Brighton host league leaders Arsenal in what should be a fascinating end to the 2022 footballing calendar. Brighton will be looking for consecutive wins over Arsenal after their 3-1 showing in the EFL cup last month, and given their form against the top sides this season, it’s entirely possible. As for Arsenal, it’s a huge game, as a win here could take them 8 points clear going into the new year if other results go their way.
I’ve put together my fully researched value selections below, as well as a stats pack for today’s 5:30 kick off.
Over 2.5 Goals: 1.90 (9/10)
A generous price for a selection that looks more than capable of landing in this fixture. Both sides have seen goals aplenty this season, 46 in 15 for Brighton, and 48 in 15 for Arsenal. Even more encouraging perhaps, are two teams’ xG P/90 stats, 1.75 for the hosts, and 2.03 for the league leaders. Both will create chances
9 of Brighton’s 15 games have seen over 2.5 goals (7 out of 10 under De Zerbi), with the selection landing 10 out of 15 times for Arsenal. Both sides conceded 1, and scored 3 on Boxing Day, and given the step up in opponent, both could concede more than that here.
william Saliba over 63.5 passes: 1.83 (5/6)
Arsenal have largely controlled the eb and flow of games this season, and I don’t expect that to change here. Whilst Brighton like to keep the ball, the Gunners have only had less than 55% possession on 3 occasions this season.
With Arsenal having most of the ball, even away from home, passes for Saliba look a strong shout. The Frenchman averages more passes than anyone else in the Arsenal squad (70.1 P/90), and keeps possession across the backline, whilst often controlling the tempo of games.
Pascal Groß 2+ Tackles: 1.83 (5/6)
Pascal Groß has been a utility man of sorts for Brighton this season. Having played right back, wide midfield, and as a 10, the German is likely to find himself in the heart of the midfield on Saturday evening. This is where the main battles will occur, and Groß will need to put a foot in to stem Arsenal’s build up play.
The Brighton midfielder’s 1.76 tackles P/90 make for decent reading, but his recent stats are even more eye-catching. He’s managed 11 tackles in his last 5, with 4 coming from the centre of midfield against Southampton. These are numbers he could well replicate with Arsenal controlling the majority of the ball.
Check out the Bet Builder Stats Pack below if you want to add to this, or put something together yourself.
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Brighton vs Arsenal Bet Builder Stats Pack
Predicted Lineups
Team Stats
Player shots and shots on target
Player Goals and Assists
Player Passes
Brighton Cards
Arsenal Cards
