The Premier League’s double-derby weekend continues today when North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal collide in what promises to be a blood-and-thunder clash in the capital.
Arsenal have lost each of their last three visits to play Tottenham on their own patch, however, Spurs’ performances have failed to convince this season under Antonio Conte, and though they would relish knocking the Gunners title tilt off track, Mikel Arteta’s league leaders are priced as favourites for a reason.
Below, you can dive straight into my stats pack for the North London Derby, which contains info on bundles of different metrics from Tottenham and Arsenal’s Premier League campaigns to date. Hopefully, the figures presented down the page can aid your pursuit of winning bet builders today. Make sure to read my Stats Pack Guide if you need an extra helping hand.
Predicted Lineups
Dejan Kulusevski returned to full training this week and the Swedish winger could claim a starting berth ahead of Bryan Gil today. Rodrigo Bentancur is still rated as doubtful, though Yves Bissouma could replace him in midfield if required.
Brazilian pair Richarlison and Lucas Moura are closing in on a comeback for Spurs, however, neither attacker is expected to be involved this afternoon. Cristian Romero, Eric Dier and Clement Lenglet should form a central defensive trio at the back.
Gabriel Jesus and Reiss Nelson remain sidelined for Arsenal, though Emile Smith-Rowe made a welcome return from a lengthy spell out when he came off the bench against Oxford in the FA Cup on Monday.
Mikel Arteta chose to rest Ben White, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Granit Xhaka, Ben White, Martin Odegaard and Thomas Partey in that tie at The Kassam Stadium, though all of Arsenal’s big-hitters should be restored to the XI today.
Team Stats
In many ways, Tottenham’s 4-0 win at Crystal Palace in their last Premier League assignment provided a perfect snapshot of their campaign to date. Spurs had fewer shots than the Eagles at Selhurst Park but still managed to net four times from an xG of just 1.67.
Tottenham have been overperforming both their xG for and against by significant margins in 2022/23, while just four clubs in the division have been conceding more shots per 90.
Spurs’ fixtures have also featured plenty of cards and today’s referee Craig Pawson should have quite the workload to get through. The last two feisty encounters between Tottenham and Arsenal produced 11 cards.
As you’d expect from the division’s pace-setters, Arsenal show up well across a number of underlying stats this season, from both an offensive and defensive perspective.
The Gunners’ sparkling attacking football understandably writes the most headlines, but only Newcastle have been conceding fewer goals, while champions Man City are the only outfit carrying a lower xG against per 90 than Mikel Arteta’s robust Arsenal defence.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Without the sprinkling of stardust that Harry Kane and Heung-min Son provide, Antonio Conte’s Tottenham team would be in a sorry state and the team’s most potent attackers racked up another six attempts between them at Palace last weekend.
Unsurprisingly, Kane and Son rank in positions one and two at Spurs for both shooting metrics, though Kane represents the best value in the market at 6/5 to lodge at least two shots on target today.
Kane has locked at least two accurate attempts in three of his last four Premier League appearances and the 29-year-old managed another two when Spurs lost 3-1 at Arsenal back in October.
Every member of Arsenal’s formidable front four of Saka, Odegaard, Martinelli and Nketiah come equipped with match-turning potential, and that dynamic quartet racked up ten attempts between them in the Gunners’ draw with Newcastle last week.
Martinelli (4/7), Saka (4/7) and Odegaard (4/6) all managed to get an attempt on target when the Gunners brushed Tottenham aside in October, and all three are priced relatively evenly – and generously – to repeat the trick this afternoon.
Player Goals and Assists
Harry Kane seems to have found another gear since the World Cup and the 29-year-old has scored four times in as many games for Spurs since the end of December.
Kane, of course, is the highest goalscorer in North London derby history and he seems too good to ignore at even money to either score or assist again later on.
His partner in crime, Heung-min Son, also has a strong derby record to draw confidence from. The 30-year-old has scored in four of Spurs’ last six competitive tussles with Arsenal and the South Korean can be backed at 5/2 to net anytime today.
