.
New Atletico Madrid signing Memphis Depay came off the bench at the weekend and could be set to make his first start for the club. Key centre back Jose Gimenez is again doubtful with injury and might not be risked. Stefan Savic returns from suspension, as does left back Sergio Reguilon who will contend with Reinildo Mandava for a place in the team.
Team Stats
Real Madrid average 2.24 goals per match and only 0.94 against. Their xG numbers are quite similar so this is a legitimate team, especially in attack. Real average 16.40 shots per game with 5.12 on target. Their defence has been quite stingy conceding only 3.41 SOT against in each fixture.
Real Madrid only average 5.59 corners in each contest, which is slightly on the low side for such a dominant team. They concede 4.29 corners at the other end. It is noticeable how good Carlo Ancelotti’s men have been at drawing cards from the opposition at an average of nearly 3 per game! They themselves rank on the lower side for cards, obtaining an average of 1.59 per match.
Atletico Madrid are underachieving offensively but overachieving defensively. They only average 1.50 goals per game but their xG is much higher at 1.81. They are known for always being a defensive beast under Diego Simeone and concede just 0.89 goals in each fixture. Their xGA is 1.40 but this is a team always known for finding a way to keep the goals out. Atletico only average 3.00 SOT against which massively aids their strong defensive stats.
Diego Simeone is known for getting his team to play hard and dirty. They average a massive 3.17 cards per game and this trend is contagious to their opponents with Atletico drawing 3.06 cards against on average. They will do their best to make this fixture a stop-start fistfight and won’t shy away from getting stuck in. Corner statistics are quite average for this team both for and against. They only concede 4.28 corners per game which ties in with their decent defensive record.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Karim Benzema averages 4.30 shots per 90 mins but only 1.50 of those have been on target. Rodrygo averages nearly four shots as well with a more disappointing 1.11 SOT per 90 mins. The trio of Vinicius, Asensio and Valverde are all worth keeping an eye on in the shots market as well, but neither are especially accurate. All of them average roughly one SOT per 90 mins though.
Three players stand out in the shooting market for Atletico. Antoine Griezmann averages 3.47 shots per 90 min with a decent 1.49 on target. Former Chelsea striker Alvaro Morata also has a good accuracy of 1.51 SOT from 3.31 attempts per game. Correa is the third player who averages more than three shots per 90 mins (3.38). New man Memphis Depay should also be considered because he could be leading the line in this game.
Player Goals and Assists
Karim Benzema missed the World Cup but has enjoyed an excellent year for his club, netting 9 goals on this list. Both Vinicius and Valverde have 6 goals each, whilst Rodrygo is an interesting contender with 4 goals and 5 assists. The rest of the Real Madrid assists have been shared around the squad.
Alvaro Morata leads the scoring charts for Atletico with seven. Antoine Griezmann is the standout in this department though. He has netted 6 goals and also supplied 6 assists. Anything Atletico do offensively runs through him usually. Depay is worth watching here and Correa on the right wing has four goals, but nobody else stands out.
Player Passing
Real Madrid average 58% possession and there are several players to keep an eye on in the passing markets. Toni Kroos averages a whopping 89.4 passes per 90 mins and midfield maestro Luka Modric averages 70. The problem is deciding who will last the full 90 mins? With several substitutes allowed, the likes of Aurelien Tchouameni might only get 65-75 mins of action which can be a problem when backing anyone with a passing bet.
Of all the so called ‘big’ teams in Europe, Atletico Madrid are best known for their counter-attacking lower possession style. They average 49% of the ball overall but that figure is likely to be much less here. Only two players just squeeze close to the 60 passes mark per 90 mins, Koke and Rodrigo De Paul. Because of the type of game and expected tactics, Atletico players are probably not worth considering in the passing market here.
Real Madrid Cards
Ancelotti’s men are not known for being particularly dirty but such a fixture might bring out the worst in some players. Vinicius Jnr has four cards and on average fouls 1.76 times per 90 mins. He is fast, energetic and will press but isn’t always the greatest timer of a tackle. Midfield is where we are going to see a lot of battles and the likes of Luka Modric and Eduardo Camavinga are candidates for fouls and tackles if and when they are on the field.
Alvaro Morata is a very physical striker and could be a foul magnet if he starts. Memphis Depay would offer a different type of pacey and technical problem to the Real Madrid defence. Griezmann dribbles close to three times per 90 mins and it would be a surprise if he wasn’t targeted. Argentinian World Cup winner Rodrigo De Paul is fouled the second most on this list (2.44) and will always get stuck in, loving a battle.
Matchups to watch
Luka Modric vs Rodrigo De Paul
Vinicius Jnr vs Molina
Ferland Mendy vs Antoine Griezmann
Atletico Madrid Cards
This is a very dirty team and the whole squad are contenders to pick up fouls and cards. The centre back duo of Jimenez and Hermoso are especially prone to losing their cool and serially obtain cards, with the latter sent off last time the two sides met in the league. Savic also must be considered here due to Jimenez’s possible injury. Right back Molina will have his hands full and could have massive problems with Vinicius Jnr. Saul Niguez is unlikely to start but usually comes off the bench and is one to watch whilst on the field. He averages a massive 4 fouls per 90 mins and already picked up 6 cards.
Vinicius Jnr averages a really high number of dribbles per game (6.30) and gests fouled 3.76 times. He is likely to be strongly targeted by Atletico. Right winger Rodrygo is another who dribbles to a high rate (4.40) and can be a foul magnet. The matchups between the Real Madrid wingers and Atletico fullbacks is obvious here.
Matchups to watch
Molina vs Vinicius Jnr
Reinildo vs Rodrygo
Hermoso vs Benzema
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
From the pack, there’s a few selections I thought looked decent value on Betfair. The data backs the picks, and I no doubt expect a busy day for the referee, so coming in at 16/1 it may be worth a fiver. You can of course add any selections you like from the stats, or remove any of mine you don’t fancy.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
25th January
kick off 20:00 Over 5.5 Cards
Real Madrid average 1.59 cards for and 2.88 cards against.
Atletico Madrid average 3.17 cards for and 3.06 cards against.
Referee Cesar Soto averages 5.29 cards per game.
It’s a Madrid derby. This selection has landed in 3 of the last 4 meetings.
Mario Hermoso to be shown a cardMario Hermoso average 1.54 fouls per game.
He has received 5 cards in just 6 appearances this season.
He was sent off last time out against Real Madrid.
A red card in the match – YesA red card was shown last time they met.
Vinicius Jr to have 1 or more shots on targetVinicius Jr averages 1.15 shots on target P/90, from 2.55 shots.
Karim Benzema to have 4 or more shotsKarim Benzema average 4.30 shots P/90.
