Real Madrid welcome Valencia to the Bernabeu Stadium. Carlo Ancelotti’s men dropped points at the weekend when they were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Real Sociedad and now find themselves five points adrift of table toppers Barcelona. Their opponents Valencia travel here with just one league win in their last ten games, and head into this match under a dark cloud after the recent sacking of manager Gennaro Gattuso. Los Che are down as low as 14th in the table which is unacceptable for a club of their stature.
If you fancy putting a bet builder together for this La Liga clash, then you’re in luck. I’ve compiled a number of stats below, ranging from goals to shots, and corners to cards. All of that is designed to give your bet builder a greater chance of winning. If you need some pointers on how to get the most out of the data, take a glance at my Stats Pack Guide.
Lucas Vasquez and Ferland Mendy remain out injured medium to long term for Real Madrid. Left back is an issue right now with Eduardo Camavinga filling in their last time out. He might have to do the same again.
Luka Modric is returns to the midfield alongside Toni Kroos. Asensio starts at right wing.
Valencia have long term injuries to both Jaume Domenech and Nico Gonzalez. Thierry Correia is doubtful with a muscle injury.
Moukhtar Diakhaby returns at centre back to partner former Arsenal man Gabriel Paulista.
Real Madrid average 2.11 goals per match and only 0.89 against. Their xG numbers are even higher at 2.31 so this is a very legitimate team, especially in attack. Real average 16.60 shots per game with 5.22 on target. Their defence has been quite stingy conceding only 3.39 SOT against in each fixture.
Real Madrid only average 5.83 corners in each contest, which feels on par considering they are such a dominant side. They concede 4.22 corners at the other end. It is noticeable how good Carlo Ancelotti’s men have been at drawing cards from the opposition at an average of nearly 3 per game! They themselves rank on the lower side for cards, obtaining an average of 1.56 per match.
Valencia are a very wasteful side. They average 1.39 goals per game which is miles below their xG of 1.76. Defensively they are reasonably assured conceding just 1.17 goals against in each fixture. They have fired in 13.70 shots per match, of which exactly 4.00 have been on target. It is impressive that Los Che have only allowed 10.20 shots against in each game.
Corners have been on the high side, obtaining 5.94 in each fixture with 4.50 against. It is very noticeable the astronomical number of cards in Valencia fixtures. They themselves average a huge 3.11 cards per game with their opponents racking up a monstrous 4.28! The referee can expect to be busy here.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Karim Benzema averages 4.09 shots per 90 mins but only 1.45 of those have been on target. Rodrygo averages nearly four shots as well with a more disappointing 1.01 SOT per 90 mins.
The trio of Vinicius, Asensio and Valverde are all worth keeping an eye on in the shots market as well, but neither are especially accurate. All of them average roughly one SOT per 90 mins though. Toni Kroos and Luka Modric are usually good for at least one shot each time they take to the field.
Three players average over two shots per 90 mins, Kluivert, Cavani and Castillejo. Justin Kluivert is the most accurate with 1.07 SOT, but the other two have been mostly wasteful.
Two additional players to keep an eye on are midfielder Almeida and left back Gaya. Both average roughly one shot per 90 mins at a 50% accuracy rate. Perhaps in a fixture like this one they might be inclined to try their luck from distance.
Player Goals and Assists
Karim Benzema has been enjoying a good season for Real Madrid, netting 9 goals on this list. Both Vinicius and Valverde have 6 goals each, whilst Rodrygo is an interesting contender with 4 goals and 5 assists. The rest of the Real Madrid assists have been shared around the squad.
Edinson Cavani has five goals and Justin Kluivert has netted three times. As aforementioned, this is an underachieving team offensively and they have not been firing in the final third as they would like.
Almeida leads Valencia in assists with three, whilst Gaya has supplied two goals. More is needed for Los Che in the attacking department though.
Real Madrid average 58% possession and there are several players to keep an eye on in the passing markets. Toni Kroos averages a whopping 90 passes per 90 mins and midfield maestro Luka Modric averages 71. The problem is deciding who will last the full 90 mins?
With several substitutes allowed, the likes of Aurelien Tchouameni might only get 65-75 mins of action which can be a problem when backing anyone with a passing bet. Not one player on this list has an average field time more than 76 mins.
Valencia average 58% possession which is joint second with Real Madrid in La Liga. They have been a ball hungry side this season, although perhaps this will change now that Gennaro Gattuso has been sacked. It is nevertheless difficult to suddenly change the playing style of any team.
Five players on this list average over 50 passes per 90 mins with centre back Ozkacar (62.1) top of the charts. Fellow defenders Comert and Gaya are also worth keeping an eye on, although a lot will depend on if they maintain their possession style tactics.
Real Madrid Cards
Ancelotti’s men are not known for being particularly dirty. Vinicius Jnr has four cards and on average fouls 1.71 times per 90 mins. He is fast, energetic and will press but isn’t always the greatest timer of a tackle.
Midfield is where we are going to see a lot of battles and the likes of Luka Modric and Eduardo Camavinga are candidates for fouls and tackles if and when they are on the field. A lot depends on the starting lineup but Toni Kroos is usually good for at least one foul as well.
Valencia are a team that have drawn a lot of fouls and cards from their opponents this season. We might have to look to the substitutes bench for the most impactful players though with Castillejo and Moriba both averaging high for dribbles and fouls against.
Midfield duo Musah and Almeida are obvious contenders to draw fouls and this whole match could be won and lost in the central areas.
Match-Ups to watch
Luka Modric vs Yunus Musah
Toni Kroos vs Andre Almeida
Eduardo Camavinga vs Toni Lato & Samuel Lino
Los Che rank joint 7th worth in the La Liga disciplinary table and are no strangers to picking up cards. Musah is an obvious contender in midfield to go into the book considering he has 7 cards and averages 1.62 fouls per 90 mins.
Centre back Comert has five cards and has a similar foul average. Both full backs Gaya and Mosquera will be clearly tested by the Real Madrid wingers and are set for difficult matchups here.
Vinicius Jnr averages a really high number of dribbles per game (7.09) and gets fouled 3.66 times. He is elusive and will cause problems to any defender worldwide. Right winger Rodrygo is another who dribbles to a high rate (4.37) and can be a foul magnet.
Centre back Militao draws nearly 1.50 fouls per 90 mins and is an interesting contender here, knowing how to obtain some good tactical fouls from strikers.
Match-Ups to watch
Yunus Musah vs Toni Kroos
Jose Gaya vs Rodrygo or Valverde
Cristhian Mosquera vs Vinicius Jnr
MY Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Here are a just a few of the selections that stood out to me based on their value when compared to the numbers above.
Real Madrid vs Valencia
Valencia average 3.11 cards per game.
Real Madrid draw 2.94 cards per game.
Benzema averages 1.45 shots on target P/90 from 4.09 shots.
Valencia concede 3.78 shots on target P/90.
Cavani averages 2.47 shots P/90.
Real Madrid concede 11.40 shots P/90.
Real Madrid average 5.83 corners P/90, and concede 4.22.
Valencia average 5.94 corners P/90, and concede 4.50.