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Ukraine vs Belgium
26th June
kick off 17:00 Belgium to win 
Belgium have generated 3.5 xG from their two group games so far, and have had more shots on target per game than any side at the Euros.
Ukraine were comfortably beaten by Romania, creating 0 big chances and looked unconvincing against Slovakia, while Belgium have created 7 big chances across their two games so far.
Ukraine GK to make 4+ saves Ukraine’s GK made 4 saves in the game against Slovakia, and they have conceded 5 shots on target in both group games so far, against much weaker opponents.
Belgium have hit 7 shots on target per game on average, and have forced 4 and 7 saves respectively from their 2 group games to date.
Romelu Lukaku to have 2+ shots on target Lukaku has averaged 2.30 shots on target per 90 from 3.70 shots on target per 90 across eight qualifiers and the two games at the finals to date.
He has now had 2+ shots on target in 4 straight competitive internationals, and has hit this mark in 5 of his last 6.
Oleksandr Zinchenko to commit 1+ fouls Zinchenko has committed a foul in 4 of his last 5 competitive starts for Ukraine when playing in midfield.
He is up against Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, who have respectively won fouls in both group games (De Bruyne) and in five straight competitive starts for Belgium (Tielemans).
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Wednesday night sees Group E draw to a close, with everything on the line for all four teams, each sitting on three points.
It should be a dramatic couple of hours with the potential for things to shift dramatically as either of these two sides could end up as group winners, or out of the competition entirely.
You can check out our Stats Pack Guide to take advantage of the data in this article ahead of kick-off. The data in this Stats Pack comes from both sides’ opening two fixtures, so keep that in mind as you are using our graphics to craft your Bet Builders ahead of this matchup.
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Ukraine vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
Return of Mykolenko welcome for Rebrov
The injury to Vitaliy Mykolenko was unfortunate for Ukraine, forcing manager Sergiy Rebrov to remove Oleksandr Zinchenko from the midfield to play at left back, but the return of the Everton defender means Zinchenko can slot back into the middle, where he usually features for his country. That means Volodymyr Brazhko misses out, but the rest of the team is unchanged from the game against Slovakia, with Real Madrid’s Andriy Lunin remaining on the bench as Anatoliy Trubin is again preferred between the sticks.
One change expected from Domenico Tedesco
Rennes centre back Arthur Theate had to be withdrawn from Belgium’s 2-0 win over Romania but has overcome the knock and looks to be fit to start here. The only change from the side which beat Romania looks likely to come in the forward line, with Leandro Trossard preferred to Dodi Lukebakio, who was taken off early in the second half of his only tournament start to date. Axel Witsel and Thomas Meunier are still unable to feature here, though there is hope that Witsel may be fit enough to feature in the knockout stages.
Ukraine vs Belgium Team Stats
Likely to be a busy afternoon for Trubin
Belgium have had more shots on target per game than any side at this tournament, averaging exactly 7.0. Ukraine meanwhile have shipped five to much weaker opposition in both of their games so far, and saw Trubin make four saves in their game against Slovakia. More saves were possible in the game against Romania too, with one of the goals looking preventable and a few goal-bound attempts blocked just in front of a diving Andriy Lunin. Belgium meanwhile have seen the opposing goalkeeper make four and seven saves respectively in their two Group E fixtures. Backing Ukraine’s goalkeeper to make four or more saves at 1.91 looks to offer great value, while some extra security can be found by instead backing Trubin to make three or more at 1.36.
Belgium to win looks undervalued
Though they did fail to win their opening game, talks of a crisis for Belgium are somewhat overblown. Through the first two games of the tournament, only five sides have generated more xG than Belgium’s 3.5. Had Romelu Lukaku not been marginally offside or if the ball had not brushed against Lois Openda’s arm to see two goals disallowed in their opening game, they may well have been top of Group E with maximum points. Belgium have had more shots on target per game than any other side at this tournament, and with everything on the line, they should have enough to beat a Ukraine side that have looked fragile defensively. Backing Belgium to win at 1.65 looks a smart play here.
Ukraine vs Belgium Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Mykhailo Mudryk the best option for Ukraine
No Ukrainian player to play more than 90 minutes at these finals has averaged more shots per 90 than Mykhailo Mudryk. Of these, 1.05 per 90 have been shots on target, with Mudryk testing the goalkeeper at least once in both group games so far. His pace could be a real problem for Belgium’s defence, which is by far their biggest weakness. Mudryk has demonstrated he is not afraid to shoot with the high volume of attempts per game, and he looks by far the best option in this market for Ukraine. He can be backed to hit a shot on target at 2.0.
