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Spain vs Italy Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Spain vs Italy

Calendar 20th June
Football icon kick off 20:00
Football icon Spain to have 4+ Shots on Target
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Spain have had 5+ shots on target in 7 of their last 9 competitive games, including 5 v Croatia last week.

Italy have allowed 4+ shots on target in 2 of their last 4 competitive games and conceded 6 and 4 shots on target to England in qualifying, along with 4 and 3 to Ukraine.

Football icon Davide Frattesi to be fouled 1+ times
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Frattesi won 1.00 fouls per 90 across qualifying and the first game of the Euros, winning fouls in 3 of his last 4.

Directly up against Rodri, who has fouled 1.38 times per 90 in qualifying and v Croatia, committing fouls in 4 straight competitive games for Spain.

Football icon Nicolo Barella to have 1+ shots
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Barella averages 1.25 shots per 90 across his qualifying and Euro 2024 appearances.

He has taken at least one shot in 6 of his last 7 competitive games for his country, having a shot on target in three straight.

Football icon Lamine Yamal to have 1+ shots on target
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Yamal has averaged exactly 1.00 shots on target per 90 in his appearances for Spain in the qualifiers and at the Euros.

He has had a shot on target in 4 of his last 5 competitive matches for the national team, and has taken 2+ shots in 3 of his last 5.

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Thursday’s Euros action comes to a close with an absolutely huge clash between Spain and Italy.

Spain got off to a fantastic start as they picked apart a dangerous Croatia team to emerge with a comfortable 3-0 victory.

Italy, meanwhile, were stunned by Albania in the opening seconds, but recovered to claim a 2-1 win against the side assumed to be this group’s whipping boys.

If you’re planning on getting involved with a Spain vs Italy bet builder, we’ve got you covered here on Bad Man Betting, with a ready-made bet builder and range of tips from all the most popular bet builder markets.

You can check out our Stats Pack Guide to take advantage of the data in this article ahead of kick-off. The data in this Stats Pack comes from both sides opening fixtures, so keep that in mind when browsing this piece.

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Spain vs Italy Predicted Lineups

Why change a winner for de la Fuente

Spain boss Luis de la Fuente must have been delighted with the performance of his side against tricky opponents in Croatia, and as such there is little reason to rotate his team here. Another win will secure qualification for the next round, and once again the youngsters Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams will be trusted to help Spain claim all three points here. Pedri will start again in midfield over Dani Olmo, while Marc Cucurella is preferred to Alex Grimaldo, and Robin Le Normand and Nacho are the likely preferred centre back pairing as Aymeric Laporte remains on the bench.

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Italy to stick with four at the back

Luciano Spalletti has the option to switch to three at the back for this one, but we expect he will stick with a back four and keep the same starting XI as he did against Albania. Federico Chiesa looks set to be fit to play, so retains his spot on the right, while Gianluca Scamacca continues to be the first choice to lead the line for the Italians. The forward line and midfield mostly pick themselves, but there are choices to be made at the back where Italy are deepest. Riccardo Calafiori of Bologna has impressed in the camp and will keep his spot at centre back alongside Alessandro Bastoni, while Federico Dimarco and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are expected to continue to start at left and right back respectively.

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Spain vs Italy Team Stats

Spain worth a punt on the corner markets

Though not the most frequent winners of corners in qualifying, Spain’s 6.88 per game is amongst the better marks any team achieved. Before the Croatia game, Spain had gone 136 competitive matches having had more possession than their opponents. They averaged 73.1% in the group stages and should see most of the ball here too. Having not given up a single corner to Croatia while having five of their own, we expect them to win the corner battle here too. Italy gave up three corners to Albania, while taking just five, despite having 68% of the ball and 17 shots. That makes it look highly likely that Spain will dominate the possession, and the corner count in this game. They can be backed to win the corner match bet at 1.57.

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Italy concede plenty of chances

Spain have had at least five shots on target in seven of their last nine competitive games, including against Croatia last time out. That does not bode well for an Italy side that gives up plenty of good opportunities to their opponents. Italy have allowed four or more shots on target in two of their last four competitive games. In the qualifying campaign, they allowed England to have six and four shots on target in their two losses to Gareth Southgate’s side and gave up three and four to Ukraine. With Spain to have four or more shots on target available at 1.40, it looks a no-brainer here.

