Degerfors vs Brommapojkarna
Average goals – Degerfors: 3.35, Bromma: 2.75.
O/1.5 – Degerfors: 95%, Bromma: 81%
O/2.5 – Degerfors: 71%, Bromma: 56%
Degerfors are the side to watch for goals in the Allsvenskan, with only the goal scoring machine of BK Hacken seeing more goals per game on average. Last week brought an end to their over 1.5 streak, but only down to bad luck for anyone backing goals. There was a total of 2.91 xG in the match, with opponents Norrkoping absolutely battering Degerfors for most of the 90 minutes.
Bromma were promoted from the Superetten, and 10th place after 16 games is more than satisfactory for those involved. They average an xG of 1.45, which is decent, but an xGA of 1.57. A lovely balance of being effective in attack, but struggling to keep teams at bay, ideal for a goals bet.
Their xGA rises to an alarming 1.89 in away matches, which is reflected in a big increase in average goals, with their 8 away games averaging 3.38 goals scored/conceded.
This game should see both sides have chances, I fancy both to find the net. The hosts remain the only side in Sweden’s top flight to have not kept a clean sheet.
Stabaek vs Molde
Average goals – Stabaek: 2.73, Molde: 3.56.
O/1.5 – Stabaek: 67%, Molde: 81%
O/2.5: Stabaek: 60%, Molde: 69%
Molde have been playing some excellent football in recent weeks, following a poor start to their Eliteserien title defence. Those early season issues looked to be fading, but a disappointing defeat at Finnish side HJK in midweek, has raised eyebrows again.
Domestically, they’ve won 4 of their last 5, only failing to win against runaway leaders Bodo. Even that was a very good result, as they drew 2-2, despite having 10 men from the 17th minute. That being said, they incredibly survived an xGA of well over 5.00.
Only Viking and Bodo average more match goals than Molde, and only Ham-Kam (100%) can boast a better strike rate on the road for over 2.5 goals.
Molde have the potential to cover this line on their own, when in the groove. They’ve scored 2 or more in each of their last 4 league matches.
Stabaek are in woeful form. They’re winless in 7 league matches, and they were eliminated from the cup by a side 2 tiers below the, comfortably too as Kjelsas ran out 3-1 winners.
They remain relatively consistent scorers though, they netted twice at Ham-Kam last week, but have also found the net against stronger sides, inlcuding 2 against Rosenborg and goals against both Tromso (3rd) and Lillestrom (6th).
Dusseldorf vs Hertha Berlin
Average goals – Dusseldorf: 3.03, Hertha: 3.26.
O/1.5 – Dusseldorf: 79%, Hertha: 88%
O/2.5 – Dusseldorf – 62%, Hertha: 56%
Berlin giants Hertha start life in the 2nd tier with a tricky looking visit to Dusseldorf, who finished 4th in this division last season, and are desperate to make a return to the Bundesliga.
Dusseldorf lost just 1 of their final 13 matches last season , and have had a very strong pre-season, where they remained unbeaten and put up some impressive scorelines. Although Hertha present a new, and very stern test.
They recruited well in the summer too, with 2 notable arrivals from Freiburg in the form of Yannick Englehardt and especially striker Vincent Vermeij. He’s been a consistent scorer in the 3rd tier for years now, and the step up should suit him with plenty of creativity to lay on chances.
Hertha return to the 2nd flight for the first time in a decade. They’ve got a squad here, thanks to retention and some additions, that looks primed for a bounce back. Players like Dodi Lukebakio, who scored 11 Bundesliga goals last season, are streets ahead of the majority of this division.
I’m not a huge believer in H2H fixtures, but it’s a nice thing to look at sometimes. In the modern era, from 2010 onwards, these sides have met 9 times. Every single one has seen 3 or more match goals, with BTTS landing in every meeting as well.
This level of quality has the capital club as 3rd favourites for the league title.
Istra vs Dinamo Zagreb
Average goals – Istra: 2.06, Zagreb: 3.03.
O/1.5 – Istra: 58%, Zagreb: 75%
O/2.5 – Istra: 33%, Zagreb: 58%
Zagreb are Croatia’s dominant force and on their day, they have the potential to obliterate any side in this league.
That being said, an opening day 2-1 defeat to Hadjuk Split might be early signs of some vulnerability from the giants.
Zagreb were hard done by in that opener, creating an xG of 2.07. However an xGA of 1.57, especially on home soil, will be an early cause for concern for Igor Biscan’s side and may have Istra hoping to build on last season’s win here against Zagreb, their first in 10 years.
