Brighton vs Chelsea Betting Tips and Stats

Despite Chelsea’s struggles, I think Jorrel Hato has been somewhat impressive in recent weeks. The Dutch youngster has been given more responsibility as a starting centre back, and whilst he may lack a bit of height, he makes up for it with his aggression.

Hato averages 1.52 fouls P/90 in the Premier League, and since being deployed as a centre back alongside Wesley Fofana, Hato has committed two fouls in back to back games against Man City and Man United. His minutes have of course been limited over the season as a whole, but the nature of those fouls stand out; he’s aggressing onto number 10s, such as Foden and Fernandes, slightly higher up the pitch, and he’s drifting out wide and engaging with wingers such as Semenyo and Mbeumo.

That’s ideal given the players likely to occupy those positions for Brighton. Georginio Rutter stands out as the biggest threat to Hato, his non stop runs and aggression seeing him draw 1.76 fouls P/90. Minteh will naturally hold the width here down the right flank, he draws a further 0.95 fouls P/90.

Joao Pedro was a huge miss for Chelsea in midweek. Sure, he’s not scoring many goals at the minute, but his general play makes them a better side. His hold up play has improved, he’s great at forcing contact, and it’s that ability to draw fouls that interests me here.

The Brazilian is set to be fit after a late knock kept him out of Chelsea’s clash with United, and his 1.80 fouls drawn P/90 should come as a huge boost to his side. Joao Pedro has drawn more fouls than any other player in the Chelsea squad this season, and it’s a selection that’s landed in four of his last five league outings, including his most recent appearance against Man City.

Let’s not forget, Pedro is travelling back to the Amex for the first time since leaving Brighton last summer. He’ll have the bit between his teeth, and two fouls drawn when these sides met earlier this season is an indicator of what to come. He’ll be up against the likes of van Hecke and Dunk here again, and whilst not prolific, they do combine for comfortably over 1.00 fouls P/90.

I’m not convinced that Chelsea are going to bounce back and get a result here, but there’s been a common theme to their games. The Blues have had plenty of possession under Rosenior, and whilst they’ve struggled to make it count, they’ve still been winning plenty of corners.

It does make sense. Chelsea do at least have a bit of pace and dynamism out wide that in theory should allow them to get in behind, and the numbers back that up. Only Newcastle have won more than Chelsea’s 6.18 corners per game this term, and Rosenior’s side have won the corner match bet in 10 of their last 11, only losing the corner count to City in that run.

Even though I firmly believe that Brighton can get a result, I don’t see them having quite as much of the ball as the Blues, and corners aren’t necessarily a key part of their game either. They’ve lost the corner match bet in seven of their last nine, their only win in that run oddly coming against Arsenal. They average just 4.67 corners per game whilst conceding 5.00; all signs point to Chelsea being on top in this market.