Italy vs England
Harry Kane is a man on a mission. He’s one goal away from becoming England’s all-time top goal scorer so he’ll be gunning to give the Italian defenders a hard evening’s work.
Three shots isn’t a big ask when it comes to Kane. He averaged 3.91 shots per 90 minutes during his efforts for England in 2022, and the on target rate sat at 2.18 P/90.
England’s last trip to Italy came as recently as last September when the Three Lions were beaten 1-0 and doomed to relegation. Kane had five shots during that match, more than any other player on the pitch, and a couple of them hit the target.
Don’t let Tottenham’s recent misfortunes fool you, Kane is having an incredible season personally. He’s already scored 21 Premier League goals which have been produced from his rate of 3.45 shots P/90.
A Jude Bellingham foul looks like a good addition. I think there’s a lot of value to be had with fouls in the midfield area on both sides. Bellingham and Rice vs Barella and Verratti just screams battle after battle.
Bellingham played 90 minutes during that last trip to Italy and he ended up committing a couple of fouls. Only Eric Dier in that England side committed more. During 2022, Bellingham averaged 1.30 fouls P/90 in his international appearances.
Bellingham is an amazing talent and he can’t half get stuck in. He’s averaging 1.21 fouls P/90 for Dortmund domestically so he’s consistently well over one foul per 90 mins. Bellingham has committed at least one foul in 12 of his last 14 appearances including his last seven in a row.
Nicolo Barella is a player that I really admire, but he’s also a bit of a whinge bag. Exactly how you’d describe Bruno Fernandes, he’s very similar in that sense. 1.36 for him to commit a foul at any stage is great value.
Barella averaged bang on 1.00 foul P/90 during his time spent playing for Italy last year, an average that would’ve been higher if they played part at the Qatar World Cup I’m sure. For Inter Milan, his average is slightly higher at 1.12 fouls P/90.
The Inter midfielder has been producing fouls at a good rate in recent weeks as he’s committed at least one in six of his last seven matches in all competitions at club level.
Barella should be in an incredibly interesting midfield battle with Jude Bellingham who’s a generational talent for England and hard to contain. Bellingham has been fouled at least once in his last 12 straight appearances and he’s been fouled twice or more in four of his last five. You really can imagine Barella chopping him down at some stage.
A Giovanni Di Lorenzo card at 3/1 is a much better price than I was expecting. I’ve thrown it straight into my bet builder without much hesitation, but I’ll let you know the reasoning anyway.
Di Lorenzo is up against Jack Grealish who we all love for his ability to draw fouls and cards out of his opponents. Incredibly, Grealish was fouled a massive 6.25 times per 90 minutes during his time playing for England in 2022.
He’s doing the same thing at club level for Man City too. He’s City’s most fouled player having been fouled a whopping 60 times so far, that’s 36 more times than Riyad Mahrez who’s second on the list on 24.
Grealish is fouled 3.55 times P/90 for Man City and he’s been fouled at least once in 16 of his last 17 starts under Pep Guardiola. He is simply one of the best players in the world at causing panic in an opponent.