Barcelona vs Real Madrid
I love Vini, he’s such a fantastic player to watch. Quick, direct, skilful and he’s a proper goal scorer now.
He averages 1.23 SOT/90. He’s had at least 1 shot on target in each of his last 5 matches.
When the sides met in La Liga last month, he had 2 shots, 1 on target.
When playing Madrid, Xavi likes to move Ronald Araujo to right back and specifically task him with halting Vinicius.
Araujo is more naturally a centre back. He’s an absolute mountain of a man but he’s also got a good turn of pace. He’s not afraid of throwing himself in to a tackle, especially when it comes to this fixture.
He’s played right back in each of the 3 meetings with Madrid this season and committed a total of 7 fouls (4, 2, 1).
Vinicius is an absolute foul magnet. He’s been fouled 48 times more than the next most fouled Madrid player (Camavinga). He draws a ridiculous 3.83 fouls/90.
He attempts 8.77 take-ons per 90 minutes, which is crazy. If you actually look at that, that means if he’s playing 90 minutes, he’s picking up the ball and attempting to beat his opponent once every 10 minutes.
Carvajal averages 0.93 fouls/90. He’s been very poor recently and it’s a bit of a surprise to see him starting, given Lucas Vasquez’s good performance at the weekend.
He’s made 2+ fouls in 3 of the 4 meetings with Barcelona this season
Also, he’ll be tasked with tracking Gavi. The young starlet is fouled 2.32 times per 90.
In his last 13 starts, Gavi has been fouled at least twice in 12 of those matches. In the 3 meetings with Real Madrid this season, Gavi has been fouled 11 times (4, 4, 3).
1 Carvajal foul at 1.44 looks like an excellent price.
Barca are an absolute machine for corners at home. The huge pitch and their desire to push their wing backs to the byline allows for a lot of potential opportunities to rack up corners.
They average 7.08 per match at the Camp Nou. They’ve managed 4 or more in a huge 92% of home fixtures.
Madrid concede far more corners on the road. They ship an average of 5.50 per game and have conceded 4 or more in 79% of away games; which is very high for a team of their calibre.
In last month’s La Liga meeting on this ground, Barca racked up 8 corners.