Walsall vs Chesterfield Bet Builder Tips, Preview

Starting in a place where we had a winner in the first leg. I backed Jamie Jellis to make 2+ fouls at a price of 1.83. He’s the same price for two again here, but his mark for 1+ has jumped from 1.14 to 1.20, which is odd and something I’m happy to take advantage of in a bet builder.

I described Jellis as all action and a bundle of energy, and we saw that in leg one. He was buzzing around the midfield and attack all afternoon, constantly applying pressure and wrestling with players.

Chesterfield have to come out fighting here and again Jellis will be crucial. He has to stop Metcalfe from getting control of the play. Metcalfe has drawn an average of 1.89 fouls/90 this season, and was impeded on four separate occasions in Sunday’s meeting.

Walsall have a lead to defend and Chesterfield will dominate the ball. I expect plenty of fouls from the hosts.

As mentioned, Metcalfe was fouled four times in the first leg and has drawn 1.89 fouls/90 this season.

He’s a wonderful player. He’s so well rounded. A very good technician, but with the grit and fight to match anyone he comes up against.

Metcalfe has been brilliant in the run that Chesterfield went on in the lead up to the play-offs, and has really stepped up when The Spireites have had so many injuries to key players.

Walsall are all about battle and grit, and they really stuck it on Metcalfe in the first leg, and I see no reason why that won’t happen again here. In the midfield for Walsall, Jellis, Hall and Stirk all made two fouls. Alfie Change didn’t make one, but he actually averages the most at 2.00/90 albeit from limited minutes.

Metcalfe has been fouled two or more times in four of his last six, drawing three or more in three.

I think this is an error. The fact one foul is priced this generously, means the higher lines look huge. You can get 2+ fouls drawn at 2.88 and 3+ at 6.5. All three of those lines landed in the first leg as Mandeville was fouled FIVE times. More than anyone else on the pitch.

Mandeville has been a mainstay for Chesterfield this season, operating in numerous positions. He started as a ‘right back’ in the first meeting, but he ha slicense to play with some freedom, often inverting to his more traditional midfield position.

He saw plenty of the ball in Sunday’s game, taking it on down the line at any opportunity and trying to get the Walsall defence on the back-foot. He attempted more crosses in the first leg than he has in any game this season.

That inverting into the midfield sees him cross paths with Jellis, Stirk and Chang as previously discussed. His defensive responsibilities also saw him duelling with Jamille Matt, who committed five fouls in leg one and averages 2.55/90 this season.

Mandeville has been fouled 2+ times on 12 occasions this season. He played just two minutes in the league meeting between these two at the Bescott, and still managed to draw a foul.

With how I expect Walsall to approach this, this looks a very generous price.

Chesterfield struggled at times to break through a stubborn Walsall defence, but the most likely often looked to be Ryan Colcough. He was committing players and finding good pockets of space. He also hit the target early on, forcing a decent save from Simkin.

Colclough has averaged 0.84 SoT/90 this season, and has had one in three of his last four starts.

We could see Armando Dobra come back into the fold here, but I think Colcough would be very unlucky for that to be at his expense. More likely Dobra would move into a number ten position, and Chesterfield would sacrifice one of the deeper midfielders.

Again, game state is important here. Walsall rank as one of the lowest sides when it comes to average possession in League Two, and they’ll be content to let Chesterfield have it.

Chesterfield want the ball, they want to dominate and pick teams apart. Colclough also isn’t afraid to have a strike from the edge of the area, which I can see being an option if Walsall are to really drop in.

Walsall won’t have it all their own way and I imagine there will be some lengthy periods of discomfort for The Saddlers. Simkin was excellent in leg one, and I’m sure he’ll be tested again here, and I think Colclough is the pick of the bunch in terms of price.