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Southampton vs Man United
14th September
kick off 12:30 Man United to win Over 4.5 Southampton corners Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ shots Noussair Mazraoui to be fouled 1+ times 
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Leg 1: Man United to win
United’s start to the season has been poor, but this price cannot be ignored. The Red Devils won five of their six games against newly-promoted sides last season, and nine of their 12 games against sides who finished in the bottom six.
Across the six games against the newly-promoted sides, Erik ten Hag’s men accumulated 12.8 xG, an average of 2.1 per game. So far this season, they have generated at least 1.4 xG in each game, despite a difficult start including games against Brighton and Liverpool.
Southampton meanwhile have allowed 2.2 xG and 2.8 xG in their last two league games, against Nottingham Forest and Brentford. They have lost all three league games so far and were especially poor in their first home game of the season, notching just 0.1 xG against Forest.
They also did themselves no favours by failing to beat 10-man Newcastle on the opening weekend, despite having a man advantage for 62 minutes.
Despite their struggles so far, it is a big surprise to see United priced so high to win this game. They have been far from impressive, but 1.73 for them to beat struggling Southampton is too good to pass up.
Leg 2: Over 4.5 Southampton corners
Man United were the worst side in terms of corners conceded last season, shipping 279 for an average of 7.34 allowed per game, with Sheffield United second-worst on 7.08. Though they have done better this season, they still allowed eight corners against Fulham in their opening game.
Against the sides that finished in the bottom five last season, United allowed five or more corners in eight of their 10 clashes, and in all five of the away games. Southampton’s strong corner tallies last season suggest they can keep this run going this season too.
The Saints took more corners than any other Championship side by a huge margin, averaging 7.41 per game, over a full corner more than second-placed Coventry’s 6.20. They have been racking them up in the Premier League too, averaging exactly 6.0 per game so far, and taking 12 against Newcastle and eight against Brentford.
Southampton’s press should allow them to win the ball high up the pitch against United, with the Red Devils often struggling to play out from the back. That should allow the Saints to generate chances and rack up some corners here.
Leg 3: Kyle Walker-Peters to have 1+ shots
Allowing wing-back Kyle Walker-Peters to get forward and support the attack has been a big part of Russell Martin’s tactical plan since he joined Southampton, and little has changed with the step up to the top flight.
Walker-Peters has started all three of Southampton’s games this season, averaging an impressive 2.07 shots per 90, with only strikers Adam Armstrong, Cameron Archer and Ben Brereton Diaz taking more shots per 90.
The 27-year-old has now had at least one shot in all three Premier League games so far, and that has not been only in the games in which the Saints had plenty of shots. Southampton had only five shots in the game against Forest, with Walker-Peters taking three of those. He had two shots against Brentford last time out, and one in the opener against Newcastle.
With United allowing double figure shot totals against Fulham (14) and Brighton (11), this looks a good price for Walker-Peters to pull the trigger at least once.
LEG 4: Noussair Mazraoui to be fouled 1+ times
Across the season to date, only two players have been fouled more times per 90 than Noussair Mazraoui’s 1.03, those being Alejandro Garnacho (1.43) and Kobbie Mainoo (2.41). The Morocco international full-back is comfortable on the ball and likes to get forward, both factors that increase the likelihood of him being fouled in any given game.
He has started all three of United’s Premier League games this season, drawing a foul in each, whilst he was fouled twice in his appearance for his national side against Gabon during the international break.
Mazraoui will be up against Kyle Walker-Peters and Ben Brereton Diaz here, with the wing-back committing 1.03 fouls per 90, and the forward racking up 1.07. Walker-Peters has fouled in two of his three Premier League starts this season, twice against Newcastle and once against Nottingham Forest, whilst Diaz has done the same, fouling twice against Brentford and once against Forest.
With two players who can consistently be relied upon to foul in close proximity, it would be a surprise if this was Mazraoui’s first game of the season in which he was not fouled. He looks well worth backing at 1.62 to be fouled at least once here.
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