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Serbia vs England
16th June
kick off 20:00 Over 1.5 Serbia cards 
Despite being comfortably the better team in most of their qualifying games, Serbia still saw 2+ bookings in 4 of the 8 matches.
England’s opponents have seen 2+ cards in 5 of their last 8 games in all competitions, including both of their pre-tournament friendlies against Iceland and Bosnia-Herzegovina.
England (-2 corner handicap) England have taken at least 6 corners in each of their last 6 games, and have conceded 2 or fewer in 5 of those 6 games in all competitions.
This bet would have landed in 5 of England’s last 6, and would have landed for Serbia’s opponents in 2 of their last 3 matches in all comps.
Jude Bellingham to have 1+ shots on target Bellingham had at least one shot on target in three of his four starts in qualifying.
He averaged 0.86 shots on target per 90 from just 1.14 shots per 90 across the qualifying campaign, and should benefit from operating in the spaces behind Harry Kane with Serbia playing a back three.
Aleksandar Mitrovic to commit 1+ fouls Mitrovic committed a foul in six of his seven starts during the qualifying campaign.
He commits 1.38 fouls per 90, and is up against John Stones and Marc Guehi, who won 1.08 and 0.70 fouls per 90 during the qualifiers.
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England’s Euros campaign gets underway on Sunday as they face Serbia in Gelsenkirchen at Schalke’s Veltins Arena.
Gareth Southgate’s side suffered heartbreak as they lost on penalties in the final of the last European Championship and they are amongst the favourites to go all the way again here. They will be keen to get off to a strong start after two underwhelming friendly performances leading up to the tournament, and the aim must surely be maximum points from this group.
Serbia qualified second from Group G, with Hungary qualifying ahead of them as they made tough work of what looked to be a relatively easy group on paper, featuring Montenegro, Lithuania and Bulgaria. Despite struggling through qualifying, they will fancy their chances of qualifying for the knockout stages in this group, with Denmark and Slovenia both looking beatable.
This looks like a great game for a bet, and we’ve done the research for you, providing our readers with all the best choices in a range of the most popular bet builder markets.
You can check out our Stats Pack Guide to take advantage of the data in this article ahead of kick-off.
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Serbia vs England Predicted Lineups
Unusually conservative side expected from Stojkovic
Manager Dragan Stojkovic has stated that his teams play only ‘all-out attacking’ football, but he is expected to name a much more conservative side when he faces England. Nikola Milenkovic will be asked to marshal what appears to be a relatively weak Serbian defence, with Filip Kostic and Andrija Zivkovic providing attacking threat down the wings from wing back. Sasa Lukic and Nemanja Gudelj will be the holding midfielders, with Dusan Tadic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic providing support to key man Aleksandar Mitrovic upfront.
Southgate to continue the Trent in midfield experiment
England have a few problem areas but the majority of their side is settled ahead of the tournament. Harry Kane of course starts up front, with the three behind him expected to be Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden. Declan Rice looks likely to be partnered by Trent Alexander-Arnold, with Kobbie Mainoo and Adam Wharton perhaps not experienced enough to be thrown in at the deep end here. Kyle Walker, John Stones and Jordan Pickford are all nailed-on to start, while Luke Shaw’s absence means Kieran Trippier is likely to get the nod at left back. The other centre back looks likely to be Marc Guehi, but Ezri Konsa is also an option.
Serbia vs England Team Stats
Cards look a solid bet for Serbia
All the data for the team stats below is extracted from Serbia’s last five competitive fixtures. Despite being comfortably better than three of the five teams in their qualifying group, Serbia still racked up 1.50 cards per game on average and were shown more than two cards in four of their eight qualifying games. England’s opponents have been shown two or more cards in five of their last eight games, including both friendlies over the last fortnight. With referees being encouraged to show yellows for any player who approaches them, that also suggests card bets at this tournament would be a smart play, and therefore we like the look of over 1.5 Serbia cards at 1.60.
Corners the best choice for England
It is important to keep in mind that the stats below are from England’s last five competitive fixtures. England’s qualifying average was relatively low for corners, hitting just 4.50 per game, but there is reason to believe they will take more at the tournament itself. Gareth Southgate’s side have now had six or more corners in each of their last six international games, including their clashes with Brazil and Belgium. Backing either over 5.5 England corners at 1.83 or England to overcome a -2 corner handicap at 2.0 offers great value here. The first would have landed in six straight for England, while the latter has hit in five of their last six.
