West Ham face Liverpool at the London Stadium and both teams need the points for different reasons. David Moyes’ Hammers have found some form and won 3 of their last 5 Premier League games in addition to making the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League. They now have a nice 6 point cushion clear of the relegation zone. Liverpool must win all of their remaining games and hope other teams slip up if they are to qualify for the Champions League. Their attack has fired well of late scoring 9 goals in their last 2 matches.
You know the drill now. My stats packs provide the lowdown on cards to goals, shots to passes, and corners to fouls. Those stats from the two teams’ seasons so far help give you the basis for your bet builder picks. Use my Stats Pack Guide alongside and I have full faith you’ll be on to winners in no time.
West Ham have a fairly clean bill of health with only striker Gianluca Scamacca ruled out injured. It has been a good phase for the Hammers, so David Moyes is unlikely to make too many changes. West Ham should lineup in a 4-3-3 system with Michail Antonio keeping his place up front and flanked by Benrahma and Bowen. The back four has finally remained consistent after being plagued with injuries for most of the season.
Liverpool have been in good form recently so Jurgen Klopp will be reluctant to change too much. He has a lot more options available to him though now that their injury situation has improved significantly. Thiago could come into the side replacing Jones in midfield but it’s difficult to call. In attack, the likes of Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz will be pushing for a spot in the team, possibly at the expense of Gakpo. The form of Jota and Salah is excellent right now so they should be automatic starters.
West Ham average 1.06 goals per game and have underachieved significantly compared to their xG of 1.33. Their xGA of 1.28 is very close to their goals conceded mark. The Hammers average more shots (12.61) than their opponents (12.06) but have conceded a large proportion of shots on target. They have lacked accuracy themselves, testing the keeper just 3.39 times per game.
David Moyes’ men average 5.52 corners per game which is slightly on the high side. They’ve conceded 4.94 in each fixture and corners have overall been high in West Ham games. Cards have definitely been on the low side at just 2.76 on average. The Hammers themselves have been an extremely clean team and racked up just 1.26 cards per game.
Liverpool average 1.90 goals for and 1.23 against per game. Despite a poor season The Reds have actually overachieved defensively considering that their xGA is 1.40. The Merseysiders average 15.65 shots per game and only 10.03 at the other end. They have fired in 5.52 on target which is over a third of their attempts. Liverpool have racked up a massive 6.10 corners per game and only 3.61 against. Cards have been middling numbers in their fixtures at an average of 3.13.
Player shots and shots on target
The theme with West Ham players is poor accuracy. Said Benrahma averages 3.11 shots per 90 mins but only a third of them have been on target. The duo of Paqueta and Bowen both average around 2 shots per game but only around 25% accuracy, which is disappointing. Michail Antonio is slightly more accurate at 0.68 per 90 mins and is another who averages close to two shots. Both Kurt Zouma and Declan Rice are usually good to try their luck at least once.
Mo Salah averages 3.24 shots per 90 mins with 1.25 on target. He’s always going to be a major contender in the shooting categories for Liverpool. Diogo Jota has come back from injury well and is another who averages close to 3 shots, whilst Cody Gakpo isn’t far behind. A lot depends on who starts the match for Liverpool and Salah is the only real guarantee of significant minutes. Virgil van Dijk must be watched from set pieces and is usually good for at least one attempt per match.
Player goals and assists
Said Benrahma and Jarrod Bowen lead the West Ham scoring charts, but only with 5 goals each. The simple fact is that the Hammers have lacked goals all season and nobody else really sticks out apart from potentially Antonio. Bowen and Benrahma also lead the team with assists, but they have generally lacked playmakers all year.
Mo Salah has not had his greatest year but still has 16 goals and 7 assists. Darwin Nunez has scored 9 goals and is someone to consider potentially off the bench. Diogo Jota has been in good form recently and has four goals and four assists. Both Liverpool fullbacks Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson are always threats to assist. Trent has had a poor season but shown recent signs of improved form.
West Ham only average 42.20% possession and are known for sitting back and then counter-attacking under David Moyes. Midfielder Declan Rice is the obvious stand-out player for potential passes. He is the engine and heartbeat of the team and averages 55.9 passes per 90 mins, an impressive figure considering West Ham’s overall possession numbers.
It is likely that Liverpool will monopolise possession considering that they average 60% overall in the Premier League. The most reliable man in this department for passing is probably Virgil van Dijk (78.8 per 90 mins) considering he will more than likely last the whole match. Anyone else of significance is at risk of being pulled early, although Trent Alexander-Arnold (71.90) would be fancied to have at least 70 passes if he lasts 80 mins or more.
West Ham cards and Fouls
The London outfit have been quite a clean team this season. Declan Rice has five cards but nobody else has more than four. Paqueta averages 2.12 fouls per 90 mins, whilst Coufal is another candidate for fouls. Declan Rice generally plays quite a clean game this season. For someone in his position to average just 0.68 fouls per 90 mins feels quite low.
The Liverpool front three will all pose regular problems to the West Ham defence. Cody Gakpo is surprisingly the most fouled at 1.93 per 90 mins. Salah and Jota are probably the more dangerous players but perhaps West Ham will be more cautious when approaching them. Fabinho and Curtis Jones will engage in midfield with Jones the most likely to win free kicks.
Matchups to watch
Lucas Paqueta vs Curtis Jones
Vladimir Coufal vs Diogo Jota
Aaron Cresswell vs Mo Salah
Liverpool cards and fouls
Fabinho stands out as being the dirtiest Liverpool player. He has picked up 9 cards and also has a foul average of 1.55 per 90 mins. However, he is walking a tightrope because he’d get suspended for 2 matches if he’s carded here. Both fullbacks will be tested by West Ham. Trent and Robertson average less than one foul per 90 mins but it would be a surprise if either managed to play a totally clean game vs Bowen and Benrahma. Another player worth keeping an eye on to pick up a cheap foul or two is Thiago or Curtis Jones depending on who starts.
Jarrod Bowen is an elusive player and his high dribbling rate of 3.42 makes him an ideal foul magnet. The opposition will have to deal with him, and Andy Robertson will be strongly tested. Another player with a high dribbling rate (5.26) is Said Benrahma. He will have to be marshalled by Trent and he might get caught out. Michail Antonio is a very physical centre forward and will be a handful which Virgil van Dijk needs to take responsibility for. Fabinho vs Paqueta is another obvious matchup in midfield.
Matchups to watch
Trent Alexander-Arnold vs Said Benrahma
Andy Robertson vs Jarrod Bowen
Fabinho vs Lucas Paqueta
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
I’ve had a deep dive into the stats just like you have, and there are a few star picks that shone amongst the data and the betting markets. I’ve put them into a bet builder which you can also load below.