Southampton blew the entire competition wide open by dumping Man City out of the League Cup in the previous round 2-0. Their reward is a two legged semi-final vs Newcastle United. Eddie Howe’s visitors are searching for their first major trophy in over 50 years and will be strongly targeting this competition. Saints are bottom of the Premier League table and might have bigger fish to fry, but new manager Nathan Jones has been using cup competitions to build up confidence and momentum.
Just as with my Premier League stats packs, I’ve provided the stats from the two teams’ domestic seasons below for this EFL Cup semi final, which is filled with everything you need to pick smarter selections for your bet builder. Use the info along with the tips in my Stats Pack Guide to beat the bookies today.
Predicted Lineups
Southampton manager Nathan Jones has plenty of dilemmas here. The likes of Djenepo and Mara were excellent in the previous round, but he dropped them against Villa at the weekend. Che Adams or Mara will start upfront, with preference given to the latter. Other question marks remain at left back where Walker-Peters might retain his spot over Romain Perraud. The rest of the defence and midfield look fairly straightforward for the Saints who will probably line up in a 4-2-3-1 system.
Bruno Guimaraes suffered a bad looking injury vs Fulham last weekend but miraculously rose from the dead to play the full 90 mins against Crystal Palace on Saturday evening. He should be good to go again in such a key fixture. The one possible change to the team for the Magpies could be upfront where Alexander Isak is pushing for a start ahead of Callum Wilson. It will be a tough decision for the manager with the £70m Swede perhaps most likely to feature in the EFL Cup.
Team stats
Southampton have underachieved compared to their xG and xGA metrics. They only average 0.85 goals per game, but it should be much higher at 1.26. They fire in 11.20 shots per match but only 3.50 of those have been on target, which is obviously a major problem. At the other end of the field Southampton only concede 3.95 SOT against per match, which isn’t too bad. They do however concede over 12.40 shots overall in each fixture,
Corners have been slightly higher than average in Saints games. They average 4.20 themselves in each fixture, whilst their opponents have obtained 5.30. Cards have also been hovering around the above average range. Southampton themselves average 1.60 cards per game with 1.65 against.
Newcastle average 1.65 goals per game and just 0.55 against. They have been massively overarching defensively because their xGA per game is as big as 1.37 A combination of strong defending and some exceptional keeping from Nick Pope has been the main reason for this overachievement. Pope proved his worth with a magnificent save vs Palace at the weekend. The Magpies have fired in an average of 14.30 shots in each fixture, of which 4.80 have been on target. Only 3.05 SOT against per match has been crucial in restricting their goals conceded.
Eddie Howe’s men have a brilliant set piece taker in Kieran Trippier and regularly play for corners and free kicks. They average a massive 7.15 corners per game and 4.30 against. They registered an astonishing 15 corners on Saturday vs Palace. Newcastle games can get a bit frantic, and the cards have flown. The Toon average 1.75 cards per match with their opponents picking up 2.40. Newcastle matches can potentially explode given the right sort of conditions.
Player shots and shots on target
Whoever starts upfront will be a candidate to shoot regularly, be it Che Adams or Sekou Mara. Adams averages 2.13 shots per 90 mins with a relatively poor 0.79 accuracy. Mara has fired in nearly four shots per 90 mins with a terrible 0.56 accuracy. Look at shots rather than SOT for either of those two.
Both Sam Edozie and Adam Armstrong average around 1.50 shots per 90 mins with an accuracy ratio close to 40%. James Ward-Prowse often catches the eye from set pieces. He averages 1.05 shots per 90 mins with roughly half of those efforts on target. At some stage, you have to think he will get an opportunity to shoot directly at goal from a free kick.
Callum Wilson averages well over three shots per 90 mins but only has a SOT rate of 1.30 He scores plenty of goals but isn’t always the most accurate of shooters. Allan St Maximin has similar numbers and averages 2.59 shots per 90 mins. Attacking midfielder Miguel Almiron has been amazing this season. He is averaging 2.45 shots per game but only converting that into 0.76 SOT. Alexander Isak is a strong candidate to start here. His data is more limited from just 5 appearances, but he averages 2.81 shots per 90 mins with a very high SOT ratio of 2.19.
Player goals and assists
Che Adams is the leading Southampton attacker with four goals. Set piece specialist James-Ward Prowse has now netted five times and also weighed in with two assists. Ward-Prowse looks about the best chance Southampton have for hitting the back of the net at the moment. Left wing back Romain Perraud has two goals and two assists, but in general the scoring charts for Southampton are fairly bleak.
