Serbia vs England Bet Builder Tips, Stats, Best Bets, Predictions

Fouls are going to be a big part of Serbia’s game on Tuesday. England haven’t exactly looked inspired in their performances under Tuchel, and Serbia will fancy themselves to get a result; in the grand scheme of things, they’ll need one here to push England at the top of the group, so expect fouls as they look to make this a bitty and physical game.

Andrija Zivkovic is a player that stands out to me with that in mind. I’m surprised to see him priced at 1.40 here, and that price could drop given that only Fulham’s Sasa Lukic has committed more fouls in World Cup Qualifying for Serbia to this point.

Zivkovic is averaging 1.34 fouls P/90 in World Cup Qualifying, and he’s committed a foul in all three of his appearances in qualifying thus far. What stands out for me is the fact that he’s very much a winger that gets utilised at wing back for his country. He’s not comfortable with the defensive side of the game, and that won’t serve him well here.

With that in mind, someone like Anthony Gordon should be capable of causing Zivkovic a whole host of problems. You’re looking at a player who drives forward at pace and that isn’t afraid to take on his man. He’s already drawn four fouls in just one and a half games for Newcastle this season, and averages 1.91 fouls drawn P/90 for his nation in World Cup Qualifying. If Gordon does start, Zivkovic will be put on the back foot.

I’ve been fairly impressed with Sasa Lukic in the early stages of this season. The Fulham man has a reputation as a bit of a bruiser, but he’s certainly proving to be more cultured than that.

Regardless, his aggressive tendencies on the ball will see him engage in fifty-fifty duels as it is, and he will draw contact in those engagements, but Lukic is now operating in a smarter manner with the ball at his feet as well, getting in front of his man and gliding past with the ball. He’s getting clipped regularly at club level, drawing 1.67 fouls P/90 in the Premier League so far this season.

That ability to draw fouls has certainly carried over into international football as well. Lukic drew three fouls against Latvia last week, and has averaged 1.81 fouls drawn P/90 in World Cup Qualifying to this point. He’s failed to draw a foul just once in his last five games for his country, and he’ll be one to look towards when it comes to Serbia looking to relieve pressure here.

It’s difficult to say exactly as to how England will line up, but plenty were impressed by Elliot Anderson’s debut, and he is a player to watch in this instance if he is to start again. He committed two fouls against Andorra last week, and would be the prime suspect to bring Lukic down here.

The opposite side of the coin to the Zivkovic pick here. I think Serbia’s right wing back is going to come under heaps of pressure, and I would expect Anthony Gordon to be the man to apply just that.

There’s certainly a spot open on the left hand side of England’s attack. Tuchel hasn’t settled on a supporting cast to Harry Kane, and in Gordon he has a direct threat at his disposal who will drive at pace and take on his man. He’s drawn four fouls in just one and a half games for Newcastle this season, and drew three of those in just 44 minutes against Liverpool.

Gordon’s numbers this season are already encouraging, a continuation of the 2.63 fouls P/90 that he drew in the Premier League last season. The Newcastle man drew two or more fouls on 22 separate occasions over the course of the campaign, and given that Serbia operate with wing backs and no other support out wide, he’ll have space to run into.

A matchup with Serbia’s Andrija Zivkovic is ideal here. He’s very much a winger operating at wing back, and he struggles with the defensive side of the game. He’s committed 1.34 fouls P/90 so far in World Cup Qualifying, and is yet to go a game without a committing a foul in his nation’s campaign.

This is a selection that’s as much about game state as it is about the numbers and stats. Not only is this Serbian squad littered with physical operators that will throw themselves into duels and commit fouls, they’ll no doubt fancy their chances of getting something out of this game. They will do anything to get over the line here.

Realistically, Serbia do need points here if they’re to put pressure on England at the top of the group. That in itself should lead to them playing an aggressive brand of football, one that sees them snapping into challenges.

If you cast your mind back to the start of Euro 2024, Serbia committed 19 fouls and received two cards in their tournament opener against England. Granted, this is a very different game and a very different atmosphere, but Serbia will lineup with close to the exact same side that lost 1-0 to England last June.

No doubt, this England side are the best team that Serbia will have faced to this point in World Cup qualifying, and they’ve already committed plenty of fouls and received cards against nations with less quality. They committed 11 fouls against Andorra, and 13 apiece against Latvia and Albania, picking up two cards against the latter.

England will have more of the ball than those sides, and they will force more challenges out of Serbia, who will no doubt go flying in to unsettle Tuchel’s men.