Arsenal failed to score in a Premier League fixture for the first time this season when they were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw by Newcastle last weekend, though I don’t expect the Gunners to misfire again today.
With four goals in his last four runouts and two Premier League strikes in his last three starts in the division, Eddie Nketiah (9/5) has been making the most of his chance to spearhead to Arsenal attack in the injured Gabriel Jesus’s absence. The 23-year-old is playing with a huge amount of confidence and he could make another splash today.
Elsewhere, Tottenham have a weak point at right wing-back, where Matt Doherty doesn’t always defend with authority, and the quicksilver Gabriel Martinelli (12/5 to score anytime) could have gaps to exploit.
Player passes
Tottenham had just 35.3% of the ball when they lost at Arsenal in October, though Head Coach Antonio Conte will be at ease with his team ceding possession in a counter-attacking set-up again today.
As a consequence, don’t expect many (if any) Spurs players to clock big numbers in the passing department. Eric Dier topped the passing poles for Tottenham against Arsenal in October with a modest 40, and with the market laden with unkind odds for the hosts, it might be best to keep your powder dry here.
Mikel Arteta likes his Arsenal team to work the ball forward from the back through short, snappy passes and centre-half William Saliba and midfield mainstay Thomas Partey are usually the conduits through which the Gunners’ play flows.
Saliba played more passes (70) than any other player on the pitch in the last North London Derby in October, while the influential Partey racked up 90 or more passes in each of his last two league starts. At 4/6 and 8/5 respectively to breach the 70-pass barrier today, Saliba and Partey should feature in plenty of bet builders.
Tottenham Hotspur Cards
Tottenham’s mettle should be severely tested on the flanks today where Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli will provide plenty of menace.
Ivan Perisic has already been carded twice for Spurs this term and the veteran Croatian won’t relish facing Saka’s combination of pace and trickery.
As the furthest right member of Tottenham’s central defensive trio, Cristian Romero (two cards, 1.2 fouls per game) should have some sketchy one-on-one situations to negotiate against Martinelli when the latter cuts in from the flank.
The aggressive Harry Kane meanwhile, could attach himself to Arsenal’s chief playmaker from the back, William Saliba.
Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka could have Cristiano Romero (13/10 to be shown a card) and Ivan Perisic (16/5) on toast if they can isolate their markers today and there is buckets of card-producing potential in both of those head-to-heads.
William Saliba will be engaged in a battle from the first whistle when he faces wily campaigner Harry Kane (9/2). England international Kane has lost his squeaky-clean image over the past year or so, as evidenced by his ever-increasing collection of cautions.
Match-Ups to watch
Ivan Perisic vs Bukayo Saka
Harry Kane vs William Saliba
Cristian Romero vs Gabriel Martinelli
Arsenal Cards
Martin Odegaard was shown yellow when Arsenal last visited the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in May last year, while William Saliba was booked when the teams locked horns in October.
That suggests both players are capable of losing their cool in the white-hot atmosphere of a derby. Odegaard and Saliba have collected a notable seven bookings between them this term, and they might be worth considering as card candidates for your coupon today.
Elsewhere, Granit Xhaka’s hair-trigger temper should put him on your radar this afternoon. The Swiss midfielder has cooled his jets somewhat this term, amassing just three cards in the Premier League since August, but Xhaka’s reactions can be explosive when pressured.
Heung-min Son’s direct running from out to in should put him on a flight path towards William Saliba today and sparks could fly when they collide.
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has been Tottenham’s most-fouled midfielder this season (14) and the Dane could have his shinpads tested by Martin Odegaard.
Harry Kane knows how volatile a character Granit Xhaka can be and the Tottenham talisman will be aiming to push the Arsenal midfielder’s buttons when he drops deep to hunt for possession.
Match-Ups to watch
William Saliba vs Heung-min Son
Martin Odegaard vs Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Granit Xhaka vs Harry Kane