In reality, a wounded Zagreb are more dangerous than ever, they smashed Astana in European qualifying in midweek by 4 goals to nil. With Luka Ivanusec, who scored 12 times last season; helping himself to a hat-trick.
No side averaged more goals than Zagreb last season and I’d expect much of the same this year.
Hammarby vs Norrkoping
Average goals – Hammarby 2.82, Norrköping 2.75.
O1.5 – Hammarby 82%, Norrköping 94%.
O2.5 – Hammarby 47%, Norrköping 62%.
Hammarby average O1.5 in 86% of home games this season, this number falls to 57% for O2.5 at home. Last week’s loss to Brommapojkarna brought an end to 5 consecutive games with saw O1.5. Hammarby score on average 1.88 goals per game (from 1.48 xG) and conceded 1.38 (from 1.34 xG).
Norrköping averaged O1.5 in 100% of away games this year, and O2.5 in 75% of away fixtures. Their recent 1-0 win against Degerfors saw an end to the goal streaks following 4 straight O2.5 and 15 straight O1.5. Averaging 1.54 goals (from 1.46 xG) and conceding 1.44 (1.38 xGA) this season.
Each of the last 6 competitive head to heads have seen O1.5g and 5 of these games also saw O2.5.
Lillestrom vs HamKam
Average goals – Lillestrom 3.40, Ham-Kam 3.53.
O1.5 – Lillestrom 73%, Ham-Kam 87%
O2.5 – Lillestrom 67%, Ham-Kam 73%
Lillestrom O1.5 and O2.5 in 88% of home fixtures this season. Last week’s 1-0 loss to Haugesund saw an end to both O1.5 and O2.5 streaks, which were at 3 prior to kick off, all of which featured a Lillestrom win. Lillestrom generate 1.68 goals per game from an xG of 2.0, they also conceded at a fair rate – 1.49 goals against from 1.44 xGA.
Ham-Kam have seen each of their away games record O1.5 and O2.5 goals. The visitors are on a 3 game winning streak and a 4 game O2.5 streak. Ham-Kam record 1.38 goals per game from an xG of 1.61; they also concede at a high rate of 1.71 goals per game from an xGA of 1.51.
Head to head, despite a 0-0 result in May, these sides have recorded O2.5 in 5 of the last 7 encounters. With 1.5 in 9 of the last 11 meetings.
Brondby vs Odense
Average goals – Brondby 3.13, Odense 3.13.
O1.5 – Brondby 81%, Odense 84%
O2.5 – Brondby 56%, Odense 59%
Brondby won their opening game 2-1 away to Silkeborg, continuing a run of 3 games featuring O2.5 and a streak of 6 for O1.5. Last season Brondby saw 88% of Home games record O1.5 and 62% saw O2.5. Brondby recorded 1.64 goals from an xG of 1.56, conceding 1.55 goals from an xGA of 1.53.
Odense were denied an opening day win thanks to a 90+5’ Randers goal, drawing 2-2. This result did keep alive a 4 game streak of O2.5 and a 5 game streak of over 1.5 (dating back to last season). Odense saw 81% of away fixtures record O1.5 and 62% of road games saw O2.5.
Head to head, none of the last two games have broken the O2.5 mark. However there is an active streak of O1.5 in the last 14 games (dating back to September of 2017).
Clubb Brugge vs Mechelen
Average goals – Club Brugge 2.85, KV 3.29.
O1.5 – Club Brugge 88%, KV 91%
O2.5 – Club Brugge 56%, KV 68%
Club Brugge saw O1.5 in 88% of Home games last season, O2.5 in 65% of home games as well. Brugge scored 1.62 goals from 1.74 xG, conceding 1.22 goals from 1.41 xGA. Brugge have a current streak of O2.5 in the last two competitive games in Belgium, this streak stands at 7 for O1.5. Brugge have a midweek qualifier against AGF of Denmark so fatigue could be a factor for the hosts, expect goals in this one.
KV Mechelen saw O1.5 in 94% of away game last season, O2.5 in 71%. Mechelen scored 1.41 goals per game despite only creating 1.23 xG, clinical finishing and turning half chances into goals is the interpretation of this. Mechelen also conceded a high 1.76 goals per game from an xGA of 1.74.
Losing to Antwerp in the Super Cup may not be good for confidence but it kept the streak of O1.5 alive, a record now standing at 7 competitive fixtures.
Head to head, O2.5 has come in 8/9 results and O1.5 in each of the last 14 encounters!