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Spain vs Scotland Stats and Bet Builder Tips Preview

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Spain will be looking to avenge their early UEFA Euro 2024 qualification defeat at Hampden Park when they host Scotland tonight.  The shock victory was a massive shot in the arm for a Scotland side that have all but secured their place in Germany having won all five group matches, including victory against a Norway side containing Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard.  

That run is most likely to come under threat in what is undeniably the toughest game in the group – Spain away. That loss against Scotland seemed to awaken something in the Spaniards who since have won the UEFA Nations League, and humiliated both Georgia and Cyprus, scoring 13 goals in the process.  

This is an important game for Spain and their hopes of qualification while victory for Scotland not only secures their qualification. We have taken a deep dive into some bet builder markets to help you land a winner.

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Spain vs Scotland Predicted Lineups

Wide changes necessary for Spain 

Luis De La Fuente is finding some balance through the spine of his Spain team but he has been dealt a blow with Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal being absent. Yamal’s club team-mate Ferran Torres is a cert to make the XI now. Meanwhile, another Barcelona youngster, Alejandro Balde, should step into the side to replace Jose Gaya, who also misses out. Arsenal goalkeeper David Raya hasn’t quite done enough to displace Unai Simon.  

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Tierney absence a blow for Scotland 

Consistent selection has been a big part of Steve Clarke’s Scotland side rising above Spain and Norway in the group standings, with seven of their first choice XI starting all five matches. One of those will be forced to miss out with Kieran Tierney unavailable due to injury. Liam Cooper, Scott McKenna and Greg Taylor will be hoping to replace him. Elsewhere, the other major decision will be whether to start Che Adams or Lyndon Dykes in attack.  

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Spain vs Scotland Team Stats

Spain completely dominant – except for vs Scotland 

Spain have played four games in qualifying. They have had a minimum 63% of the ball in each of those games and over 70% in the other three. They have managed a whopping 82 shots and 34 efforts on target. However, their previous game against Scotland was the outlier, both sides managed less than ten shots on goal with three apiece hitting the target. Notably, 15 of their 34 fouls in qualifying came against Scotland while they drew ten or more fouls and two or more yellow cards in their first three games – Cyprus decided that not tackling Spain was a good plan, apparently.  

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Scotland games draw a card or five 

Scotland have been pretty consistent in front of goal – they have managed a minimum of three and a maximum of five shots on target in their five qualifying matches. They did take just five and nine shots against Norway and Spain, evidently finding it more difficult to create against better opposition. Cards are a big feature of their matches – they have collected and drawn at least two yellow cards in four of their five matches and have committed 11 or more fouls in every game.  

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Spain vs Scotland Players to watch  

Morata now a leader for Spain 

Alvaro Morata always gave off the impression he was permanently a young man just waiting to explode on the world stage and it never really happened. Still, his record for Spain has been most impressive. He has a respectable 33 goals from 66 appearances for the national team and scored a hat-trick against Georgia recently. Though he failed to have a meaningful effort at goal against Norway, he managed a whopping seven against Italy and nine over two matches against Georgia and Cyprus – he’s 1.62 to have four or more shots against Scotland. 

Merino has come a long way since Newcastle days 

Few probably remember much about Mikel Merino’s spell at Newcastle as a youngster but he has carved out a decent career for himself since, and is now a regular for the Spanish national team. He struggled in the reverse fixture against Scotland but has otherwise performed well, particularly further forward where he has managed a shot on target in four of his last five starts (2.0) and two or more shots in three (1.62).  

Rodri fit and fresh after suspension 

Rodri has been forced to miss recent games for Man City meaning he comes into this international break fresh. Surprisingly, for a man known to be the defensive lynchpin of any midfield he plays in, Rodri is carving out a role as an attacking threat. He has managed two or more shots (1.57) in five of his last six games for Spain, having a shot on target in four (1.91) – even managing to do both against Scotland and Norway.  

McTominay has a knack for goals 

Scott McTominay enters this international break on the back of sending Old Trafford into raptures after a late double secured victory over Brentford. It’s something he has done brilliantly on international duty – he has six goals in qualifying, including his famous brace against Spain in the reverse fixture. Playing a more attacking role is clearly suiting the Man United man and yet he’s still 2.63 to have a shot on target and 1.30 to have at least a single shot – he has done both in four of five qualifying matches.  

All action McGinn proving himself for Scotland 

Want a player that isn’t afraid to have a pop at goal? Want that player to draw fouls and be committed in the challenge? Want that player to play anywhere across midfield to do a job for your team? John McGinn is your man. The Aston Villa midfielder has found a consistent role alongside Scott McTominay behind the main striker for Scotland and is enjoying the freedom – he has had a shot in all five qualifying matches and two or more (1.62) in four of those. He has also committed ten fouls and drawn 11 – he should have a cracking battle in Spain.  

Aggressive Porteous loves a chat with the ref 

Ryan Porteous’ role for both Watford and Scotland is to be an aggressor, somebody who steps out of defence to challenge or commit opponents. He has committed eight fouls in five qualifying matches, committing two or more in two of those. He has also drawn a foul in four of them, including drawing three last time out against Spain – he clearly riled somebody up the wrong way.  

SPAIN VS SCOTLAND Matchups to Watch

Mikel Merino vs John McGinn 

A clash between two players who commit and draw fouls in equal measure like few others. Merino has committed four fouls and drawn five in qualifying so far in 2.9 90s. It’s similar to a club-level approach that has seen him commit 3.39 fouls and draw 3.05 per game this season. That’s nothing new – the fewest fouls per 90 committed over the last five seasons is 1.87 while he has drawn two or more fouls per 90 in three of the last four. McGinn, meanwhile, is into double figures for fouls committed and drawn during qualifying, has drawn a minimum of 2.08 per 90 over the last five seasons and commits comfortably more than a foul per match.  

Gavi vs Scott McTominay 

The other midfield duel will see Scott McTominay come up against Barcelona sensation Gavi. McTominay is known as a powerful, tenacious midfielder and the numbers back that up, committing a foul in all four qualification starts and averaging 1.83 per 90 at a minimum over recent seasons at Man United. Gavi, meanwhile, has been involved in seven fouls during qualifying and has committed and drawn over a combined five fouls per 90 this season at Barcelona.  

Ferran Torres vs Ryan Porteous 

As noted above, Ryan Porteous is an aggressive defender who likes to play on the front foot and he will want to get the better of whatever duel he is tasked with. That is likely to be Barcelona forward Ferran Torres coming in from the left-hand side to face him. Torres has been fouled in his last seven starts for Spain and averaged 1.61 fouls drawn per 90 last season.  

Spain vs Scotland Bet Builder Tips

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Spain vs Scotland

Calendar 12th October
Football icon kick off 19:45
Football icon Over 1.5 Scotland cards
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Scotland have picked up two or more cards in four of their five qualifying matches.

Spain have drawn two or more cards in three of their four qualifying matches.

Serdar Gozubuyuk has dished out four or more yellow cards in eight of his last nine matches.

Football icon Scott McTominay 1+ shots
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McTominay is being priced up like a more defensive midfielder rather than the attacking role he plays for Scotland.

McTominay has scored six goals in qualifying.

McTominay has managed two or more shots in four of his five qualifying matches.

Football icon Ryan Porteous 1+ fouls
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Porteous has committed a foul in all five qualifying matches.

Porteous has committed a foul in ten of 12 matches in all competitions this season.

Football icon John McGinn 2+ fouls
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McGinn has committed two or more fouls in three of five qualifying matches.

McGinn is playing against a Spain side containing two midfielders averaging over two fouls drawn per 90 in all competitions this season.

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