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The first half of the quarter-finals on Wimbledon day 9 was awesome, not for our Wimbledon predictions, but from an entertainment standpoint it was one of the best days of the championships so far. Elina Svitolina knocking out top seed Iga Swiatek was probably the highlight, in a gruelling match where the Ukrainian came through to win the final set 6-2. Marketa Vondrousova continued her excellent form in SW19 with a three-set victory over Jessica Pegula as both matches on the women’s side went the distance.
Novak Djokovic survived a scare in dropping the first set to Andrey Rublev but showed his immense mettle to battle back and progress in four, while Jannik Sinner got over the line against Roman Safiullin also in four. The one semi-final set in stone on the men’s side is a repeat of a memorable match from last year’s tournament, when Djokovic got past Sinner at the quarter-final stage despite going two sets down to the Italian, a tantalising proposition for our Wimbledon predictions.
Carlos Alcaraz takes on Holger Rune, a player he knows well from juniors, while surprise package Christopher Eubanks faces Daniil Medvedev with both players in unfamiliar territory at this stage of the draw. Aryna Sabalenka plays the last remaining American on the women’s side in Madison Keys, with the headline match being a repeat of last year’s final in Ons Jabeur vs Elena Rybakina.
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Do not write Eubanks off
Christopher Eubanks has a very different background to Daniil Medvedev and is rightfully underdog to progress on Wimbledon day 10. However, to this extent, looking at his outright price of 4/1, is very questionable. Medvedev looked to be in a very tough match until Jiri Lehecka began suffering from blisters in his last outing, and his return game has left a lot to be desired off of hard courts in the 27-year-old’s career.
Eubanks’ fourth round victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas was very much against the run of play, but when he hits his spots on serve, as he has been this fortnight, you cannot count him out. It is mainly Eubanks’ ability on serve that makes the offering of a +5.5 game handicap enticing. Medvedev won the pair’s only previous meeting 6-3 7-5 at the Miami Masters this year, another breakthrough event for Eubanks, but the scoreline does not tell the whole story there with the American very much on top prior to a rain delay.
Given the nature of the outsider’s run at Wimbledon, all the pressure is on Medvedev here and the crowd will likely be with Eubanks on Court 1. Eubanks has only been broken 2.25 times per match at Wimbledon and a repeat of that would give us a great chance of landing this bet.
Daniil Medvedev vs Christopher Eubanks
Sabalenka-Keys, yes please
Madison Keys displayed some strong problem-solving skills to come back from a set, 4-1 and break point down to defeat remarkable 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva in the fourth round. The Eastbourne champion has now won nine in a row on grass, and can enjoy the underdog tag when she takes on Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarussian has a good game for grass but has looked shaky in patches at Wimbledon, and Keys came out on top in the pair’s only previous head-to-head on the surface.
Keys has only dropped one set in her nine-match win streak, and should pose the biggest test to Sabalenka so far in the tournament by some distance. The total games market did appeal, set at 22.5, but there is a chance that at least one set in the match is fairly one-sided, which is sometimes more common in women’s tennis, so taking Keys to win a set, as the underdog, appeals more.
Sabalenka is rightful favourite given her performances this year, and even at Wimbledon in 2021, but what seems more certain is that the Court 1 crowd are going to be treated to a great contest. Keys only dropped serve twice in her opening three matches in SW19 and should have plenty left in the tank to give the world no. 2 a run for her money.
Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka
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