Another profitable day on the Lucky 15 yesterday, albeit with just a small return. 1 winner, 2 places and a loser resulting in a £19.70 return from the £15 total stake. Let’s see if we can go out with a bang on the final day.
The first horse in our lucky 15 shall be Noble Truth in the Jersey Stakes at a best price 4/1. I think this looks like good value considering he’s the 2nd highest rated horse in the field and was a supremely easy 6 length winner of a listed race over this distance on his most recent start. He raced a fair bit as a 2 year old and banged heads with some of the best around, losing to St James’ Palace runner-up and multiple black type scoring 2 year old Lusail on debut before beating the very well fancied Ehraz on his 2nd start. He was a bit disappointing in the Acomb but the form of that race has worked out really well, the winner that day went on to beat Coroebus in the Royal Lodge. Following that he went on to beat the Derby runner-up Hoo Ya Mal at Doncaster and was 2nd in a French group 1 in less than favourable heavy ground. His only bad race came at 1 mile in Riyadh when he was tailed off in the Saudi Derby on a dirt surface he will have never seen before. He very much looks like a 7 furlong specialist and I imagine the boys at Godolphin will have him absolutely primed to win this race to back up the remarkable 1-2 finish they had in the race last year with Creative Force leading home Naval Crown.
Speaking of Creative Force, he’s the next horse in the lucky 15! He runs at 16.20 in the Platinum Jubilee and he is priced up between 7 and 9/1. I know that I’ve napped a horse in this race but I think that Creative Force is perfectly primed to pick up the pieces if he were to bomb out and the best price 9/1 on him at this stage almost seems a little too overpriced. Godolphin, Charlie Appleby and William Buick are having a relatively good week so far and things could be an awful lot better for them on Saturday, such is the fire power they have going into the weekend. This horse was uber progressive last year, starting life in handicaps off a mark of 89 before climbing through the ranks and deservedly winning the group 1 Champions Day Sprint at Ascot last year by a length. He’s a tiny horse but he’s always determined and he as a model of consistency last year, winning 4 in a row and placing in a group 2 either side of being a narrowly beaten 5th and 6th in group 1 races. He’s won 2 of his 3 visits to Ascot and we can forgive him for the time that he lost as it was on just his 2nd start in the Coventry where the big field may have been a bit too daunting for someone so inexperienced and he may have let the hustle and bustle of the occasion overwhelm him a little. Both of his Ascot wins have been from when he’s been drawn low so I hope that him being in stall 1 for Saturday’s spectacle is a good omen. He’s a cracking each way price.
My next pick is another horse who absolutely loves Ascot and that is Fresh in the Wokingham who looks set for a run as big as last year’s which saw him finish 2nd in this very event off a mark of just 2lb lower to the classy Rohaan. He returns this year off a mark of 98 and aside from this year having quick ground, the conditions of the race look set to be very similar as he is a similar price of 7/1, has only marginally gone up in the weights and is drawn just 2 stalls away from the position he came out of last year. His form figures at Ascot read 21234 which is quite remarkable when you realise that he’s ran at 6f and 7f and ran there on good ground, soft ground and heavy ground. His trainer James Fanshawe had a horse place at Ascot at 22/1 earlier this week and according to Racing Post, his horses have a run to form rate of 70% at the moment which is pretty high. There doesn’t look like an obvious group horse in the field this year as there is no King’s Lynn and Rohaan has significantly regressed so I’m hoping Fresh can make amends for last year and get himself one place better than last year. Jockey Danny Tudhope is right in the mix for leading jockey at the meeting this week and he’ll be firing on all cylinders to try and cement that title for himself, hopefully managing to ride another winner in these colours after winning on Dramatised in the Queen Mary on Wednesday.
Finally in the lucky 15, I’ve got another Godolphin horse but this one is trained by the Gosden team and Frankie Dettori will take the ride which seems a bit risky given the week he’s had so far but he’s due one winner right?! His horse Honiton is a best price 8/1 and I really fancy his chances after watching the action earlier this week as 2 horses that have beaten him (Eldar Eldarov and Secret State) were both Royal Ascot winners and the form of his 3 year old reappearance has a fantastic look to it with the winner My Prospero being a neck 3rd in the St James Palace and the 2nd placed horse winning the Britannia. I can’t see the price lasting for long once people catch on! His 2yo debut isn’t even working out too badly as the winner of his Nottingham maiden was a 33/1 3rd in the UAE Derby back in March. He finally got his head in front at Sandown after destroying a fairly average field but following that, he’s still up to a mark of 94 and considering the horses that he’s been behind so far this year, I think that is a little bit lenient. Despite not having a winner at the meeting yet this year, John & Thady Gosden are still in stellar form and operating at a 31% strike rate in the last fortnight. Hopefully their Ascot fortunes can turn around on Saturday.
