Bournemouth vs Brighton
This game jumped off the page at me for goals; especially with the mood Brighton are in, which they have been for much of the season.
De Zerbi’s side drew 3-3 with Brentford on Saturday in a true Premier League classic, which really epitomised what it means to watch ‘end to end’ football.
Brighton racked up a ridiculous 3.66 xG in that game. They had 29 shots and 14, yes FOURTEEN on target. Obscene numbers.
They did also concede 7 shots on target.
The best part is, the Seagulls tend to have far more entertaining away games. On the road this season their matches have seen an average of 3.67 goals and every single one has seen over 1.5 goals land.
The Cherries see an average of 2.93 goals per game with 79% of their PL fixtures landing for over 1.5 goals.
Away from home, Brighton have kept just 1 clean sheet in 12 games. Bournemouth are far stronger at home, taking 19 of their 27 points here so don’t be surprised to see them on the scoresheet.
This is amazing value. March is in the form of his life right now and in a game where you’ve got prices like Mitoma at 1.33 for a SOT and Mac Allister at 1.36, this is a much better bet statistically, for a far more generous price.
March had 8 shots on Saturday and hit the target 5 times. At every opportunity he was coming in from that right hand side, on to his favoured left foot and getting a strike off.
He’d scored in his last 3 games prior to Saturday and has 7 this season, he’s a player who’s taken on a whole new style since De Zerbi took charge.
His shooting stats are outrageous. They’re so consistent.
He’s had 1 or more shots on target in 12 of his last 13 matches. You really need to visualise this properly to see what I’m saying, here’s his SOT (shots) numbers from his last 13 games:
4 (8), 1 (2), 1 (1), 2 (2), 1 (2), 1 (3), 2 (4), 0 (3), 1 (4), 1 (3), 2 (4), 2 (3), 2 (4).
Given that Bournemouth concede an average of 16+ shots a game and just above 5 on target, I think 1.67 for a March SOT here is one of the bets of the evening.
Billing is being deployed as a secondary striker this season. Tall, strong, rangey and he absolutely loves a ping from distance. He’s a player who perhaps hasn’t shown his best yet, but he’s got some real ability.
Only Marcus Tavernier and Dom Solanke have had more shots for The Cherries this season than Billing.
He’s had 1 or more shots in 10 of his last 11. He even managed 1 in both games for Denmark during the break, despite playing just 14 and 26 minutes in the 2 matches.
Brighton’s expansive style does cause them to leave gaps especially as they rush forward from midfield. Billing is always happy to take on a shot whenever he sees a chance.
He comes across as someone who really fancies themselves. It does often impact his decision making as he opts for a shot rather than a simple pass.
1.83 for this looks incredible. How Rothwell is the 2nd highest odds player for 1+ foul, I really don’t know.
Rothwell averages 1.72 fouls/90 in the Premier League this season. He’s only failed to make a foul in 1 game he’s started (4-1 win vs Everton).
He’s made a foul in each of his last 6 appearances. He made 2 against Fulham at the weekend.
Brighton’s mobile players draw plenty of fouls too. Mac Allister is felled 1.53 times/90, Caicedo 1.44 and then you’ve got inverted wide men in Mitoma (0.93 fouls drawn) and Solly March (1.37 fouls drawn) all stepping in to the areas where Joe Rothwell will be expected to marshall.
With how quickly Brighton pop the ball around and move between the lines, I fancy Bournemouth to make plenty of fouls and I’d be very shocked if Rothwell escapes without 1.