It’s been a week of very narrow misses on these bets, but I’m sure we’re all in agreement that they’ve been great fun. So, why not finish with one more shot at it? As always, the reasoning behind the picks from my expert can be found below.
After landing 3/4 selections on both accas on the first 3 days, something’s gotta give! My first choice in Saturday’s place acca is Faisal Road to finish in the top 4 for the Gosden team in the Chesham Stakes at 14.30. The favourite in this race is really well related, demolished the field on his debut and looks a highly likely winner so we’re certainly going to focus on value. In the search for value, I stumbled across Faisal Road who won at Yarmouth on debut, beating a Godolphin runner by a neck who went on to score by 2 lengths next time out and the horse in 3rd from that Yarmouth run bolted up by 8 and a half lengths on his next start. This is some high class form that has already been franked and there are quite a few runners around the same price as him that you certainly cannot say that about. The Gosden’s are flying and the owner was very unlucky not to have a winner earlier in the week with Cadillac. Redemption might be on the cards here for this grey colt who looks to have a fair bit of talent. Do not be concerned that Frankie Dettori is riding Gosden’s other runner and Jack Mitchell is riding this one, the owners have final say on who rides their horses and Jack Mitchell has ridden both of their UK trained horses at Ascot this week.
Similarly to the selection in the first race, the next selection comes from a race with an odds on favourite that should get the job done. That said, the selection has a pretty good chance of finishing very close to him on a collateral form line through 2021 Derby winner Adayar. The selection is Third Realm to finish top 4 in the Hardwicke Stakes at 15.40. He actually managed to beat Adayar in the Lingfield Derby Trial on just his 3rd start last year so connections must have been somewhat disappointed at Epsom when they finished 11 lengths behind him in the main event. He didn’t win again in his 3 year old career but placed in a group 3 at Goodwood and was 2 lengths behind Dubai Honour in a French group 2, that rival going on to win multiple group events and place 2nd in the Champion Stakes and 4th in the Hong Kong Cup, securing a huge prize. He returned with a 3rd in a listed race over C&D behind the enigmatic Al Aasy but bounced back in no uncertain terms when landing a Goodwood listed contest by 6 lengths, leaving Irish Derby runner up Lone Eagle trailing in his wake. It is a big ask for him to win this but his form with Adayar entitles him to be within a length or two of Hurricane Lane who is very much expected to win. I expect to see him take a big step forward from the Goodwood run.
For the Wokingham at 17.00, we tipped a horse in the lucky 15 who loves Ascot but in this place acca we’ll be backing a horse to win at Ascot on their first visit to the track. That horse is Blackrod and I think he’s got a great chance of finishing top 6 given his remarkably consistent profile. He’s so upwardly progressive and his trainer is great with horses like this, see Dakota Gold and Gale Force Maya etc. His last 5 runs have form figures of 21131 so it remains to be seen where his ceiling lies and all of those runs have been in big field handicaps, the smallest field being 12 where he still managed to win over 5f on his first and only try at that trip. The form of his most recent run at Newmarket is working out really well, the 4th, 8th and 12th have all won nice handicaps since and the 10th ran really well in the Buckingham Palace off a heavy weight. He is drawn high which is quite important in races on Ascot’s straight course and he will absolutely love the good ground. Michael Dods had a double at York last Friday too so his horses might just be starting to hit a nice vein of form. Blackrod has outstanding place claims.
Finally, I’ll select a really likeable 6 year old to finish in the top 4 in the concluding contest, the Queen Alexandra Stakes at 18.10 and that horse is Calling The Wind who belied odds of 40/1 to finish 2nd in this race last year. This horse was a real success story last year for Richard Hughes, absolutely loving any marathon trip that was thrown at him. He was 2nd in this race last year to a fancied Willie Mullins runner and after that he managed to win at Goodwood over 2m4f under Pat Dobbs. He was then 2nd in competitive handicaps over 1m4, which is an inadequate trip for him but he was a fantastic 3rd in the Cesarewitch between graded quality hurdler Buzz and Burning Victory who was a good 4th in the Ascot Gold Cup earlier this week. His runs this year have both been over 1m4f which is probably too short for him, that tells me he wasn’t fully geared up but it is likely that his trainer will have him geared up for this and has booked David Egan who rode him to the silver medal position in last year’s race. The presence of Trueshan in here could determine what sort of price we get as I think he is unlikely to run if we don’t see any rain. That said, I think Calling The Wind is a great place bet whether Trueshan is in the field or not and hopefully he remains in there so we get a nicer price!
