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Southampton vs Leicester Bet Builder Stats Pack

Southampton vs Leicester Bet Builder Stats Pack Featured Image

Both Southampton and Leicester faced shock exits in the FA Cup in midweek following defeats to League Two Grimsby Town and Championship Blackburn respectively. They’ll be looking to bounce back and focus on climbing the table.

It’s been a wishy washy season for both teams, and the stats below show that. I’ve crunched the data for xG, goals, shots, corners, passes, fouls, and cards to assist you in picking a quality bet builder. To get the best use of all the numbers, utilise my Stats Pack Guide alongside the pack below for the best chance of a winner.

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Predicted Lineups

Ruben Selles experienced the new manager bounce with a debut victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but has since slumped to defeats against Leeds and his first match at St Mary’s versus Grimsby Town. Che Adams and Mohamed Salisu missed that match with knocks and are unlikely to be fit today.

Selles likes to adopt a 4-2-2-2 formation with January signings Paul Onuachu and Kamaldeen Sulemana as the African strike partnership. Romeo Lavia and James Ward-Prowse should sit behind a more advanced Mohamed Elyounoussi and Stuart Armstrong. Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Armel Bella-Kotchap add to the double-barrelled collection.

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Leicester were narrowly edged 1-0 by league leaders Arsenal in their last Premier League outing, and Brendan Rodgers will be tempted to keep that same starting XI for their travels south.

The only change is likely the return of main man James Maddison to the squad, after the manager hinted that he will return to full fitness by kick off.

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Team Stats

Southampton’s stats are woeful. They’ve converted just 0.79 goals per game from an xG of 1.23. Only Everton (17), Wolves (18), and Forest (18) have scored less than the Saints’ 19 in 24. They have conceded more than double that figure (41).

Under Selles, they’ve managed a 1-0 win and a 1-0 loss, so it seems that the boss has sealed up the defence a little. They’ve also received 10 cards in those two games combined, so their season’s average of 1.91 may be an underestimate.

Team Stats 23

Leicester’s games have been pretty evenly matched and they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5. Their leaky defence has been the biggest problem, with only Bournemouth (48) having conceded more than the Foxes (42).

Leicester also concede a hefty 6.17 corners per game compared to just 3.67 in their direction. That difference is even larger on their travels (6.67 to 3.58).

Team Stats 24

Player Shots and Shots on Target

Nigerian forward, Paul Onuachu, is the only player to average over 1 shot on target per game, and that’s assisted by his limited appearances. He’s managed 5 shots, 3 on target, in just 238 minutes of Premier League football. Strike partner Sulemana joins him on the list with 9 shots, but just 2 on target, in 255 minutes.

If Southampton start racking up the fouls, you’d fancy free-kick specialist James Ward-Prowse for an attempt.

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Of the likely starters, Harvey Barnes, Kelechi Iheanacho, and James Maddison are the ones to watch. They average 1.15, 1.09, and 1.06 shots on target p/90. It’s worth noting though that the Foxes only managed 6 shots and 1 on target when they met earlier in the season at the King Power.

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Player Goals and Assists

Che Adams managed 2 goals in that previous match-up to seal the 2-1 comeback win in August. That made up half of his goal tally for the season. The Scotland striker is a doubt to start today with a knock.

The graphic without him is dismal reading, and James Ward-Prowse is by far the most likely to make the score sheet with a goal or an assist. He’s priced at 2.40 for a goal contribution today.

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James Maddison got the goal in the reverse fixture for Leicester, and the England international has 13 other goal contributions to talk about this season in just 17 appearances. Rated at 2.50 to score or assist seems decent.

The foursome of Maddison, Barnes, Iheanacho, and Nampalys Mendy got on the scoresheet vs Tottenham on the 11th February, but only Iheanacho has scored since with a consolation against Blackburn.

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Player Passing

In Ruben Selles’ first two Premier League games, his team have averaged just 38.5% possession. Albeit, this will be there first home game in the league under the new boss so we may be in for a surprise.

If they do mount a possession game, Croatian centre-back Duje Caleta-Car and James Ward-Prowse are the only ones I could see breaking the 50 pass mark given Salisu is likely unfit to play.

