Manchester City vs Newcastle
Do I really need to tell you why Haaland to have 2 or more shots on target is a good bet? Yes? no? well I’m going to anyway.
He averages 1.82 SOT/90. He’s a truly devastating finisher, he’s actually drastically outperformed his xG. He’s netted 27 goals from an xG of just 18.7, which is pretty insane.
These two played out that fantastic 3-3 draw earlier in the season. Haaland had 4 shots; 3 on target.
Playing against a side like Newcastle suits this bet. Newcastle are strong defensively and will bank in and keep things tight. That’ll lead to plenty of situations where City are looking to get the ball in/across the box to the big Norwegian.
I’m a big fan of Joelinton. His transformation under Eddie Howe has been absolutely incredible. From failing striker to midfield enforcer, he’s now an integral part of Newcastle’s fantastic performance this season.
The only thing as consistent as his performances has been his ability to commit fouls and get himself booked. He’s had 9 league cards this season – only Joao Palhinha has had more.
In the league, he’s averaged 1.89 fouls/90. He’s an absolute brute and pretty prone to just bowling people over or over exerting his stature.
In the 3-3 draw, Joelinton was booked and made a total of 4 fouls. Which fills me with confidence for this selection.
Liverpool vs Manchester United
Rashford is in the form of his life. Since the World Cup he’s been devastating in front of goal.
He averages 1.38 SOT/90 so far this season. Since the World Cup he’s averaged 1.70 SOT/90.
United started their revival with that 2-1 win over Liverpool. In that game, Rashford had 5 shots, 2 on target and in my opinion he’s a considerably better player right now than he was back then.
In big games, you’ll often see me gravitating towards Bruno Fernandes for fouls/cards. In the tougher games, he’s got more defending to do and also there’s a far higher chance he loses his head.
He averages 1.22 fouls/90. Which is solid, but a bit short of what we’re after. However, when you look at his performances against stronger sides; his foul count increases drastically.
He made 3 vs Barcelona recently, he made 5 across 2 games against Man City, 3 in the league vs Newcastle and most importantly he made 2 and was booked in the last match against Liverpool.