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Watford vs Leeds
29th March
kick off 20:00 Leeds to Win
Leeds have won 12 of their 13 Championship games in 2024 so far.
They have won five of their last six away games, conceding fewer than 1 xG in five of those six and conceding just one goal.
Patrick Bamford to have 1+ shots on target Bamford has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 11 Leeds starts.
He averages 1.65 shots on target per 90 this season.
Wilfried Gnonto to score or assist Gnonto has six goal contributions in his last six league starts, five goals and one assist.
He has scored in each of his last two games for Leeds in the Championship.
James Morris to commit 1+ fouls Morris has committed 1.54 fouls per 90 this season, including at least 1 foul in 8 of his 10 league starts.
His matchup, Wilfred Gnonto draws 2.93 fouls per 90, the most of any Championship player with more than 800 minutes this season.
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In this article
Vicarage Road is the stage for the EFL’s closer on Good Friday, with Leeds the visitors to take on Watford in the late kick-off.
The Hornets are now headed up by Tom Cleverley on an interim basis until the end of the season, but the truth is that there is very little available to them at this late stage in the season. With just 24 points left up for grabs, they are nine clear of the drop, but a disappointing 13 points adrift of Norwich in sixth place.
If they might be on the beach, Leeds certainly are not. A minor blip as they drew 1-1 with Yorkshire rivals Huddersfield earlier in March has been swept aside with three straight wins, taking Daniel Farke’s side above Leicester to the top of the Championship, albeit only on goal difference.
They cannot take their foot off the gas at this stage, however, with third-placed Ipswich just one point behind the top two. The promotion race looks set to go down to the wire, but Leeds know the most important thing is to continue to pick up wins and continue to pile the pressure on their promotion rivals.
Cleverley has a 100% win record in place, but there are no tougher tests in this league at the minute than a visit from Leeds. Watford’s season may be all but over, but they could certainly have a say in the promotion race if they can get a result here.
This should be a cracking game of football featuring one of the most in-form sides in the country right now, and there are plenty of appealing betting angles begging to be combined into a Watford vs Leeds bet builder.
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Watford vs lEEDS predicted lineups
No changes expected from interim boss Cleverley
A winning start away at Birmingham means Tom Cleverley is likely to keep the faith in his players who delivered a 1-0 win at St Andrew’s before the international break. The Hornets did not pick up any injuries over the international break, with only Jeremy Ngakia (knee) on the treatment table. Despite the options available, we expect an unchanged XI for the hosts.
Two changes in the pipeline from Farke
Junior Firpo played in the early hours of Wednesday morning, featuring for the first time for the Dominican Republic as they were beaten soundly away to Peru. This short turnaround means he is unlikely to feature here, with Sam Byram likely to step in at left back. Farke may also make a change further up the pitch, with Georginio Rutter sitting this one out in favour of Joel Piroe in the number 10 role.
wATFORD vs lEEDS team stats
Watford hard to hold at Vicarage Road
After opening the season with two blanks in three games at home, Watford have since been on an impressive goalscoring run, having scored in 15 of their last 16 home games in the Championship. It is also Tom Cleverley’s first home game as the manager, so the new manager bounce may well be in full effect. Their defence is a concern, however, having conceded in 10 straight league games at home. Though Leeds are a tougher side to score against than most, backing both sides to score at 1.73 is certainly worth considering.
Leeds to secure the victory here
After a barren run of three straight away losses to close out 2024, Leeds have been on a tear recently, winning each of their seven home league games since the new year and winning five of their six away games. Leeds also held their opponents to less than 1 xG in 10 of these 13 games; they are currently offered at a very generous 1.50 to win, a price which is hard to turn down for a side that last tasted defeat in the Championship in December. Having won 12 and drawn one of their last 13 league games, we’re expecting Leeds to overcome the ‘new manager bounce’ and collect all three points here.
Watford VS Leeds SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET stats
Yaser Asprilla offers great value
Second amongst Watford players in shots on target per 90 at 1.04, Asprilla has been in great shooting form for the Hornets. In his last eight starts in the league, the Colombian winger has failed to have a shot on target just once, from four shots in the 1-1 draw with Swansea. This is a tough test but Asprilla can certainly pressurise Meslier if he gets the chance to shoot. He can be backed to have a shot on target at evens.
Bamford almost a banker
Since coming back into the Leeds side, Patrick Bamford has failed to have a shot on target just once in his last 11 games. He has had at least two shots on target in four of those 11 matches, and averages 1.65 shots on target from 3.56 shots per 90. The price is short, naturally so with a record like this, but at 1.25 there is still value to be found in backing Bamford to hit the target here. Those seeking higher odds may well choose to back him to have two or more shots on target at 2.30.
Watford VS Leeds GOALS AND ASSISTS stats
Dennis the menace for the visitors?
Emmanuel Dennis got the only goal of the game as Watford beat Birmingham last time out. Nobody in the squad could be considered to be in strong goalscoring form, but Dennis has three goals already for Watford, having played just 466 minutes (roughly five full games’ worth). Despite looking the most likely Watford scorer by a distance, Dennis is priced at 4.50 to score anytime, making him a potential longshot option for those looking to supercharge their bet builder.
Gnonto finally coming good for Leeds
After spending much of the season warming the bench, Wilfried Gnonto has started eight of Leeds’ last nine league games, and he has repaid the trust of Daniel Farke with a glut of goal contributions. The Italian winger has bagged five goals and an assist in his last six starts and has scored in each of his last two league games for the Yorkshire outfit. He can be backed to score or assist at 1.91, though with his goal contributions being heavily skewed in favour of scoring, backing him to get a goal anytime at 2.50 is also worth considering.
Watford CARDS AND FOULS stats
James Morris to struggle with Gnonto
Drawing more fouls than any other Leeds player by more than one foul per 90, Gnonto’s 2.93 fouls won per 90 shows just how tough of an opponent he can be for opposition full backs. James Morris is the latest to be faced with the Italian, and averaging 1.54 fouls per 90, it could be a tough afternoon for the Englishman. He has committed at least one foul in 8 of his 10 league starts for the Hornets, and despite being up against one of the league’s most-fouled players he still sits at 1.40 to commit a foul here.
Ethan Ampadu is surprisingly high on the list of most-fouled Leeds players, racking up 0.84 fouls won per 90, a very high rate for a centre back. The man closest to him for most of this game will be Dennis, the Nigerian striker is prone to fouling, committing a squad-high 2.12 fouls per 90. Backing Ampadu in the fouls won markets certainly offers value when up against a striker so unafraid to put a foot in, while Dennis may be an option to commit two or more fouls, having done so in three of his five Watford starts, and in both of the games in which he lasted the full 90 minutes.
Leeds CARDS AND FOULS stats
Summerville one to watch in the fouls market
Dutch forward Crysencio Summerville ranks fourth amongst Leeds players for fouls per 90, notching up 1.32. His opposite number today will be Watford right back Ryan Andrews. Andrews has won the second-most fouls per 90 of any Watford player, racking up an impressive 1.63. A run of eight straight games in which Leeds’ left-winger has committed at least one foul means that backing Summerville to commit a foul at 1.30 looks a great price; not least when considering his recent form and matchup.
Ryan Porteous sneaks into the top five most-fouled Watford players, winning 1.35 fouls per 90 from centre back. Bamford is expected to lead the line for Leeds, and he commits over a foul per 90, his seasonal average currently sits at 1.11. Bamford has committed a foul in three of his last four starts and can be backed to make it four in five here at 1.30, a solid price for a player averaging over a foul per 90 minutes.
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