North London meets East London here as two old rivals go head to head. Spurs had a very disappointing defeat 1-4 away to Leicester last week, whilst West Ham have steadied the ship somewhat by drawing consecutive matches vs Newcastle and Chelsea. Neither side are currently meeting seasonal objectives though and 3 points will be much desired by both teams.
The data below includes a breakdown of both teams’ goals, shots, corners and cards, and then delves into the top players for the same stats plus passing and fouls. Use my Stats Pack Guide alongside the data below and you’ll no doubt increase your chances of a bet builder winner.
Spurs have problematic injuries in midfield with both Bentacur and Bissouma ruled out long term. They were forced to go with the duo of Skipp and Sarr away vs AC Milan in the Champions League midweek. Both actually played quite well but Pierre Emile Hojbjerg will surely come back into the team here after his suspension. First choice keeper Hugo Lloris remains injured, so Fraser Forster gets the gloves.
David Moyes confirmed the absence of key midfielder Lucas Paqueta to injury. Centre back Nayef Aguerd hobbled off vs Chelsea last week and is doubtful to feature, although could play. Maxwell Cornet and Gianluca Scamacca are both still on the sidelines but might be close to a return in the forthcoming weeks.
Tottenham average 1.83 goals per game and 1.52 against. Their fixtures have been high scoring. Their xG and xGA numbers are also very high and they are not operating at a defensive level which is typical with an Antonio Conte side. Spurs have conceded a massive 14.22 shots per game which is simply too many. They have a good SOT conversion rate of 5.09 from 13.57 shots themselves.
Spurs average nearly 6 corners per match, and they concede 4.48. Cards have been high in their fixtures which isn’t surprising considering the manager. Tottenham have obtained 2.18 cards in each future, whilst their opponents have 2.30.
West Ham average 0.86 goals per game which is massively below their xG of 1.57. They have not been very proficient in front of goal. They average 1.23 goals against per game but their xGA is 1.48 so there is a slight overachievement defensively. The Hammers have been firing nearly 13.05 shots in each game and 11.45 against. One of their biggest issues finding the back of the net has only been 3.50 SOT. That figure needs to improve in the second half of the season.
Cards have been on the low side for West Ham. They only average 1.29 cards in each game which is surprisingly low for a David Moyes led side! The Hammers have drawn 1.71 cards per game from their opponents which is an average sort of mark. Corners also have middling numbers, obtaining 4.95 in each game and 4.86 against.
Player shots and shots on target
Harry Kane unsurprisingly leads Spurs with attempts at 3.55 per 90 mins. He has a strong accuracy ratio close to the 50% mark at 1.58 SOT. The trio of Son, Richarlison and Sessegnon all average two shots or more per 90 mins. Son is another who has decent accuracy and fires 1.30 SOT. Both Kulusevski and Emerson are usually good for at least one shot in each match, but neither are especially accurate.
Three players on this list average over two shots per 90 mins, but West Ham have generally been very wasteful. Said Benrahma hits the target roughly once every three attempts. Both Antonio and Bowen also average more than two shots per 90 mins. Bowen has been in better form recently but only averages 0.46 SOT which is a disappointing rate.
Player goals and assists
Harry Kane leads the way for the North London outfit with 17 goals. He only has one assist which is a little bit surprising. Son has four goals and three assists. The leading assist provider for Spurs on this list is Kulusevski with five.
Jarrod Bowen leads West Ham in the goalscoring charts but has only netted four times. Benrahma has scored three times and Antonio twice. Nobody stands out in the assist market either with Antonio and the injured Lucas Paqueta each bagging two. It has been a very poor year for West Ham offensively which these statistics highlight.
Tottenham only average 51% possession and can be really difficult to predict with the ball. The expectation is that they should have a strong share of possession in this game, but you wouldn’t say that with too much certainty. Three players all average over 60 passes per 90 mins for Spurs, with centre back Eric Dier the obvious candidate to handle the ball most.
David Moyes’ men only average 45% possession and are known for being a counter-attacking team under his command. Declan Rice should last the full match and has amassed 60.2 passes per 90 mins. Everything they do in the middle of the park goes through him. Both Cresswell and Johnson average around 50 passes per 90 mins but aren’t expected to start here.
Now that Bentacur and Bissouma are injured the obvious candidate for cards is Argentinian defender Cristian Romero. He will have to handle Antonio and warmed up for this game with a cynical booking vs AC Milan. The likes of Sarr and Hojbjerg are going to be engaging in some tough midfield battles so must be watched here. Harry Kane is a very physical and clever player who regularly draws fouls from defenders or DMIDs. However, he is no saint himself and is probably good for committing at least one foul in this match, if not more.
Attackers Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen have been fouled roughly twice per 90 mins on average and are the two players most likely to cause Spurs problems. Both are known for trying a few dribbles, around 2.50 per 90 mins. Paqueta normally draws a few fouls in midfield so Rice and Soucek will now likely be targeted.
Matchups to watch
Cristian Romero vs Michail Antonio
Pape Sarr vs Declan Rice
Ivan Perisic vs Jarrod Bowen
West Ham Cards
The Hammers have been a surprisingly clean team this season. Thilo Kehrer has four cards and produces 1.33 fouls per 90 mins. He is often the defensive enforcer and could target Kane. Elsewhere, both Coufal and Rice could be candidates for fouls, but unless West Ham start to play dirtier then it might be best to avoid them in the cards markets.
Richarlison is unlikely to start but when on the field he is likely to draw fouls and potentially cards. He is a skilful player and also the type who can wind up opponents with his gimmicks and tricks. Sarr should keep his place in midfield and is fouled on average 2 times per 90 mins. Upfront and in attack both Harry Kane and Son are obvious candidates to cause West Ham problems. Right wing back Emerson Royal is fouled 1.80 times per 90 mins and his matchup with Emerson Palmieri should be a good one.
Matchups to watch
Thilo Kehrer vs Harry Kane
Declan Rice vs Pape Sarr
Emerson Palmieri vs Emerson Royal
My bet builder picks of the pack
A tasty London Derby, and I’ve picked out some bet builder selections I liked the look of below, with the help of my stats pack of course.
Tottenham vs West Ham
Harry Kane has 18 goal contributions in 23 games.
In the corresponding fixture last season at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, Kane assisted Son twice.
Kane has the best record of any player in London derbies, breaking Thierry Henry’s 44 goal record in October.
He has scored another 4 London derbies since then.
Tottenham average 2.18 cards in their direction, while West Ham opposition average 1.71.
Michail Antonio and Jarrod Bowen average almost 2 fouls a piece p/90.
Up against the likes of Cristian Romero who has received 8 bookings in 14 games.
With results not going in their favour and Conte returning to the touchline, Tottenham will be determined to turn their fortunes around and this may ultimately lead to some tactical fouls.
Michael Oliver averages 3.41 cards per game.
Tottenham average 5.87 corners per game, while West Ham concede 4.86 per game.
At home, the Spurs average increases to 6.73, while on the Hammers travels they concede an average of 5.82.
With tricky wingers Son and Kulusevski cutting inside, this allows Perisic and Porro to make overlapping runs to the by line, undoubtedly leading to corners.
Declan Rice averages 0.77 fouls p/90 and has received 3 bookings this season.
But with the likes of Pape Matar Sarr in midfield averages 2.00 fouls drawn from 2.00 dribbles p/90, he has an interesting battle on his hands.
Also, with Kane dropping in deep, his fellow countryman is fouled 1.40 times p/90.
Declan Rice is the real midfield enforcer and will find himself covering most of the pitch, and no doubt will get stuck into a few challenges.