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West Ham vs Aston Villa
17th August
kick off 17:30
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Leg 1: Both Teams To score
Both teams will be looking to start the season on the front foot and it might be difficult for each defence to contain the other side. When you look at this match there are loads of strong attacking options all over the pitch and proven goalscorers who will be looking to hit the back of the net. Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey will spearhead Villa, who have been boosted by the control and playmaking abilities of Ross Barkley. West Ham have reinforced by adding Crysencio Summerville and Niclas Fullkrug, adding to the dangerous Jarod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta in attack.
Perhaps the biggest change for West Ham is in the managerial department where David Moyes has been replaced by former Wolves boss Julen Lopategui. This will bring about a completely different shift in tactics, system and possibly even formation. West Ham were too timid at times under Moyes, although did have a good defensive core under his stewardship.
10 of the last 15 Aston Villa games ended with both teams scoring in the Premier League last season and it’s not very often they failed to score against anyone. West Ham’s previous stats and results might need to be assessed with the change of manager, but 11 of their last 13 Premier League games also saw both sides finding the back of the net. This looks like a very solid pick at the London Stadium and the head-to-head record also supports it with eight of the last nine meetings seeing this selection land.
Leg 2: Ollie Watkins to score or assist
Aston Villa’s main man upfront is coming off a career-high season where he scored 19 goals but also supplied 13 assists. He has scored double-digit goals in all of his four seasons at Premier League level but last year the difference was adding the supply chain to his overall game. He only failed to score or assist in 15 out of 37 starts which is a very impressive statistic. Watkins is now a striker who can be backed with confidence in the ‘to score or assist’ market rather than simply to score anytime. He is a very clever player who is now happy to set up chances if required for the team.
The former Brentford man blanked at the London Stadium last season but scored and supplied an assist in the reverse fixture at Villa Park. He has a decent overall career record against the Hammers, netting four goals in 8 appearances against them.
In the xG charts he racked up the 6th highest amount last season (19.26) and the good thing was that he converted that into 19 goals. Watkins doesn’t waste too many chances and has become a confident and reliable finisher. He should be very confident after such a strong season and he also had a morale-boosting Euro 2024 for England when he was given minutes by Gareth Southgate. When Villa score there’s a high chance he’s involved in some capacity, so backing him to score or assist looks like a great option.
Leg 3: Jarrod Bowen to have two or more shots
West Ham have made some eye-catching signings in attack but Jarrod Bowen will still very much remain their main man. He will be keen to prove that point as well so it’s likely he will have a strong opening game at the London Stadium. Bowen enjoyed a strong 2023/24 campaign in which he scored 16 goals from an xG of 15.22. He gets into some excellent positions and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he got on the scoresheet this Sunday. Bowen also supplied six assists so it might be tempting to get involved in the ‘to score or assist’ market as well.
The safer play might be to take the former Hull man in the shots market though. He is a nice bet builder addition to have two or more shots which can bump up any overall price. Bowen averaged 1.91 shots per 90 minutes last season and it would be a surprise if he didn’t fire in at least a couple of attempts here. He could also be considered in the shots on target market. Last season he averaged 1.10 shots on target per 90 and is generally a reliable shooter for accuracy, with over 50% of his attempts on target. It’s going to be difficult for Villa to keep him out of the game so Bowen is very much a man to consider here.
LEG 4: Over 8.5 corners
Villa averaged exactly six corners per game last season and their flag kick numbers have significantly been on the rise ever since Unai Emery replaced Steven Gerrard as manager. The system they use is far more complimentary to winning corners and Villa have some of the best creative routines in the Premier League to exploit set pieces. New summer signing Ian Maatsen is pushing for a start at either left or right back and his marauding runs forward should only add to their corner-winning threat. At the other end of the field, Villa limited opponents to just 4.20 corners per game which was quite low, but they are now facing a different West Ham.
The home side have a change of manager and should be more on the front foot and definitely have more of the ball than they did under David Moyes. The Hammers still averaged 4.30 corners per game last season and conceded 5.70 per 90 minutes. It feels like the type of game which will be quite offensively orientated with several shots, which in turn might lead to corners. Taking the over 8.5 corner line is a nice bet builder addition and doesn’t require as many compared to the main 10.5 or 11.5 line.
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West Ham vs Aston vILLA Predicted Lineups
WEST haM VS aSTON vILLA Team Stats
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