Miguel Almiron tops the Newcastle scoring charts, netting 9 goals. His form has dried up though with no goal in any of his last 6 appearances. Callum Wilson has scored 6 times and also contributed with three assists but is another in poor form with no goals since the World Cup break. Midfielder Bruno Guimaraes has both 3 goals and 3 assists. Kieran Trippier is the primary set piece taker and leads the Toon with four Premier League assists this season. Isak has scored three goals from just five appearances, including a recent last minute winner vs Fulham.
Player passing
Southampton only average 44% possession, a figure that has typically been even lower under the management of Nathan Jones. Apart from when they faced lower league Lincoln City, the former Luton Town boss has yet to oversee a match where Saints have had more of the ball. None of the Saints players on this list average more than 60 passes per 90 mins. James Ward Prowse is one of their most involved players and takes every set piece so it’s not surprising to see him top of the list (57.70). With Jones in the hot seat then under passing lines look to be the best strategy for all their players.
Manager Eddie Howe is typically not a possession hungry coach and their statistics in this category can be mixed. They only average 44.4% off the ball away from home this season. However, it is worth mentioning that recent dynamics have changed. Newcastle dominated the ball vs Palace on Saturday (61%) and are expected to have the lion’s share of possession here considering the opponent and manager they face.
Kieran Trippier comfortably leads their list for average passes per 90 mins (70.7), helped primarily by him being on literally every set piece. He is such a key player for Newcastle. Midfielder Bruno Guimaraes is the only other Magpie who averages comfortably over 50 passes per 90 mins. The top defender on the passing list is Fabian Schar (50.4).
Southampton Cards
The Saints rank quite moderately for fouls and cards. Centre back Salisu has four cards, and he also averages 1.11 fouls per 90 mins. Winger Mohamed Elyounoussi has been in and out of the team under Nathan Jones, but should he feature then he’s one to keep an eye on. The Norwegian international averages 1.59 fouls per 90 mins, the most for any Saints player and also has three cards. Both Lyanco and Lavia average over one foul per 90 mins and are also candidates in the disciplinary markets. Lyanco has especially seen his foul count rise recently and has four cards to his name.
Bruno Guimaraes is a foul magnet and is going to be an obvious problem for Romeo Lavia in the middle of the park. Whoever plays upfront, be it Wilson or Isak will be a crucial matchup against Salisu. Allan St Maximin will no doubt be unleashed at some stage on the left wing. The Frenchman averages an astonishing 8.70 dribbles per 90 mins. Lyanco will have his hands full with him and also Joelinton throughout the game.
Matchups to watch
Mohammed Salisu vs Alexander Isak or Callum Wilson
Romeo Lavia vs Bruno Guimaraes
Lyanco vs Joelinton & Allan St Maximin
Newcastle cards
There is no getting away from the fact that Newcastle are a dirty team. Joelinton has obtained seven cards this season and averages nearly two fouls per 90 mins. Kieran Trippier usually fouls at least once per game and has netted five cards. Centre back Fabian Schar is another player worth keeping an eye on for a potential card. Upfront, Callum Wilson is a pressing forward type of player and will get stuck in, often mistiming a tackle. Isak could replicate this role if the Swedish international starts instead.
Sam Edozie averages a massive 6.15 dribbles per 90 mins and is fouled 3.46 times on average. Sekou Mara is another with a high dribble rate and will cause issues to the Newcastle defenders on the break. In midfield Romeo Lavia dribbles nearly 1.59 times per 90 mins. Two other players to keep an eye on are Djenepo and Walker-Peters who could be operating on the same side. Both have high dribbling rates, over 3 per 90 mins and possess raw pace. Both Joelinton and Kieran Trippier could find themselves under pressure in this match as a result.
Matchups to watch
Kieran Trippier vs Moussa Djenepo
Joelinton vs Kyle Walker-Peters
Fabian Schar vs Sekou Mara
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
If you’re looking at the stats pack and wondering how to make best use of it, here’s just a few selections that stood out to me as value based on the numbers.
Southampton vs Newcastle
24th January
kick off 20:00 Newcastle to take more corners
Newcastle take 7.15 corners per game and concede 4.30.
Southampton take 4.20 corners per game, and concede 5.30.
Kieran Trippier to attempt 50+ passesNewcastle average 51% possession to Southampton’s 44%.
Kieran Trippier average 70.7 passes p/90.
Bruno Guimaraes to attempt 50+ passesNewcastle average 51% possession to Southampton’s 44%.
Bruno Guimaraes averages 54.7 passes p/90.
Newcastle to have 5 or more shots on targetNewcastle average 4.80 shots on target per game from 14.30 shots.
Southampton concede 12.40 shots and 3.95 shots on target per game.
Load my bet builder picks 
