The first meeting between the two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage. Now the Stadium of Light hosts the replay, and the prize is a last 16 tie against Leeds United. Both sides are sitting comfortably in midtable in their respective leagues and have been enjoying decent seasons.
I’ve put together a Stats Pack for tonight’s FA Cup clash, and you’ll be able to find everything you need for your bet builder this evening. Make sure to use my Stats Pack Guide to increase your chances of success.
Top scorer Ross Stewart has been ruled out for the rest of the season due an achilles injury which is obviously a major blow. Sunderland acquired Joe Gelhardt on loan from Leeds, but he is cup-tied for this game so won’t be able to feature either.
Quite who Sunderland start upfront remains to be seen, they might have to play in a strikerless formation. Alex Pritchard came off the bench at the weekend following a medium-term injury, so could be a candidate to feature. Defender Luke O’Nien is available again after a three match ban.
The Fulham lineup is difficult to predict. In the first meeting, manager Marco Silva made seven changes to the team. He revealed little and kept his cards close to his chest in the pre-game press conference. Silva, who is also serving a touchline ban for this game is more likely to field a stronger XI here though.
Despite that, backup keeper Rodak should get the gloves and veteran defender Tim Ream will probably be given a rest from central defence.
Sunderland average 1.45 goals per game and 1.14 against. They have been overachieving defensively a bit considering their xGA is 1.46. It is noticeable that the Black Cats have faced more shots against on average (12.60) than shots for themselves (11.70). Their record of 3.72 SOT per game isn’t too bad.
The Black Cats have conceded a lot of corners this season at 5.62 per game. They have only obtained 4.28 in each fixture. Cards have been regularly flowing in Sunderland games. The Wearside outfit average 2.45 in each game with their opponents picking up 2.48.
Fulham also average 1.45 goals per game but at the other end have been leakier, conceding 1.66. Their xG and xGA numbers correlate quite closely to their actual metrics. One thing that is very noticeable is how many shots and SOT they’ve faced this season. The opposition have on average been firing 5.09 SOT and 13.30 shots which is concerning.
Corners have been commonplace in Fulham games. They average nearly 5 corners themselves in each match whilst their opponents have racked up 5.55 in each fixture. The Cottagers have been a dirty team and racked up 2.55 cards per game, but they’ve also drawn nearly 2 cards from their opposition on average.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Only one player averages over 2 shots per 90 mins for Sunderland and that is Amad Diallo. Not a single player on this list has averaged one or more SOT per 90 mins which is rather concerning.
The trio of Roberts, Clarke and Pritchard are worth considering in the shot market. Neither are very accurate but might be willing to fire in some attempts to be an FA Cup hero.
Mitrovic dominates this category averaging a whopping 4.01 shots per 90 mins. He has scored plenty of goals, but his accuracy rate isn’t great with only 1.34 SOT. Dan James averages 2.50 shots per 90 mins but at a poor 20% accuracy rate.
No other Fulham player averages more than 1.67 shots per game and everyone else on this list average less than one SOT per 90 mins. The trio of Willian, Pereira and Vinicius could be worth keeping an eye on to try their luck from distance.
Player Goals and Assists
Top scorer and 11 goal man Ross Stewart is ruled out injured. Amad Diallo is the remaining top scorer for the Mackems with 7 goals.
Jack Clarke has racked up four goals and is also the leading assister for Sunderland with six. Patrick Roberts has four assists and weighed in with three goals. Those are the main players to focus on in the goalscorer markets for this match.
There is only one man to start with and that’s leading marksman Alexander Mitrovic, netting 11 goals for Fulham. He is the standout player and will of course be on penalty taking duties.
The next highest scorer for the West Londoners is Bobby Reid with four, followed by Palhinha with three. The player who leads Fulham for assists is Brazilian technician Andreas Pereira with five. Former Chelsea man Willian has two goals and two assists.
Sunderland have averaged 52% possession this season, but it is worth noting that in the first meeting vs Fulham they only had 31% of the ball. Luke O’Nien averages 56.5 passes per 90 mins but nobody else ranks over the 50 passes mark, nor is likely to in a match like this.
The likes of Batth, Hume and Diallo should all threaten going over the 30 attempted passes mark but do not expect too much facing Premier League opposition.
Fulham only average 46% possession but now facing Championship opponents that figure should rise considerably, even if they are away from home. At Craven Cottage in the first matchup, they racked up an impressive 69% of the ball and will likely hover around the 60% mark or more in this replay.
Players to watch out for in the passing markets are centre backs Diop and Adarabioyo, along with midfielder Tom Cairney.
Both centre backs Batth and Hume could be candidates for fouls and cards facing this Fulham attack force. Luke O’Nien is another worth considering if he is reinstated to the lineup. Should Mitrovic start then he will cause any centre backs serious problems.
Elsewhere, winger Jack Clarke averages 1.48 fouls per 90 mins and obtained 6 cards. He will press from the front and probably give away a few cheap free kicks.
Alexander Mitrovic is a powerful beast of a striker and can be very difficult to bring down. It is no surprise to see him get fouled on average 1.74 times per 90 mins.
Right back Kenny Tete put in a masterful display vs Chelsea last Friday night and gets fouled on average 1.56 times. He will have an obvious matchup with Jack Clarke here and the young Sunderland winger could get frustrated.
Midfielder Tom Cairney gets fouled 1.56 times per 90 mins and will be engaging with the likes of Michut and Neil in the central areas.
Match-Ups to watch
Jack Clarke vs Kenny Tete
Batth & Hume vs Alexander Mitrovic
Edouard Michut & Daniel Neil vs Tom Cairney
This Fulham team are no strangers to picking up cards. Palhinha leads them with 8 cards in 21 appearances, but the trio of Bobby Reid, Kenny Tete and Andrea Pereira aren’t far behind.
Striker Alexander Mitrovic likes to put himself about a bit as well and sometimes gets too extreme physically. The lethal hitman actually averages the most Fulham fouls per 90 mins on this list (1.51) and will happy give away some cheap free kicks in order to lay down a marker.
Jack Clarke averages 4.65 dribbles per 90 mins and will be going up against Kenny Tete here. Clarke is fouled on average 2.03 times per 90 mins.
Another to keep an eye on is attacking midfielder Amad Diallo who also has a high dribbling rate. It will be up to João Palhinha to keep an eye on him.
Match-Ups to watch
Kenny Tete vs Jack Clarke
João Palhinha vs Amad Diallo
Alexander Mitrovic vs Danny Batth & Trai Hume
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
Last month’s FA Cup tie was certainly an entertaining one, and with Fulham slated to make multiple changes, this one could well be the same. I’ve picked out some of the best value bet builder selections based on the stats below which come in at 4/1.
Sunderland vs Fulham
Amad Diallo averages 2.17 shots P/90. He managed 5 in the reverse fixture.
Fulham concede 13.30 shots P/90.
Sunderland average 2.45 card for P/90, and 2.48 cards against P/90.
Fulham average 2.55 cards for P/90, and 1.91 cards against P/90.
There were 4 cards in the reverse fixture.
Fulham average 4.82 corners P/90 and managed 6 in the first fixture.
Sunderland concede 5.62 corners P/90.
Fulham average 3.82 shots on target P/90, and mustered 12 when the two last met.
Sunderland concede 3.45 shots on target P/90.