Sevilla host Man United for the 2nd leg of their Europa League tie. United looked in complete control at Old Trafford and were cruising at 2-0 up but then conceded two late own goals to throw things totally wide open. Sevilla have a rich pedigree of history in this competition and have a knack of saving their best results and performances for a Thursday night.
All to play for in this tie, and that means a cracking game in the making for a bet builder. I’ve supplied all the stats below for you to make your bet builder picks with confidence. Take a read through my Stats Pack Guide if you’re unsure on how to use the numbers for your bets.
Argentinian World Cup winner Gonzalo Montiel is suspended but Sevilla have no fresh injury concerns. Several players were rested at the weekend but should come back into the side here. A similar XI to the one they fielded at Old Trafford is to be expected. Moroccan striker Youssef En-Nesyri is pushing for a place after impressing off the bench. His physicality caused United some problems so he should lead the line.
Man United have a plethora of injuries and key midfielder Bruno Fernandes is suspended. The likes of Lisandro Martinez and Varane are ruled out at the back whilst McTominay, Sabitzer and Malacia are all doubtful with injury. Left back Luke Shaw is another who has been having recent issues so Diogo Dalot will probably feature in that position again. Maguire and Lindelof are going to have to play centre back, whilst the trio of attackers should be Sancho-Eriksen and Antony. Marcus Rashford travelled with the squad but the best he can surely hope for is 10 to 15 mins off the bench.
Sevilla average 1.21 goals per game and 1.52 against. Those figures are remarkably similar to their xG and xGA metrics. The Spanish outfit average 11.97 shots per game with 3.79 on target. At the other end of the field, they concede 13.55 shots against on average, with 4.38 on target. Man United managed five SOT last week vs this defence.
Sevilla are one of the dirtiest teams in the whole of Europe. They average a remarkable 3.93 cards per game with their opponents racking up 2.93. La Liga is known for producing a lot of cards but Sevilla take it to another level. Five Sevilla players went in the book at Old Trafford. Corners have been on the lower side in Sevilla games at just 9.27.
Man Utd average 1.53 goals per game and 1.23 goals against. Their xG and xGA figures have correlated quite well. Man United only average 14.63 shots per match which is lower than some other big teams around Europe but have a strong SOT rate of 5.13.
Corners are on the high side in Man United fixtures. They average 4.97 per game themselves, a number which has been increasing throughout the season. The Red Devils have conceded 5.53 corners on average at the other end. In terms of discipline, they have not been lacking for cards, obtaining 2.17 in each fixture and drawing only 1.30 from the opposition.
Player shots and shots on target
Youssef En-Nesyri averages 3.38 shots per 90 mins with 1.38 on target. He will be a focal point upfront and might win a few cheap headers which may count as attempts. Both wingers Ocampos and Suso average close to a couple of shots per 90 mins with midfielders Rakitic and Gudelj also possibilities to fire in some efforts. Gudelj attempted four shots in the first leg, although none were on target.
Without Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes in the starting XI, United are going to need to look to other sources for inspiration. An interesting candidate for shots is Fred who has a poor accuracy rating but does average 2.11 attempts per game and likes to try his luck. Antony has been in much better form recently and averages 3.49 shots with 1.32 on target. He is trending upwards and was very unlucky not to score in the first leg. The trio of Martial, Eriksen and Sancho are all set to be in the side here and will want to make their mark, even if only Martial is reliable in terms of accuracy.
Player goals and assists
Youssef En-Nesyri has scored seven goals and is the main threat upfront for Sevilla. They have generally lacked goals and assists this season though. Lamela is of course dangerous when on the field and Gudelj has scored the occasional goal. Right back Jesus Navas has five assists in all competitions and could be worth looking out for getting forward from that position.
The Red Devils are lacking some key players which leaves the likes of Martial and Sancho with four goals each. Antony also has that number and only one assist from the right wing position. Casemiro and Eriksen are the most likely assist providers for United although any of the front three are capable of creating something for their teammates.
Sevilla average close to 55% possession and are quite a ball-hungry side. They went to Manchester and certainly had their lion’s share of the ball last week (48%), a figure which may yet increase at the Ramon Sanchez-Pijuan Stadium. Players to look out for in the passing department are Rakitic, Bade and Gudelj. Rakitic led them in passing last week with 52.
Man United average nearly 54% possession and it will be interesting to see how they approach this game. The most likely players to rack up the passes are the centre back duo of Maguire and Lindelof. The expectation is that Erik ten Hag’s men will probably have a decent amount of the ball, although they only racked up 52% at Old Trafford in the first leg.
The Spaniards average close to four cards per game which is a huge amount. Gonzalo Montiel is suspended though so one of the main protagonists won’t feature. They have five players who have picked up double digit cards across all competitions with Gudelj, Lamela and Marcos Acuna all huge candidates to go into the book here. That aforementioned trio, along with Rakitic all produced multiple fouls last week at Old Trafford
Marcel Sabitzer is a surprising foul magnet and Casemiro a wise and canny operator. The highest dribbler on the list is Antony, who is worth watching out for due to his back of tricks and high levels of agility. He looks like a matchup nightmare right now and is in good form. Both Sancho and Martial are also of a similar ilk and represent a significant challenge to the Sevilla defence.
Matchups to watch
Marcos Acuna vs Antony
Nemanja Gudelj vs Casemiro
Ivan Rakitic vs Marcel Sabitzer
Man United cards
The midfield duo of Casemiro and Fred are the clear candidates for fouls and cards. Both of them will happily accept a tactical and cynical foul to benefit the team. In Harry Maguire and Diogo Dalot, United have a couple of defenders who are not first team regulars. They might be edgy and eager to prove a point which could lead to mistakes.
Lucas Ocampos is a tricky operator and dribbles 4.49 times per 90 mins. He is fouled nearly twice per game and will give Dalot some issues at left back. Last week he drew three fouls off United. Doubling up on that right hand side will be Jesus Navas. On the other wing then Erik Lamela will also keep Wan-Bissaka busy, whilst Ivan Rakitic is the most likely to draw fouls in midfield. Fernando could replace Montiel in the team and might be a target for Casemiro.
Matchups to watch
Diogo Dalot vs Lucas Ocampos
Fred vs Ivan Rakitic
Casemiro vs Fernando
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
How was that for you? Packed with stats I know. I’ve had a look and there’s a few selections that stood out to me that you can add to your bet builders below.
Sevilla vs Manchester United
Antony had 1 shot on target from 4 attempts in the first leg.
He averages 1.32 shots on target from 3.49 shots in the league.
He’s managed at least 1 shot on target in 12 of his last 14 matches in all competitions.
He’s managed a shot on target in 7 of his 8 Europa League outings.
Casemiro managed 3 shots in the first leg.
He averages 1.07 shots p/90 in the league.
He’s managed 15 shots in 11 Europa League outings, 11 of which have come in the knockout stages.
Gudelj managed 4 shots in the first leg.
He averages 1.37 shots in the league p/90.
In the games he’s played as a defensive midfielder he has managed 21 shots this season in 14 appearances.
I also fancy the Serbian midfielder to commit at least 1 foul.
He made 3 fouls in the first leg and earned himsefl a booking.
No Sevilla player has earned more cards in the league than his 7.
He averages 0.65 fouls, but again in defensive midfield this increases.
He’s committed 7 fouls in his last 3 outings in this position.
He’s also committed 8 fouls in 10 apps in Europe.
He’s up against Fred (draws 1.49 fouls p/90), Casemiro (draws 1.26 fouls p/90), and Antony cutting in off the right flank (draws 1.38 fouls p/90).