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Wolves vs Man City
20th October
kick off 14:00 Over 1.5 Man City Cards Ilkay Gundogan To Have 2+ Shots Over 6.5 Man City Corners Nelson Semedo To Commit 1+ Fouls
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Leg 1: Over 1.5 Man City cards
Despite extremely low foul numbers, just 6.60 fouls per game from City players, the champions have had a surprisingly high number of cards, picking up 17 bookings from their seven league fixtures to date.
Pep Guardiola’s side are always happy to push players up in search of an overload, but this does leave them very exposed to a counter-attack, which is why so many of their fouls result in cards being shown. They have seen two or more cards in seven straight league games, picking up 2.43 cards per game so far this season.
Wolves look like a good opponent for that run to continue, with two cards shown to their opponents in all seven of their Premier League fixtures so far this season, with 2.71 cards shown to their opponents per game.
More cards have generally been shown to Wolves’ opponents in their home games too, adding extra weight to this selection. They have welcomed Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle to Molineux this season, with all three picking up three bookings.
Leg 2: Over 6.5 Man City Corners
This is a corner line which looks easily achievable for Man City. Recent games against Wolves at Molineux have been far from easy for the reigning champions, which should help the corner total rise, with more corners generally seen in closer games.
City have now taken at least six corners in six straight Premier League games and have had eight or more in five of their last six. Across the Premier League and Champions League so far this season, they are averaging 8.56 corners per game. They have averaged 6.67 corners per game in their three away league games, but two of those games have been against much more difficult opponents – Chelsea and Newcastle.
Wolves have allowed over seven corners in two of the three Premier League games that have been played at Molineux this season. Liverpool had 10 corners in their recent 2-1 win, whilst Newcastle hit seven in their 2-1 win earlier in September.
On average, away sides at Wolves have taken 7.33 corners per game. Across all Premier League games, the average jumps to 8.0 corners conceded per game. They have allowed seven or more corners in four of their last five league games.
Leg 3: Ilkay Gundogan tO hAVE 2+ shOTS
Man City’s former captain may have scored only once since his shock summer return to the club, but Gundogan has not be dissuaded from shooting, with the former Germany international averaging an impressive 1.90 shots per 90.
That is in keeping with his record across his previous three seasons in the Premier League, where he averaged 2.03, 2.67 and 2.31 shots per 90 respectively, so we should expect that rate to be maintained throughout the season. It may even increase with the absence of Rodri, who would normally take plenty of shots for City from the edge of the area.
Gundogan has now had at least two shots in six straight games for Man City. He has played in attacking, central and defensive midfield for Man City in these last six games but has still had two shots or more in each.
Furthermore, having retired from international football, he should come into this game refreshed after enjoying some time off. With Wolves conceding more goals than any other Premier League side this season, Gundogan should get plenty of chances to strike, and he rarely needs an invitation to do so when the opportunity presents itself.
Leg 4: nELSON sEMEDO tO coMMIT 1+ foULS
Of all Wolves starters, only Joao Gomes has committed more fouls per 90 than Nelson Semedo’s 2.13. The Portugal international full-back has committed at least one foul in each of his last five starts for club and country, with four of those starts featuring two or more fouls.
Both of Semedo’s two starts at Molineux have seen him make three or more fouls, fouling four times against Newcastle and three times against Liverpool. He has also fouled four times on his only start for Portugal this season, and again in the last international break when featuring against Poland, despite playing only nine minutes.
He has strong matchups here too, facing off against Jeremy Doku and Josko Gvardiol, who have won 1.89 and 1.23 fouls per game so far this season. Doku has been fouled in eight of his 10 starts in the Premier League for City and Nations League with Belgium, whilst Gvardiol has been fouled in three straight Premier League games for Man City.
With Semedo needing to foul just once for this selection to land, the data suggests that this is an excellent odds boosting option for this bet builder.
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