Stoke host Brighton with a place in the Quarter finals of the FA Cup awaiting the winner. It’s been a fantastic campaign for the South Coast outfit and manager Roberto De Zerbi has had a seamless transition from former manager Graham Potter. Stoke are down as low as 17th in the Championship table but have a 9 point cushion to the relegation zone. This FA Cup is arguably the priority for both teams right now.
You know the drill by now. I’ve put together a Stats Pack for tonight’s FA Cup clash for anybody looking to put together a bet builder. Everything you need to get the most out of the relevant markets can be found below, and whilst you’re at it, why not check out my Stats Pack Guide to increase your chances of a winning bet builder.
Predicted Lineups
Stoke have Nick Powell and Axel Tuanzebe ruled out long term. Left wing back Josh Tymon made a return from injury vs Millwall at the weekend and played 21 mins. He could be in contention to make a return to the starting XI, but it will depend on his fitness and also the tactics for this fixture.
Manager Alex Neil has been switching between a 4-2-3-1 or a 3-5-2 formation so there is uncertainty how Stoke will approach the game.
Brighton have long term injuries to both Lallana and Moder. Danny Welbeck has an ankle problem so might not feature. Left back Pervis Estupinian is a doubt with a thigh injury which forced him off in their most recent Premier League match vs Fulham. At best he will probably be on the bench.
Team Stats
Stoke average 1.15 goals per game and 1.21 against. They have significantly underachieved in front of goal compared to their xG of 1.63. Stoke do fire nearly 13 shots in each fixture with 4.15 SOT. The Potters have done well to only face an average of 10.68 shots per 90 mins which has definitely helped their defensive statistics.
Corners have been noticeably high at both ends in Stoke games. They average 5.61 themselves and 5.21 against. Cards have also been high with Alex Neil’s men managing to draw 2.44 from their opponents this season. Stoke themselves average close to 2 cards per match.
Brighton average 1.77 goals per game and 1.32 against. These numbers correlate very closely to their xG and xGA metrics. The Seagulls only average 9.27 shots against per game and 3 SOT which has massively aided their cause.
It is noticeable how many corners Brighton have obtained per match (6.23). They have only conceded 3.68 in each fixture which is a significant difference in numbers. De Zerbi’s men have been well disciplined this season only racking up 1.41 cards in each game but managed to draw 2.55 from their opponents.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Of the likely starters, winger duo Celina and Jacob Brown average 3.16 and 2.28 shots per 90 mins respectively. Top scorer Lewis Baker fires in close to a couple of shots with a 0.76 SOT rate. Striker Dwight Gayle is perhaps the most likely to rack up a few shots playing upfront, and his personal average is 1.79 per 90 mins.
Striker Evan Ferguson averages a huge 3.53 shots per 90 mins with a very impressive 2.06 SOT. He will lead the line and is a huge candidate in these markets and also to score.
Mitoma is one of the most talked about players this season but is fairly selective with his shots, averaging just 1.68 shots per 90 mins and roughly one SOT. Both Solly March and Sarmiento are two others to look at in this market.
Player Goals and Assists
Midfielder Lewis Baker is top of the scoring charts for Stoke with 7 goals. He also leads them for assists with 5. Striker Tyrese Campbell has 5 goals and 3 assists but might be left out of the XI at the expense of Gayle here. Winger Jacob Brown has five goals but the rest of the Stoke scoring charts are fairly bleak. This is not a high scoring team.
Pascal Groß leads Brighton for goalscoring, netting 6 times, and he’s also supplied 3 assists this season. Solly March has been a dual threat with 5 goals and 4 assists. Japanese star Kaoru Mitoma has found the net five times and he also scored vs Liverpool in the previous round. Striker Evan Ferguson is one to watch with 3 goals and 2 assists from just 7 appearances.
Player passes
Stoke average 51% possession but they are unlikely to have more than 40% of the ball in this game. A trio of players in defence Jagielka, Wilmot and Fox all average over 50 passes per 90 mins but this is the type of fixture where they might look for more direct passes.
Brighton average nearly 60% possession and that figure could rise even more in a fixture like this one. The centre back duo of Dunk and Webster average 79.4 and 69.5 passes per 90 mins respectively and are the most likely to rack up the numbers here.
Arsenal transfer target Caicedo is another to watch out for with passing numbers because he could see a lot of the ball in midfield.
Stoke City Cards
Right winger Jacob Brown averages 1.61 fouls per 90 mins and has picked up 6 cards. The midfield duo of Baker and Laurent are also worth watching for cards and fouls, especially Laurent as he has an average foul rate of over 2 per 90 mins.
Tariq Lamptey is likely to be deployed at left back here, and dribbles nearly 6 times per 90 mins and is fouled 2.86 times. He is going to cause all sorts of problems on that left hand side for both Brown and Sterling.
Two other elusive players to watch out for in this match are Sarmiento and March. Both also have high dribbling rates and March especially could be a big problem for Stoke left back Morgan Fox.
Match-Ups to watch
Jacob Brown vs Tariq Lamptey
Josh Laurent vs Jeremy Sarmiento
Morgan Fox vs Solly March
Brighton Cards
The Seagulls are generally a clean team, but midfield enforcer Moises Caicedo stands out as a key man to watch in this category. He averages 2.13 fouls per 90 mins and obtained 6 cards. He might have to do a job on key Stoke man Lewis Baker.
The next highest foul average is from right winger Solly March who will press from the front and likely give away a couple of cheap free kicks.
Right winger Jacob Brown is fouled roughly twice per 90 mins and could be a problematic matchup for whoever plays left back for Brighton, be it Lamptey or Estupinian. On the other wing Celina averages a high 4.21 dribbles per 90 mins and could also cause trouble if he gets enough of the ball.
Match-Ups to watch
Moises Caicedo vs Lewis Baker
Tariq Lamptey vs Jacob Brown
Joel Veltman vs Bersant Celina
My Bet Builder picks of the pack
A proper FA Cup tie here, and there’s plenty of selections worth looking at. I’ve put together my bet builder picks below if you’re interested.
Stoke City vs Brighton
28th February
kick off 19:15
