Spain vs Netherlands Bet Builder Tips, Preview

I think it goes under the radar just how good a player Nico Williams is. The Spanish star may have decided against a big money move to Barcelona in the summer, but he’s putting up some masterful performances at Bilbao, and was comfortably Spain’s best player on Thursday night. Williams opened the scoring in the first leg of Spain’s Nations League quarter final vs the Netherlands, and it was a late Williams shot on target that resulted in Mikel Merino’s late equaliser. He managed 3 total efforts on target on Thursday, and has now hit the target in each of his last 5 starts for his nation. He’s in a rich vein of form in general as well, with 8 shots on target in his last 4 for club and country.

We’re talking about a player here who has already stepped up and shown that he’s a man for the big occasion. Williams opened the scoring in the Euro 2024 final, and put 2 past Roma in a must win Europa League second leg just last week. He has the pace and quick feet to get in behind and create his own chances, but much improved movement off the ball means he’s now a far greater threat in general. Spain managed 6 shots on target on Thursday, and for me there are still question marks surrounding this Netherlands back line. Germany hit 5 shots on target against them in both of their Nations League outings last year, so it’s fair to assume that they should struggle once again against an elite European outfit.

Virgil Van Dijk plays a fundamentally different game for his country. The calm, cool, and collected approach that we so often see at club level isn’t quite as obvious when he dons the colours of the Netherlands, and for the most part that’s due to the players he has around him. Van Dijk committed 3 fouls against Spain on Thursday, evidence of the far more aggressive approach that he takes at international level. As a result, he’s averaging 1.22 fouls P/90 in the Nations League, and the fact that he’s committed at least 1 foul in 9 of his last 11 appearances for his country bodes well.

This Netherlands side are good, but they lack the quality operators to support Van Dijk in the way in which he’s supported at Liverpool. That side has an abundance of quality, allowing Van Dijk to often sit off and sweep. Against a Spain side that like to dominate the ball, he will need to defend on the front foot. Two of Van Dijk’s fouls came against Morata and Yamal on Thursday, a duo he will likely face again. The former’s capability in front of goal is questionable, but Morata will put himself about, as evidenced by his 1.56 fouls drawn P/90 in the Nations League. If forced out wide to deal with Yamal as well, then Van Dijk is facing a player drawing a ridiculous 3.44 fouls P/90 in this competition. Both can hurt this Netherlands defence, Van Dijk will need to put a stop to them.

I think it’s safe to say that it’s time away with this Spanish squad that’s resulted in what I see as an incredible amount of progression over the last year in Marc Cucurella’s game. The Chelsea full back was outstanding in the Euros last summer, a tournament that I think has really kickstarted a new chapter in his career. He’s been solid in a struggling Chelsea side, and continues to perform for his country. He committed 2 fouls against the Netherlands on Thursday, and for me that’s evidence of the commitment he so often shows in the defensive phase of the game. This is a player that committed a foul in every single one of his Euro 2024 appearances, and one that averages 1.20 fouls P/90 in the Premier League; he’s so committed, and he will do anything to help the team win.

I actually think the fouls that Cucurella commits are positive for the most part, and highlight that he’s willing to get stuck into the dirty side of the game. Make no mistake, this Dutch outfit will see a weakness in this Spain back line, they struggle to deal with players running at them, and the likes of Gakpo, Simons, and Frimpong will cause plenty of problems. It was Frimpong who Cucurella fouled twice on Thursday, and whilst he may drop into the back 4 here, his runs from deep will still pose a threat. Simons could well start in front of him, and his 1.28 fouls drawn P/90 will only add to the pressure placed on Cucurella here.

They may well have laboured to a 2-2 draw on Thursday thanks to a late strike from Mikel Merino, but it’s still difficult to look past a Spain side with this much quality and in this kind of form. Since a shock 2-0 loss to Scotland in March of 2023, De La Fuente has coached his country to a run of 20 wins and 2 draws in 22 competitive games. They’ve scored 54 and conceded just 14 in the process, and the style of football makes them so difficult to play against. De La Fuente has moved on from the traditional ‘keep-ball’ approach implemented by the likes of Aragones and Del Bosque, but it’s more of an evolution rather than a complete re-branding of Spanish football.

Spain will still pass you to death, but the likes of Williams and Yamal in wide areas gives them the pace and dynamism to completely switch things up. That pair can win games on their own, and the Netherlands will need to be careful and not over commit to stopping those two, as there are threats elsewhere. This Dutch side are good, but now on Spanish soil I can see them sitting off, a dangerous game to play against the best national team in Europe. They’re liable to throw away results as is, winning just 2 of their last 8 internationals, and whilst they’ve only suffered 2 defeats in that run, they were absolutely outplayed in both of their outings against Germany in the group stage of the Nations League.