Chelsea vs Liverpool
Felix is a machine when it comes to shots. For club and country he’s had at least 1 shot on target in 10 of his last 12 matches.
He’s rapid when it comes to shifting the ball quickly to make room for a shot and is an expert at fashioning chances for himself even when service isn’t great.
No longer under Potter, Felix will be keen to impress and really nail down a starting place.
He averages 1.78 SOT/90 for Chelsea, the highest in the squad. Despite only being there since January, the only player who’s had more shots on target is Kai Havertz.
Liverpool are vulnerable right now and we saw the true extent of that as they were demolished by City on Saturday.
Despite that demolition, Mo Salah still did his part as he opened the scoring with a clinical finish.
Only Darwin Nunez averages more SOT/90. Salah averages 1.28 SOT/90 this season and that doesn’t include penalties, which he’s the designated taker for The Reds.
The Egyptian winger has had 1 or more shots on target in 7 of his last 8 Liverpool matches.
Chelsea’s achilles heel can be just how integral their wing backs are as they’re such a force going forward that they risk being exposed on the counter, a scenario where Mo Salah is an absolute menace.
I first spotted this selection at odds of 1.67, which I thought looked generous. It’s dropped now but I still think it’s good value in a game where there’s a number of players all below the 1.2 mark.
Enzo was booked at the weekend against Aston Villa, in a game where he racked up 3 fouls.
His fouls have basically all come in home games. He made 2 here vs Dortmund and Southampton and also made 1 against Leeds.
Harvey Elliot’s movements in midfield may be exactly what we need here. He’s fouled an average of 1.45 times/90.
Players dropping off in to the pockets is an issue too. Jota returned on Saturday, he’s predicted to play here and is fouled 1.72 times/90. Gakpo is an interesting one too; he was looking to get the ball and drive a lot from deeper areas on Saturday.
If he does this again, his record of picking up 2.32 fouls/90 could be vital here.
Chelsea are a corner machine at home and I fancy them to rack up a few against a wounded Liverpool side.
Chelsea take a hefty average of 6.79 corners per match at home, one of the highest in the Premier League.
With Chillwell and James fit again, it revolutionises Chelsea’s threat and they’re always quick to get the ball wide and look to deliver, a situation which suits a corner bet down to the ground.
Liverpool are prone to shipping corners this season too, away from home they’ve conceded an average of 4.43 corners. It may not sound a lot, but that’s a drastic increase on the 2.77 they concede on average at Anfield.
When looking at other trips to top sides, the stats are interesting.
Liverpool conceded 7 corners against Man City, 5 at Real Madrid, 6 at Newcastle, 6 at Brighton, 5 at Spurs, 6 at United and 4 at Arsenal.