Serbia vs England Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Main man Mitrovic is the best option for Serbia
Aleksandar Mitrovic had at least three shots in six of his eight starts in qualifying, averaging 3.23 shots per 90 and 1.54 shots on target per 90 as his five goals helped lead Serbia to their first-ever Euros as an independent nation. Mitrovic has hit at least one shot on target in each of his last four competitive appearances for his nation, racking up 13 shots, of which 10 tested the keeper or found the back of the net. His quality in front of goal cannot be doubted, even after a season in the Saudi Pro League, and he will need only one chance to give Jordan Pickford something to think about here. Mitrovic can be backed to hit a shot on target at 1.62, a price that looks way too high for such a clinical finisher.
Jude Bellingham offers the best value here
With Harry Kane and Bukayo Saka both offering short odds to have a shot on target, the best option to go for here is Jude Bellingham. The Real Madrid star has hit a shot on target in three of the four qualifiers he started for England and averaged a very solid 0.86 shots on target per 90, from just 1.14 shots. Kane is likely to have limited space to operate in with Serbia playing a back three, but this should leave room for Bellingham to operate instead. With an impressive shooting record for England and available at 1.67 to have a single shot on target here, England’s number 10 offers by far the best value here.
Serbia vs England Goals and Assists Stats
Dusan Tadic a worthwhile longshot here
Those looking for a longshot to boost their Serbia v England bet builder odds could do far worse than backing Fenerbahce’s Dusan Tadic to score or assist at 4.20. The ex-Southampton and Ajax man scored twice and assisted four times in qualifying, putting him joint-top for goal contributions on six with Aleksandar Mitrovic. Tadic has scored or assisted in each of his last three competitive starts for his national side, and had a productive club season too, scoring 16 goals in his debut campaign in Turkey. He also found the net in 29 minutes off the bench against Sweden in Serbia’s final friendly before this tournament.
Harry Kane is impossible to ignore here
A sensational individual campaign at Bayern Munich may not have resulted in any trophies for Harry Kane, but it does leave him heading into the Euros in imperious goalscoring form. England’s captain has scored or assisted in six of his last seven games and was equally impressive throughout the qualifying campaign for this tournament, scoring or assisting in each of the seven starts he made. Three centre backs may limit his opportunities to score, but with so much attacking talent in behind him, Kane has every chance of getting an assist here if he cannot find the net. He can be backed to score or assist at 1.73 here.
Serbia Cards and Fouls Stats
Aleksandar Mitrovic looks a good option here
Ranking third for fouls committed per 90 in qualifying for Serbia, Al Hilal’s Aleksandar Mitrovic will be a familiar face to most in England’s side. Mitrovic commits 1.38 fouls per 90, and fouled in six of his seven starts for his nation in qualifying. He finds himself up against John Stones and Marc Guehi, who have won 1.08 and 0.70 fouls per 90 respectively. Stones has won two fouls in each of his last two competitive starts for England, and with that stat considered alongside Mitrovic’s impressive fouling streak, backing the ex-Fulham man to foul at least once at 1.30 looks a solid option here.
Marc Guehi an underrated pick for fouls won
Guehi sits just outside the England top five for fouls won per 90 during qualifying, picking up 0.70. As mentioned above, Aleksandar Mitrovic is one of Serbia’s top foulers, but Guehi will also be up against Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who ranked second for fouls per 90 amongst Serbian players during qualifying, committing 1.90 per 90. Guehi meanwhile was fouled in three of his four starts during qualifying, and the Crystal Palace man looks a very solid option to be fouled at least once here at 1.44.
England Cards and Fouls Stats
Declan Rice one of few worthwhile options
England’s predicted lineup for this clash committed remarkably few fouls throughout qualifying, with only Trent Alexander-Arnold making more than one foul per 90 (1.03). Declan Rice sits solidly in the middle of the pack at 0.57 fouls per 90 but is one of the few players to have fouled in multiple games during qualifying. This choice is mostly driven by matchups, with Rice up against Milinkovic-Savic and Nemanja Gudelj, who won 1.55 and 1.30 fouls per 90 in qualifying, the second and fourth-most amongst the Serbian side. Rice also closed the season by fouling in eight straight Premier League games for Arsenal and offers nice value at 1.57 to commit a foul here.
Sasa Lukic worth considering for fouls won
Fulham midfielder Sasa Lukic looks to be the best choice for fouls won from a Serbian perspective, having won a foul in three of his last four competitive starts for his national side. Lukic won 1.19 fouls per 90 in qualifying, placing him just outside the top five in this metric, but still representing a solid return. He also won a foul in five of his last six appearances for Fulham at the end of the season. With solid matchups in Jude Bellingham and Trent Alexander-Arnold (0.57 and 1.03 fouls committed per 90 in qualifying for England), Lukic looks to be undervalued here, as he can be backed at a very generous 1.67.
Serbia vs England Matchups to watch
Aleksandar Mitrovic v John Stones
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic v Marc Guehi
Nemanja Gudelj v Declan Rice
Sasa Lukic v Trent Alexander-Arnold
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