Impossible to ignore Romelu Lukaku
Though his misses have garnered the most attention at these finals so far, it should not be forgotten that Lukaku dominated the goalscoring charts in qualifying, bagging 14 goals in just eight games. The Roma striker has hit at least two shots on target in five of his last six competitive starts for his national side, including in both games in Group E so far. Lukaku has had eight shots, five of which were on target, and backing him here to keep his run of multiple shots on target going at 1.73 looks an excellent play.
Ukraine vs Belgium Goals and Assists Stats
HeorhiI Sudakov is worth considering for Ukraine
Ukraine’s main threat from midfield, Sudakov has not yet scored or assisted at these finals, but he did accumulate a goal and two assists through qualifying, with only Mykhailo Mudryk having more goal contributions. Sudakov has taken five shots at these finals, hitting the target once, but has also seen his passes lead to six shots across the two games, so the young Shakhtar Donetsk midfielder could be well placed for either a goal or an assist here, particularly with the pace of Mudryk and the finishing of Dovbyk around him. Sudakov is also likely to take penalties if Ukraine get one, which could allow him an easy route to a goal. He can be backed to score or assist at a generous 4.50.
Kevin De Bruyne is the obvious choice here
De Bruyne has been the standout player for Belgium at this tournament so far, scoring the goal to seal the win alongside creating three chances and having three shots on target against Romania. He also created four chances and was unlucky not to claim an assist against Slovakia. The Man City star is running out of time to achieve something with this generation of Belgian players and he will be desperate to avoid another group stage exit after the debacle at the 2022 World Cup, so we expect him to put on a show here. De Bruyne can be backed to score or assist at 1.91, a price which offers great value considering his performances to date at this tournament.
Ukraine Cards and Fouls Stats
Zinchenko worth a look for a foul here
Oleksandr Zinchenko has not committed a foul at the tournament yet, but this looks like it could change here. The Arsenal man has played both games thus far at left back but will be returned to his usual spot in midfield here. When playing in the middle, Zinchenko has committed fouls in four of his last five competitive starts for his nation. Furthermore, he will find himself up against Kevin De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans, who have won 2.00 and 0.88 fouls per 90 in the qualifiers and at these finals. De Bruyne has won a foul in both group games so far, while Tielemans has won a foul in all five of his starts in qualifying and at these finals so far. Zinchenko can be backed to commit a foul at 2.0 and looks to have been heavily undervalued.
Youri Tielemans a solid bet to win a foul
Aston Villa midfielder Tielemans picked up where he left off when returning to start in the game against Romania, winning a foul as he has done in each of his last five competitive starts for his nation. Tielemans has drawn 0.88 fouls per 90 across the qualifiers and at these finals to date, and finds himself with solid matchups here, up against Heorhii Sudakov, who have committed exactly 1.0 fouls per 90 across the qualifiers and the finals, fouling in eight of his last 10 competitive international matches, and Oleksandr Zinchenko, who has fouled in four of his last five competitive starts for Ukraine in midfield. Tielemans can be backed to win a foul at 1.36.
Belgium Cards and Fouls Stats
Jeremy Doku looks like an interesting option here
Doku has played a slightly unfamiliar wing-back role in the last outing against Romania, and also in a more traditional winger role in their opener against Slovakia. In both positions he has committed a foul, meaning the Man City man has now committed a foul in each of his last four competitive starts for his country. Up against Oleksandr Tymchyk and Andriy Yarmolenko here, Doku has solid matchups, with Yarmolenko winning a foul in each of his last four competitive starts for Ukraine, and Tymchyk doing so in three of his last four games for Ukraine, despite starting only two of these. Doku can be backed to commit a foul at 1.40 here.
Mykola Matviienko is an interesting option to win a foul
Shakhtar Donetsk centre-back Mykola Matviienko looks like a solid pick to win a foul, something he can be backed to do at 1.57. The 28-year-old defender has won a foul in five straight competitive starts for Ukraine, averaging 0.82 fouls won per 90 across his appearances in qualifying and at these finals. Matviienko has won three fouls in the first two games of this tournament and looks to have solid matchups here too, facing off against Romelu Lukaku, who has fouled in two of his last three competitive starts for Belgium in which he played over 45 minutes, and Kevin De Bruyne, who has fouled in both games at this tournament so far.
Ukraine vs Belgium Matchups to watch
Oleksandr Zinchenko vs Kevin De Bruyne
Heorhii Sudakov vs Youri Tielemans
Oleksandr Tymchyk vs Jeremy Doku
Mykola Matviienko vs Romelu Lukaku
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