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Coventry travel to the Hawthorns looking to bounce back from a disappointing 3-0 loss against Preston North End last Friday. They will be looking to regain some form to muster a push for the play-off places, currently finding themselves 4 points adrift.
The hosts sit firmly in the play-offs and will be aiming to solidify that position further with 3 points this evening. They will be confident coming into this one as the reverse fixture saw them run out 2-0 victors in at the CBS Arena back in October.
This all midlands affair looks to be a significant one as the race for the playoffs starts to heat up.
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West Brom vs Coventry predicted lineups
Jed Wallace to keep leading the line
Attackers Daryl Dike and Josh Maja are both on the sidelines and Brandon Thomas-Asante joins them on the treatment table. Jed Wallace should start upfront and the Baggies are set to lineup in a 4-2-3-1 system. This could be an opportunity for Nigerian defender Semi Ajayi to return to the XI in defence.
Sakamoto ruled out for the rest of the season
Coventry have been dealt a severe blow with the news that Japanese winger Tatsuhiro Sakamoto is ruled out for the entire season, with a rumoured back injury. The Sky Blues thankfully don’t have too many other concerns but replacing such a key player won’t be easy. Fabio Tavares is likely to come into the side although Callum O’Hare is another possibility. Coventry look set to match West Brom’s 4-2-3-1 system with no other surprises in-store.
West Brom vs Coventry team stats
West Brom defence is watertight
The home side have overachieved in front of goal and netted an average of 1.44 from an xG of 1.26. However, West Brom have a legitimately mean defence with an xGA of just 0.94. They are difficult to penetrate and limit their opponents really well. This is a defence that concedes less than three shots on target per game. Corners are high in Baggies fixtures at nearly 11 per game with cards relatively low.
Corners stand out for Coventry
Coventry’s xG and xGA metrics correlate very closely to their actual statistics. They are quite an average team in most areas although conceding less than four shots on target per game is fairly impressive. Coventry really rack up the corners at a healthy 6.59 per game. They concede plenty at the other end as well. Cards are low in their games with the Sky Blues, in particular, very well disciplined.
West Brom vs Coventry shots and shots on target stats
Hosts unlikely to fire in many shots
The Baggies are one of the lowest shooting teams in the division averaging just 11.62 attempts per game and a measly 3.24 on target. It might not be the wisest option to go searching in these markets. Unsurprisingly, not a single player of significant minutes averages anywhere close to one shot on target per game. The likes of Jed Wallace or Grady Diangana would be the most obvious choice at 1.67 and 1.83 respectively to hit the target at least once. Both are probably best looked at in the shots market instead.
Simms and Wright accuracy stands out
It could be a tricky match for Coventry to impose themselves offensively. They do have a quartet of players who all average over two shots per 90 minutes though, with Ellis Simms and Haji Wright standing out. Both average at least one shot on target per game, so at odds of 1.91 and 1.83 respectively to hit the target at least once, they could be viable bet builder legs.
West Brom vs Coventry goals and assists stats
Wallace and Diangana carry threat
One weakness for West Brom is a clear standout scorer. Their rate of goals is acceptable but they don’t hit the target that often and lack a potent offensive threat. The main striker option for them upfront is set to be Jed Wallace, but he has more assists than goals this season. It would be wise to back him in the ‘to score or assist’ market and the same can be said for their top weapon Grady Diangana. Odds of 2.30 and 2.38 are available if you fancy either of those players to have a good game here.
Haji could be the Wright bet
Coventry will miss the creativity of Sakamoto but they possess a proven scorer upfront in Haji Wright. He leads their scoring charts with double-digit goals and he’s also weighed in with some assists. Wright can be backed at a very generous-looking 3.60 to score anytime which must merit consideration. If Coventry get on the scoresheet he’s surely the most likely. Ellis Sims can’t be ignored either at 3.75 anytime.
West Brom Cards and Fouls Stats
Beware of Baggies’ low foul count
West Brom are one of the cleanest teams in the Championship averaging the fourth-fewest cards per match of any team. They are one of just three sides yet to obtain a red card this year so have kept their discipline well. The Baggies average the fewest fouls per game of any team (8.10) and have played things very clean. The trio of Darnell Furlong, Okay Yokuslu and Cedric Kipre have the highest cards and fouls counts so may offer some potential. Each can be backed at minimum odds of 1.25 to have at least one foul, but this is a dangerous market to be touching West Brom players in.
Coventry are the fifth-most fouled team in the Championship at a rate of 11.40 per game. The loss of Sakamoto is a major blow though because he was one of their biggest foul magnets. Kasey Palmer and captain Liam Kelly could be the two players who are the trickiest to deal with. Both are likely to operate centrally so Yokuslu could be the player most at risk of getting caught out.
Coventry Cards and Fouls Stats
Kasey to keep fouling
Coventry rank in the bottom third for cards obtained in the Championship with 65 yellows and only two reds. They have generally kept things clean although they rank in the top ten for fouls committed (11.30). This suggests they get away with some cheap fouls higher up the pitch. No single player stands out in the cards market but two Joel Latibeaudiere and Kasey Palmer both average around two fouls per 90 minutes. The bookies are well clued up to their antics and to find value you need to take them to commit two or more fouls at 1.44 and 1.67 respectively.
West Brom rank in the bottom half for fouls drawn at an average of exactly 10 per game. The two trickiest players for Coventry to deal with are likely to be Grady Diangana and Tom Fellows. Diangana adds weight to the Kasey Palmer fouls argument whilst Coventry left back Jake Bidwell, who is 1.33 to commit a foul, must watch himself vs Fellows.
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