Auxerre vs Troyes
The price here for goals is too high in my honest opinion. The 1.33 available for over 1.5 may sound small, however I’d have expected that price to have been closer to the 1.2 mark.
Troyes are a favourite of mine when it comes to backing goals. They’re absolute nutters, especially when playing away from home.
They have the highest number of match goals on average in Ligue 1 and they too the charts for games over 2.5 goals (68%). We only need over 1.5 here, which they hit at a rate of 89%.
But their away numbers, are mind boggling. On the road, their games average 4.36 goals. You read that right… 4.36.
86% of their away games have had over 2.5 goals and 93% have had over 1.5.
They haven’t kept a single away clean sheet but have also managed to net in 11/14.
Their top scorer is talented youngster Mame Balde, his 9 goals have all come on the road this season.
Auxerre games aren’t as entertaining but they’re still decent in the areas we’re looking.
Their matches average 2.64 goals and 75% have seen this selection land.
Also, the context behind this game is massive. These two both sit in the relegation zone, separated by just 2 points. It’s poised wonderfully for goals, especially if someone scores early.
As for cards, again, the situation these two find themselves in plays in to this selection massively.
I expect tempers to fray and for both sides to play on the edge, given what’s at stake.
Whether it be a foul to stop a potential attack when a side is leading, a tackle in frustration or the potential handbags as players lose their cool, I’m expecting the ref to be pretty busy.
The referee is Jerome Brisard. He’s dished out 36 yellows and 2 reds this season, so an average of just above 3 cards per game.
Troyes have received an average of 1.86 bookings per game this season. They’ve received at least 1 card in 86% of their away matches this season.
As for Auxerre, they average 1.71 cards for per game. That increases quite dramatically on home soil; where they receive an average of 2.23 cards per game.
Auxerre have picked up 1 or more bookings in 85% of their home fixtures.