Arsenal have barely missed a beat in the Premier League this season and the razor-sharp Gunners will arrive on the south coast armed with plenty of confidence today. For Ralph Hasenhüttl’s young Southampton side, consistency remains elusive, though they did upset the odds to beat Arsenal at St. Mary’s Stadium in April and they will happily play the role of underdogs again today.
Below, you can find our stats pack for the game which is packed with info on all the usual figures and metrics from the teams’ Premier League seasons so far. Our research should give you a leg up in the bet builder markets for today’s game.
If you want to learn more about my stats packs, then check out my Stats Pack Guide. That’ll give you all the information you need to put the numbers below to use.
Predicted Lineups
Armel Bella-Kotchap, Tino Livramento and Kyle Walker-Peters are all out for Southampton in a big triple-blow to the Saints’ chances of causing an upset. Romeo Lavia is also a doubt in midfield.
Stuart Armstrong filled in at right back when Walker-Peters came off injured against Bournemouth on Wednesday, but centre back Lyanco gets the nod in that role. Armstrong will instead be deployed in the midfield.
Mohamed Elneny and Emile Smith Rowe are still sidelined for Arsenal, while Oleksandr Zinchenko is also considered doubtful today.
Takehiro Tomiyasu was favoured ahead of Kieran Tierney at left back by Mikel Arteta against Leeds last week and the Japanese defender starts again at Southampton. Elsewhere, the Gunners’ XI picks itself.
Team Stats
Southampton eked out a narrow 1-0 win at Bournemouth on Wednesday, though they lost the shots battle against the Cherries (9 to 15) and needed keeper Gavin Bazunu’s intervention on a number of occasions to keep a clean sheet.
The Saints are conceding more shots (13.64) and shots on target per 90 (4.09) than they are mustering at the right end (11.36 & 3.36), while only a handful of clubs have rattled the net less often.
Arsenal have been playing some eye-catching attacking football this season, though they showed a more dogged side to their character against Leeds last week, when they won despite conceding 2.02 xG to their 0.82.
The Gunners have won 90% of their Premier League fixtures overall this term and only current champions Man City have been clocking more shots on target per 90 than Mikel Arteta’s side (6.00). Arsenal also hold the third-highest xG figure in the division.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Southampton only managed to rack up nine attempts at Bournemouth on Wednesday evening, though Che Adams hit two of them to maintain his healthy shots per 90 figures for the campaign (2.12). Surprisingly, the Scottish international finds himself on the bench today.
Mohamed Elyounoussi (2.10 shots per 90) carries a threat from wide positions for the Saints as does Adam Armstrong (1.39), while centre-back Duje Caleta-Car (0.79) has a knack for winning first contacts from dead-ball deliveries.
Arsenal’s exciting front four of Gabriel Jesus (3.25), Gabriel Martinelli (2.79), Martin Odegaard (2.73) and Bukayo Saka (2.47) are all registering well in the shots per 90 department this season and all four players had at least one attempt against Leeds last weekend.
Saka notched the winning goal with his only effort on target at Elland Road and the England winger’s influence has been steadily growing in recent weeks.
Player Goals and Assists
Che Adams’ winning goal against Bournemouth in midweek was his third strike in the Premier League this season. Joe Aribo (two) is the Saints’ next-best marksman, though the 26-year-old has only scored once since August.
Seven different players have chipped in with assists for Southampton, though Frenchman Romain Perraud (two) is the only Saint to have created more than one goal.
With eight goal contributions (5G, 3A) in ten appearances, Gabriel Jesus’s impact in the Premier League for Arsenal has been stellar this season, though the Brazilian is currently on a run of four appearances in all competitions without scoring.
Gabriel Martinelli meanwhile, has scored only once in his last nine domestic and European runouts, while Martin Odegaard hasn’t registered in 11 straight appearances since late August. Saka has been picking up the slack with four goals in his last five games, however.
Southampton Cards
Mohammed Salisu has been carded twice in the Premier League this season and without his regular injured partner at the back Armel Bella-Kotchap, he may be a little more vulnerable today.
Stuart Armstrong (two cards in three starts) will look to play with a bit of tenacity and energy which could see him fall afoul of the referee, while James Ward-Prowse (two cards) is always good for a nibble or two in midfield.
Gabriel Jesus (fouled 3.26 times p/90) is a tireless worker up front for Arsenal and his clever off-the ball-work and close controls should trouble Salisu today.
Gabriel Martinelli (fouled 2.27 times p/90) will be under instruction to test Stuart Armstrong as often as he can today and that individual duel has buckets of card-producing potential.
Granit Xhaka (fouled 0.9 times per/90) always likes to turn midfield into a battleground and sparks could fly during his clashes with Saints’ combatant Ward-Prowse.
Match-Ups to watch
Mohammed Salisu vs Gabriel Jesus
Stuart Armstrong vs Ben White
James Ward-Prowse vs Granit Xhaka
Arsenal Cards
William Saliba (four cards) has been turning heads with his performances at centre-half for Arsenal this season, though the Frenchman has also been attracting plenty of interest from referees. Saliba was carded again at Elland Road against Leeds last weekend.
Ben White (two cards) has a mistimed challenge or two in his locker at right back, while Granit Xhaka (two cards) can still be relied upon to bring aggression to midfield despite his more attacking role this term.
Che Adams (fouled 1.69 times per 90) is Southampton’s biggest goal-scoring threat and the Scottish international’s physical style of play could ruffle a few of Saliba’s feathers today.
Adam Armstrong (fouled 1.01 times p/90) could have his ankles clipped if he manages to break clear of Ben White, while attacking midfielder Joe Aribo could be one to watch even though the Nigerian doesn’t feature on our list. Aribo plays in the pocket and Granit Xhaka will be tracking his movements with interest.
Match-Ups to watch
William Saliba vs Adam Armstrong
Ben White vs Stuart Armstrong
Granit Xhaka vs Joe Aribo
_____
Arsenal have looked strong so far this season, but could it be Southampton that the Gunners away this weekend? The Saints certainly won’t just sit back, and we could well be in for an exciting, end to end affair.
Good luck if you’re having a bet on this one, and as always, please keep the stakes low and stay in control at all times.
