Saturday Team Goals Boost

The 4th highest scorers in the league, Brighton average 2.14 goals per game from an xG of 1.80.

At the Amex, the goal output remains the same (2.14), but Brighton create much higher quality chances, 2.26 xG.

Brighton have scored at least twice in 9/15 league games, including each of the last three matches.

Burnley have conceded 33 goals in 15 PL matches. This is the second most in the league, ahead of only Sheffield United’s 41 goals allowed.

Away from home, Burnley have allowed 2+ goals in 3/4 games. The exception being a 1-0 loss to Wolves.

This game is a perfect storm of a high powered attack playing at home against a side which does not travel well, leaking goals away from home. Brighton will fancy themselves to bag a few goals here and continue their push for European football next season.

One of Europe’s premier scoring sides, Bayern average 3.58 goals per game from an xG of 2.72.

Away from home, the German champions score 2.67 goals from an xG of 2.53. Bayern have scored two or more goals in 83% of games on the road.

They have also scored 2+ goals in 11/12 league matches, the exception being the recent 0-1 win against Koln last weekend.

Frankfurt’s 1.15 GA isn’t too bad but considering the xGA of 1.64, Frankfurt have been lucky not to concede more. Away from home, these numbers increase to 1.29 against and 1.90 xGA.

The Visitors have conceded at least two goals each of the last three league games.

Last season, Frankfurt managed to earn a draw in this fixture following a 1-6 loss at home. Across the two games, Bayern created 2.92 xG and dominated in every major category.

This downturn in form is not the ideal spot to face Bayern and I think we’re looking at a convincing away win.

Despite the rocky start to the year, winning only two of their opening 5 matches, PSG have hit their stride. Winning each of their last 7 league matches.

The Parizians score 2.57 goals per game, at the Parc des Princes, their goal output rises to 2.86.

PSG have scored 2+ in 86% of home league games, including each of the last 6 in a row.

Nantes, despite sitting 9th in Ligue Une, have the 3rd highest goals against record. 23 conceded in 14 matches.

Nantes rely on outscoring their opponent to pick up points, something which will not play well against PSG who are the #1 scorers in the French top flight.

Away from home, Nantes allow 2.17 goals from 2.28 xGA on average.

Nantes have allowed at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 of their away games. Allowing an average of 2.75 goals over this stretch.

Last season, PSG won this fixture by 4-2, I can see a similar result taking place here as Nantes try in vain to outscore Mbappe and co.