90% Club Acca

Villa are on a poor run and no game looks like an easy one for them at the moment. One man who has consistently been busy this season is Martinez in the Villa goal. He’s made 2+ saves in 12 of their 13 games so far, with only Everton falling to force a save out of him, though it should be pointed out they scored two goals.

Chances have become easier to come by against Villa recently, they’ve given up 25 shots on target across their last 4 league games, and whilst they’ve played some top teams such as Liverpool and Chelsea, they still allowed Palace to rack up 6 shots on target.

Brentford have forced 2+ GK saves from the opposition GK in all but 2 of their league games this season, that includes away games at Liverpool, City, and Spurs. With Villa’s poor form and Brentford’s consistency, this is a solid bet.

Liverpool are taking apart any team that is put in front of them at the minute. They’ve won 11 out of 13 in the league, which means with a win rate of 84% they fall short of the requirements for a 90% Club Acca, that’s how high the line is.

However, they did win the second half vs Arsenal, meaning this selection has landed in 92% of their league games. Newcastle away should be a tricky game for the reds but they’ve dealt with much trickier with aplomb in recent weeks.

Newcastle aren’t exactly on fire right now, either. They followed up their drab 2-0 loss at home to West Ham with an uninspiring 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, taking one point from two games they’d realistically have expected to win. Liverpool should have too much for the magpies. I expect them to win, but we only need them to win either half here.

This Arsenal side love to foul. In fact, this is a selection that has landed in every single league game this season. They’re averaging 12.6 fouls per game, it’s just something they do very consistently.

Arsenal’s attackers are aggressive in the press, with players like Havertz and Saka often bundling the opposition over high up the pitch. They’re also big fans of tactical fouls, fouling soon after losing possession to avoid any potentially damaging transitions. New additions like Calfiori, Timber, and Merino have all added to the foul count, and I expect that to continue against United here.

United haven’t typically been a side that draws a lot of fouls. They have only drawn 10+ in 7 of their 13 league games, which isn’t a high hit rate. However, there is a new manager at the helm, and it’s worth noting that they’ve drawn 11 and 12 Amorim’s first two league games in charge. The new style of play looks like it draws more fouls too.

Southampton have been finding their way into the referee’s notebook with steadfast consistency this season, picking up 2+ cards in 12 of their 13 league games. In fact, they’ve picked up 3+ cards in their last 9 league games, making their odds of 1.6 to pick up two here seem very generous.

They come up against a Chelsea side here that draws a lot of cards from their opponents too. Chelsea have drawn 2+ cards in their last 12 league games, with only City on the opening day falling short of the required line. I expect Chelsea to cause Southampton a lot of problems on Wednesday, and with that I think there will be rash or desperate challenges that bring cards with them.

This is a selection that has landed in 12 of 13 league games for both Man City and Forest. City’s poor form has also coincided with a boost in their card numbers; they’ve picked up 3+ by themselves in their last 3 league games. City’s games are averaging 4.92 match cards across the season. That breaks down to 2.31 for Pep’s men and 2.62 against.

Forest’s numbers are even higher. Their matches average 6.08 cards per match, which is broken down into 2.31 for and 3.77 against. They drew 3 cards out of Arsenal, 6 from Chelsea, and 4 from Liverpool. I think these two sides should comfortably combine for over 2.5 cards here.