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Hour glass kick off 15:00 18 Feb

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Nottingham Forest vs Man City

Calendar 18th February
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Man City to score 2+ goals and 3+ match cards
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Simple one this. Although the schedule is busy, I can’t see City struggling here especially after they drew level on points with Arsenal after their 3-1 midweek win at The Emirates.

Even if City rotate a bit here, they’ve got such an abundance of quality that it won’t matter.

They stuck 6 past Forest in the last meeting with Steve Coopers men mustering up just 2 shot on target and only 25% of the ball.

Form has been decent for Forest recently but they’re absolutely hamstrung by injuries for this game.

As many as 10 first team players are absence. Causing severe issues, especially in defence.

With Niakhate, McKenna, Kouyate, Boly, Biancone and Richards all injured. Cooper has submitted an emergency request to have veteran defender Steve Cook reinstated to the squad.

City have all the tools to win this at an absolute canter. If they produce just a fraction of what they did in that 6-0 win, this should still be comfortable.

Forest games average 4 cards with the hosts picking up an average of 2.23 per game, that rises to 2.64 when spurred on by the home crowd.

City average above 1 card per game and draw a hefty 2.43.

With pressure mounting, I decided on match cards rather than team cards for Forest. If things are a bit tighter than expected, I can easily see some professional fouls from the City players.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Calendar 18th February
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon Brentford to win, Brentford 3+ corners & Crystal Palace 1+ cards
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Brentford are flying. Thomas Frank’s men are now 10 Premier League games without defeat.

Incredible results in that run too as The Bees beat City and Liverpool, whilst taking a point from both Spurs and most recently; Arsenal.

They’ve been particularly impressive at home, losing just 1 game here all season. They’ve notched up 3 home wins on the spin.

No surprise really. Their metrics are excellent. Averaging an xG of 1.75 and an xGA of just 1.17.

Excellent individual output is converting that to 2.09 goals scored and just 0.91 against.

The positivity around Palace has drained recently. The Eagles are now 6 without a win and have only managed 9 points on the road this season.

Pretty notable absentees haven’t helped. Both Zaha and Andersen have been injured and both are expected to miss out again here.

Brentford average 4.64 corners when playing at home and have managed 3 or more in 82% of games.

Palace are shipping an average of 5.60 on the road and 70% of their away fixtures have seen the other side get 3 or more corners.

Palace are also a very card happy side. They’re receiving an average of 2.45 per game.

They’re yet to play a single Premier League game this season where they’ve ended it with 0 cards.

Brentford draw far more cards at home than they do away. Opponents have averaged 2.09 cards at the community stadium this season, 91% of sides coming here have picked up at least 1 card.

Brighton vs Fulham

Calendar 18th February
Football icon kick off 15:00
Football icon 3+ match goals, Brighton 4+ corners & Fulham 2+ cards
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Gone a bit bolder here as I expect this to be a very very good game.

Two sides who love to attack with aggression and play on the front foot.
Goals look a great pick here. Brighton games average 3.19 goals, the 4th highest in the league.

Fulham games average 2.78 goals.

What looks brilliant here is the hit rates these two have for over 2.5 goals. This selection has landed in 62% of Brighton’s games.

Fulham have seen this selection land in 70% of their games – that’s the highest in the division, joint with Man City.

These two also rank 1st and 2nd in the league when it comes to BTTS landing.
Brighton are an absolute corner machine when playing at home.

Their expansive style of play and focus down the wings makes them a dream for corner bets.

They average a frankly ridiculous 7.70 corners per match at home, they’ve had a minimum of 5 in every single home game game, we only need 4 in this one.

Fulham ship plenty too, they concede an average of 5.91 on the road and their opposition have managed 4 or more corners in 74% of their games this season.

Fulham are also a fantastic team for cards. They pick up an average of 2.43 which spikes to a hefty 3.18 when playing away.

They’ve had 2 or more in 82% of games on the road. They’ve got a plethora of players who have picked up plenty of cards this season – Palhinha (8), Reid (7), Pereira (6), Tete (6), Reed (5), Mitrovic (5) and Robinson (5).

Brighton draw plenty of cards too. The Seagull’s opponents have averaged 2.43 cards per game, 2.6 when visiting the Amex.

70% of visiting sides have received 2 or more cards.

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Calendar 18th February
Football icon kick off 17:30
Football icon 8+ Match Corners & each team to have 1+ cards
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A scenario Toon fans might have struggled to believe this time last year – Newcastle enter this game as favourites.

I can see this being a tight affair. Newcastle will do what they usually do and defend in a compact, robust manor.

Without Guimaraes, they’ll focus more play in to wider areas. They’ll also retain lower possession, allowing Liverpool to have spells where they also gain a foothold in the game.

I’m going for match corners here. Liverpool games avergae 10.20, with 80% of their away matches seeing 8 or more taken.

They’re a beast for taking corners, they average 6.67 per game. Newcastle’s defensive structure will funnel The Reds in to wider areas, so expect plenty of crosses from the fullbacks and Newcastle to take no chances and turn them behind if needed.

On the flip side, the Toon are great for racking up corners. Their games average 11.13 which is very high, in fact, it’s the highest in the division.

On home soil, Newcastle take an average of 7.73 corners.

We’ve seen in their games without Bruno, that more emphasis is put in to the wide players to make things happen.

Whether it be Wilson or Isak in the middle, both are good targets. There’s then the runs of players like Joelinton too.

With Schar, Burn and Botman all venturing forward when Newcastle get set pieces too, it’s a real weapon they can utilise – so there’s always a thought to play for a corner when possible.

As for cards, I think this’ll be a hotly contested game and both sides will leave with names in the referees book.

Antony Taylor dished out 6 cards in Arsenal vs City in midweek. It was noticeable how keen he was to clamp down early, booking 3 City players before half time.

In 16 PL games this season he’s dished out 61 yellows and 2 reds.

Newcastle games average 4.14 cards with the Toon receiving a card in 82% of home matches.

Liverpool don’t average a huge number of cards, they pick up just above 1 per game. However, on the road they’ve had at least 1 in 70% of games and no side has visited St James Park this season and not received a card.

Stake £5
Potential Returns £129.55
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