20 06 2024 ITALY betbuilder stats pack TEAM STATS

Spain vs Italy Shots and Shots on Target Stats

Lamine Yamal to hit the target here

Barcelona wonderkid Lamine Yamal has already become the youngest-ever player to feature at the Euros, and he came so close to becoming the youngest to score too, being denied by Dominik Livakovic as he streaked through on goal against Croatia. Yamal has had 1.00 shots on target per 90 from 2.00 shots per 90 in his qualifiers and first Euros game for Spain, taking two or more shots in three of his last five across the two stages. Yamal has also had a shot on target in four of his last five competitive matches for Spain and can be backed for a shot on target here at a very appealing 1.91.

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Nicolo Barella good value for a shot

Nicolo Barella scored a beauty in the opening game against Albania and has been averaging well over a shot per 90 (1.25) for his national team across the qualifiers and at the tournament. The Inter midfielder is widely considered to be Italy’s best player and has now had a shot on target in three straight competitive games for his national side. Barella has also taken a shot in six of his last seven competitive starts for his country yet sits as high as 1.50 to have a single shot here, making him well worth taking.

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Spain vs Italy Goals and Assists Stats

Alvaro Morata the obvious choice

Morata’s seventh goal for Spain at the European Championship came in the game against Croatia last week and moved him up to third in the all-time European Championship goalscorer charts. The Atletico Madrid striker scored more than anyone else in a Spanish shirt throughout the qualifiers and the first game of the tournament, bagging five goals. Morata has now scored in two of his last four competitive games for Spain, and with the pace and trickery of Yamal and Nico Williams on either flank, he should be provided at least a couple of chances here and looks a good bet to put one away at 2.88 to score anytime.

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Pellegrini in good form recently

The only member of Italy’s side to have contributed to a goal in both of their last two competitive games is Lorenzo Pellegrini. The Roma midfielder has two assists in his last two, and also had two shots in the game against Albania. He scored a goal in one of the two friendlies he started before this tournament got underway, and with low-scoring Italy offering little value in this market, Pellegrini looks like a solid option offering nice value here. He can be backed to score or assist at 3.60.

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Spain Cards and Fouls Stats

Cucurella to struggle with Chiesa

Chelsea’s Marc Cucurella has a tough assignment here, up against the lively Federico Chiesa who looked sharp against Albania, particularly in the first half having only recently come back to full fitness. Cucurella has committed the second-most fouls for Spain across the qualifiers and the Euros so far, at 1.00 per 90. He fouled once against Croatia and his desire to get forward can often see him caught out of position. Juventus man Chiesa is joint-first for fouls won for Italy, winning 2.00 per 90 across qualifying and the finals themselves. He has been fouled in two of his last three competitive games for Italy. Cucurella can be backed to commit a foul at 1.36.

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Davide Frattesi a solid option to win a foul

The furthest forward of Italy’s midfield three, Davide Frattesi looks undervalued in the fouls markets. The Inter midfielder has won 1.00 fouls per 90 across the qualifiers and the Euros themselves and has now won a foul in three of his last four competitive starts for Italy, including last time out against Albania. He is matched up against Rodri, who at 1.38 fouls per 90 has committed the most fouls of any Spain player through the first game and the qualifiers, and who has now fouled in each of his last four competitive starts for Spain. Frattesi can be backed to win a foul at a very appealing 1.50.

20 06 2024 ITALY betbuilder stats pack CARDS DRAWN

Italy Cards and Fouls Stats

Bastoni looks highly likely to foul

There are few great options in the fouls market for Italy, but we do like the look of Alessandro Bastoni to commit a foul, even at the short price of 1.25. A nice odds-boosting option to round off a bet builder with a relatively safe choice, Bastoni has committed fouls in four of his last five competitive appearances for Italy, and at 1.40 fouls per 90, committed more fouls than any other Italian through qualifying and at these finals so far. He is up against Alvaro Morata, who has been fouled in four straight competitive games for Spain, and who has won the second-most fouls per 90 through qualifying and the Croatia game, at 1.43.

20 06 2024 ITALY betbuilder stats pack CARDS FOR

Pedri looks great to be fouled

Pedri did not feature for Spain throughout qualifying, having last played for the national side at the 2022 World Cup before returning in a friendly against Andorra on June 5. The Barcelona midfielder won two fouls on his return to competitive action for the national side against Croatia, and has solid matchups here which suggests winning another foul is highly likely. Frattesi and Barella are the opponents, committing 0.67 and 1.00 fouls per 90 respectively. Frattesi has committed a foul in three straight competitive fixtures for Italy, while Barella has done so in three of his last five. Both fouled against Albania, and backing Pedri to be fouled 1+ times at 1.36 looks a very solid option here.

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Spain vs Italy Matchups to watch

Marc Cucurella v Federico Chiesa

Rodri v Davide Frattesi

Alvaro Morata v Alessandro Bastoni

Pedri v Nicolo Barella

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