Man City vs Bayern Munich
This game absolutely screams goals. Both sides possess incredible attacking talent but both also can be exposed defensively, especially at the highest level.
Each of City’s last 4 games have seen at least 5 goals. Their last Champions League match was that stunning 7-0 demolition of another German side – RB Leipzig.
Domestically, City produce huge numbers for goals at home. Their matches at The Etihad have averaged 4.36 goals and every single one has seen over 1.5 goals land as a selection.
Bayern’s away games have been goal laden this season. An average of 3.57 match goals on the road and an 86% strike rate for over 1.5 goals
It’s no surprise either that both sides are huge corner producers.
At home, City take an average of 7.36. With Grealish in form and the target of Haaland in the centre, getting balls in to wide areas and in to the box is more a focus of their play than it has been for a number of years, which is always a positive pattern of play when looking for corners.
They don’t concede many at home, only just above 2 on average but even that would see us above the 7.5 mark we need here.
However, Bayern will have more success than just about any side who’ve came here this season and they’ve got plenty of attacking options who can cause damage to a City defence that can look questionable.
Bayern Matches average 10.08 corners with the Bundesliga champions taking an average of 6.15 per game, 4.86 when playing away.
Given the extent to which Bayern dominate a lot of their domestic matches. The fact they average 1.67 cards per games speaks volumes about the players individual attitudes and desire to get stuck in.
With the likes of Kimmich, Goretzka, Upamecano, Pavard and Cancelo (if he plays) all stand out as potential card culprits. The Cancelo narrative could be very interesting given his falling out with Guardiola.
When playing away from home in the league, Bayern have been accumulating 2 cards per game on average.
City draw plenty of cards too. On average, away teams at The Etihad average 2.43 cards.
No PL side has left the Etihad without a booking and 79% had 2 or more.
Benfica vs Inter Milan
Inter are averaging 5.7 SOT/90 in the league and they’re rattling off over 15 shots.
Dzeko alone is averaging 1.45/90 in the Champions League this season. He’s expected to lead the line with Lautauro Martinez, who’s netted 14 times this season.
Benfica are conceding just under 3 SOT/90 this season in the Champions League but with Inter’s quality, I’d expect them to be able to bump that number up to the level we need.
As the City game screamed goals, this one screamed cards to me.
Two sides not afraid of the dirty side of the game. Domestically, Inter average 1.90 cards and draw an average of 2.59 from their opponents.
In the CL, those numbers are similar at 2.13 and 2.50. Their Champions League away games have seen them pick up an average of 2.50 cards.
For a team as dominant as they are, Benfica’s card stats are incredible. They average 2 per game and also draw a hefty 2.96 from their opponents.
In the CL, they’re yet to play a home match where they haven’t received a card.
Inter will want to do whatever they can to return to Milan with a positive result. Expect them to tackle hard and dabble in the dark arts if necessary.
This is a huge opportunity for Benfica who’ve been on a wonderful European run. They’ll go to great lengths to keep their European dream alive.