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Friday night sees fifth host fourth as the race for Championship promotion continues. West Bromwich Albion have proven tricky opposition to take on under former Leeds United coach Carlos Corberan, and he will be hoping to get one over his former employers after taking a point from Elland Road in the reverse fixture back in August in a game that contained a whopping nine yellow cards.
The Baggies have won seven of their 12 home matches, losing just twice, putting them in a good spot ahead of this encounter but Leeds have the third-best defensive record in the division and their goals total is the reason the two are presently separated by six points. It’s must-watch Championship viewing to kick off another football-filled weekend and we have all the numbers you need to start your weekend off with a winner. For extra information on the data and visuals below the Stats Pack Guide is a great resource for football bettors.
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WEST BROM VS LEEDS PREDICTED LINEUPS
Corberan appears to have found his preferred XI
Carlos Corberan has stuck fairly rigidly to the same XI where possible in recent weeks and he is unlikely to make changes ahead of one of their toughest home matches. It means that Kyle Bartley may retain his spot in the centre of defence having been given half an hour of rest, while match-winner Brandon Thomas-Asante should continue to lead the line.
Farke forced into goalkeeping change
Daniel Farke will be without goalkeeper Ilian Meslier after the French goalkeeper was sent off in their last-gasp defeat at Preston North End. Otherwise, change is unlikely with Farke generally happy to stick with the same XI where possible. That means Joel Piroe, refreshed after being replaced early due to the red card, will return fresh while Djed Spence should continue at left back.
WEST BROM VS LEEDS TEAM STATS
West Brom stronger at home
West Brom have been up and down on the road but their home form and performances have been excellent. They’ve managed at least 1 xG and 10 shots at goal in 10 of their 12 home matches while they’ve conceded fewer than 10 shots and four shots on target in nine of those. They have also drawn two or more cards on nine occasions at The Hawthorns. Keep an eye on corner kicks – they have won four or more on 11 occasions but conceded five or more in nine.
Leeds improving defensively on the road
Leeds haven’t been as ruthless away from home as they have at home, scoring zero or one on eight occasions. However, they are tightening up, conceding less than 1 xG away from home in six of their last seven. They aren’t without chances at goal either, managing four or more shots on target in over half of their away matches. Keep an eye on corners – Leeds have conceded four in every away match and 5 in 11.
WEST BROM VS LEEDS SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET stats
Thomas-Asante firing at home
West Brom are pretty inconsistent in their attacking form so it can make it difficult to predict who might trouble backup keeper Karl Darlow here. That is except for Brandon Thomas-Asante. The striker, bought from League Two side Salford City, has had a shot on target in seven of his last nine starts and each of his last six at home, having two or more shots in eight of his ten starts at The Hawthorns this season.
Goals threatened in Summerville
Crysencio Summerville probably shouldn’t be playing Championship football and yet he’s still available at 1.4 to have a shot on target despite doing so in seven of his last eight matches, averaging comfortably more than one per 90. That’s nearly double the odds of Joel Piroe, who has had a shot on target in eight of his last ten appearances.
WEST BROM VS LEEDS GOALS AND ASSISTS stats
Baggies have various options
The Baggies don’t have one out and out goalscorer and are pretty relaxed as far as who gets the goals, so long as they can take the lead and sit on it. It means that any of Brandon Thomas-Asante (9 goal contributions), Grady Diangana (8) or John Swift (7) could be worth backing at strong prices of 2.8, 3.1 and 3.3 respectively.
Leeds front four ruthless
Combined, Leeds’ front four have a combined total of 51 goal contributions this season. We’re not even in January yet. And they’re all available at odds better than evens to contribute again. Summerville is the big choice here. His odds are shorter than Georginio Rutter and Joel Piroe yet he has four and seven more contributions to his name and has contributed in 11 of Leeds’ last 14 matches.
WEST BROM CARDS AND FOULS stats
Baggies defence in trouble?
With the high press the big thing in the modern footballing world, defences are often protected. However, West Brom commit most of their fouls and collect the most yellows. Darnell Furlong is the biggest culprit, fouling in 17 of his 24 league matches and eight of his last ten. He’s 1.22 to commit a foul but 3.1 to collect a card. His central defenders are no better – they have a combined nine cards between them.
It’s problematic when you consider the opposition. Georginio Rutter has been fouled two or more times in 14 of his last 16 matches for Leeds, including a whopping seven times by Preston North End on Boxing Day, who also fouled Dan James five times. Crysencio Summerville has been fouled in eight of his last nine and twice or more in half of his appearances for Leeds this season.
LEEDS CARDS AND FOULS stats
Leeds commit from the front
Like being fouled, Leeds do most of their fouling from the front. That includes Georginio Rutter, who leads the line and the press sufficiently, committing a foul in six of his last seven matches, including two or more in four of those. Crysencio Summerville has also committed a foul in 16 of his 21 Championship appearances and behind him, Ethan Ampadu has fouled in 22 of 16 Leeds starts.
They have some fun match-ups. West Brom right back Darnell Furlong may have issues containing Summerville and may look to utilise his skill of drawing fouls instead, doing so in three-quarters of his league outings. Alex Mowatt, a former Leeds youngster, is pretty decent at it too, drawing a foul in 13 of 16 Championship starts.
WEST BROM VS LEEDS BET BUILDER TIPS AND PICKS OF THE PACK
We’ve put together a four-fold bet builder for this exciting Championship clash.
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West Brom vs Leeds
29th December
kick off 20:15 Over 3.5 West Brom Corners
West Brom have had 4 or more corner kicks in 11 of 12 home matches.
Leeds United have conceded 4 or more corner kicks in every league away match.
Brandon Thomas-Asante 1+ shots on targetBrandon Thomas-Asante has had a shot on target in his last 6 starts at home.
He has had 2 or more shots in 8 of 10 league starts.
Leeds have conceded 3 or more shots on target in 7 of 12 away matches.
Darnell Furlong to 1+ foulsFurlong has committed a foul in 17 of 24 matches and at least one in 8 of his last 10.
He’s up against Crysencio Summerville, who has been fouled more than twice per 90.
Ethan Ampadu 1+ foulsAmpadu has committed a foul in 22 of 26 appearances for Leeds.
Alex Mowatt has been fouled in 13 of his 16 Championship starts.
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