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Leicester themselves aren’t a massively possession-based team, and they average just under 50% of the ball. Against the Saints though I’d expect them to edge this side of the game.

Wout Faes is the main pass master in the side averaging 64.9 passes p/90, while Nampalys Mendy may be one to watch for 50+ passes.

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Southampton Cards

Referee Robert Jones averages a modest 3.87 cards per game in the Premier League this season, and neither side have a crazy high average. That being said, as I mentioned earlier Southampton have received 10 cards in their first 2 league games under Ruben Selles.

Romeo Lavia, Stuart Armstrong, and Armel Bella-Kotchap all received a booking in both of those games.

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All 5 of Leicester’s expected starters in midfield make the graphic for fouls drawn. Both James Maddison and Brazilian winger Tete draw over two fouls p/90.

Leicester Stats Pack cards against

Matchups to watch:

Romeo Lavia vs Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall

Stuart Armstrong vs Harvey Barnes

Armel Bella-Kotchap vs James Maddison

Leicester Cards

James Maddison is the serial offender for the visitors, and he has now received 6 bookings this season. He’s prone to a late challenge, and makes his frustrations known when his team aren’t performing.

English compatriots Harvey Barnes and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall are worth mentioning too. Barnes averages more than his compatriot for fouls p/90 (1.30), however Dewsbury-Hall has averaged 1.28 fouls p/90 and has made 2 or more fouls in each of his last 4 appearances. He’s made at least one foul in 8 of his last 9.

Leicester Stats Pack cards for

No Southampton player has been fouled more than Romeo Lavia (28), and he’ll be expecting a tight fight in the middle of the park. The young defensive midfielder draws well over 2 fouls per game.

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Matchups to watch:

James Maddison vs Armel Bella-Kotchap

Harvey Barnes vs Ainsley Maitland-Niles

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall vs Romeo Lavia

My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack

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Compiling the stats pack takes some pretty in depth insight into the two teams, and while I was doing that there were some selections that my eyes lit up at. I’ve put them down below which you can load as a 4/1 bet builder.

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Southampton vs Leicester

Calendar 4th March
Football icon kick off 17:30
Football icon Paul Onuachu 1+ shots on target
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Southampton’s new look front two has been promising.

Onuachu has managed 5 shots and 3 shots on target in just 238 minutes of action.

That’s an average of 1.13 shots on target p/90.

Those came against tough opposition in Wolves, Chelsea away, and Leeds away.

Given Leicester concede an average of 4.42 shots on target per game, I’d expect Onuachu to notch one.

Football icon James Maddison 1+ shots on target
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Maddison will want to return to action with a bang. And a bang on target would be useful.

He averages 1.06 on target and attempts 3.38 shots p/90.

He’s the designated free kick taker too, and he’s more than capable of making the keeper work.

He’s managed a shot on target in each of his last 3 outings, and even notched 6 attempts against Man United in his last game.

Football icon Kamaldeen Sulemana 2+ shots
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Another one of Southampton’s new signings, and this one has a different style of shot-taking.

He’s popped off 9 shots in his 4 appearances with just 2 of them making it on target.

That’s why I’ve fancied him for 2 shots, and I’m not convinced they’ll make the mark. But we don’t need that.

Football icon Romeo Lavia to commit 1+ fouls
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Romeo Lavia averages 1.01 fouls p/90, which will do the job for us today.

But more importantly, the young defensive midfielder has his opposite numbers raking in a huge number of fouls.

James Maddison is fouled 2.52 times p/90, while Tete draws 2.12 fouls and Dewsbury-Hall another 1.07.

The midfielder has also been booked more times than any other Saints player, and has received bookings in each of Ruben Selles’ first league games in charge. His role is clear in his team.

Football icon James Maddison to commit 1+ fouls
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For the other foul, I’ve gone for Leicester’s top card receiver in James Maddison.

He has also been booked 6 times this season, and averages 1.21 fouls p/90.

Again, he’s got a great battle on his hands in the midfield.

No Saints player has drawn more fouls than Romeo Lavia’s 28 – that’s an average of 2.35 p/90.

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